Pakistan Autos Report

Published 18 August 2015

  • 59 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Pakistan Autos Report

With Pakistan registering strong vehicle sales growth in FY2014/15, we expect demand momentum to extend into FY2015/16, and forecast sales growth of 17.1%. The positive outlook is underpinned by favourable monetary conditions, which will help to lower credit costs for potential car buyers, while the government's taxi scheme will also continue to spur demand momentum over the coming quarters.

According to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), for FY2014/15 (July - June), passenger car sales expanded by 28.0% y-o-y, while commercial vehicle (CV) sales grew by 52.1% y-o-y, bringing overall auto sales growth to 31.8% y-o-y. Auto sales for FY2014/15 amounted to 184,633 units.

With record-low interest rates lowering borrowing costs for potential car owners since the rate cuts in January, we believe demand momentum will extend into FY2015/16. For the CV segment, we foresee that a cut in general sales tax on tractors to 10% from 17% previously, and an allocation of PKR25bn (USD247mn) for the government's taxi scheme, will boost CV sales. The taxi scheme aims to provide vans and pick-ups, which will be used as taxis in rural areas for mass transportation.

We believe that with the change in tax structure after the announcement of Pakistan's FY2014/15 budget, consumers will prefer to purchase domestically produced vehicles, rather than imported ones. This is due to the government abolishing the 10.0% FED on locally assembled vehicles above 1,800cc while still retaining the 10.0% FED on imported vehicles, creating a bias for cheaper, domestically assembled vehicles.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Production And Sales
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
14
Sales
14
Production
16
Passenger Vehicles
17
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
17
Table: Passenger Car Historical Production And Sales By Model, FY07/08-FY12/13 (CBUs)
18
Commercial Vehicles
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Historical Sales By Manufacturer, 2008/09-2012/13 (CBUs)
20
Motorcycles
21
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
21
Table: Motorcycle Historical Production And Sales By Manufacturer, 2008-2013 (CBUs)
21
Suppliers
23
Macroeconomic Forecast
26
Economic Analysis
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
29
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Index
31
Company Profile
32
Industry Trend Analysis
32
1
33
2
33
3
33
4
34
5
34
Indus Motor
36
Pak Suzuki Motor
38
Honda Atlas
40
Regional Overview
42
Asia Overview
42
Table: Asia Production Investment September 2014-January 2015
43
Global Industry Overview
51
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
51
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
51
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
53
Asia Carries The BRIC States
54
Demographic Forecast
56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025)
57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025)
57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025)
59
Methodology
61
Industry Forecasts
61
Sector-Specific Methodology
62
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Pakistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Pakistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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