Pakistan Food & Drink Report

Published 02 March 2015

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Pakistan Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We expect that Pakistan will become an increasingly important investment destination from a demographic point of view over the long term , provided political issues are addressed successfully. Pakistan's population is increasing rapidly , with the World Bank projecting it to exceed 200mn by 2022 . Urbanisation rates are also increasing, albeit slowly. We see real GDP growth coming in at 4.0% in fiscal year 2014/15, from 4.1% in FY2013/14. Per capita food consumption is forecast to experience strong growth, however this will be from a low base, and consumption is likely to remain significantly lower than other key emerging markets.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency):

  • 2015 per capita food consumption growth: +9.9% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2014 and 2019: +9.9%.

  • 2015 soft drinks volume sales growth: +3.1% y-o-y; CAGR between 2014 and 2019: +3.3%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales growth: +8.5% y-o-y; CAGR between 2014 and 2019: +9.8%.

Key Company Trends

Government Urged To Pass Food Security Bill : In January 2015, it was reported that the government of Pakistan would have to pass a food security bill immediately if the country is to have any chance of developing its horticultural exports. Leaders of a local project, Trade Related Technical Assistance (TRTAII), which is financed by The UN Industrial Development Organization and the EU, urged the country to pass the Naphis Bill as soon as possible. The country currently does not have a structured, effective and competent food security system, which the proposed bill seeks to address. TRTAII said that the new bill will result in immediate economic benefits for the country.

Nestle Pakistan Profits Increase 33% In H114 : In August 2014, it was reported that Nestle Pakistan reported a 33% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in profits to PKR4.63bn (USD45.50mn) in H114, ending June 30, compared with PKR3.49bn (USD34.30mn) in H113. Earnings per...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
14
Consumer Outlook
14
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
18
Canned Food
18
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
19
Confectionery
19
Fish
19
Dairy
20
Table: Dairy - Production, Consumption & Trade, Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
20
Drink
21
Hot Drinks
21
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Soft Drinks
23
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
25
Alcoholic Drinks
28
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
29
Mass Grocery Retail
30
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
32
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2020
32
Trade
33
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
41
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
44
Pakistan Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Market Overview
46
Food
46
Food Processing
46
Leading Players
46
Confectionery
47
Agriculture
47
Dairy
48
Drink
49
Soft Drinks
49
Hot Drinks
49
Alcoholic Drinks
50
Mass Grocery Retail
51
Leading Players
52
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Food
53
Key Industry Trends And Developments
53
Drink
56
Key Industry Trends And Developments
56
Mass Grocery Retail
58
Key Industry Trends And Developments
58
Competitive Landscape
59
Table: Key Players in Pakistan's Food & Drink Sector
59
Table: Key Players in Pakistan's Mass Grocery Retail Industry
60
Company Profile
61
Hilal Confectionery
61
Nestl- Pakistan
64
Unilever Pakistan
67
Shezan
69
Murree Brewery
71
Coca-Cola Beverages Pakistan Limited (CCBPL)
73
Tapal Tea
75
Utility Stores Corporation (USC)
77
Global Industry Overview
79
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
88
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
92
Glossary
93
Food & Drink
93
Mass Grocery Retail
93
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Sector-Specific Methodology
96
Sources
96
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
97
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
98
Table: Weighting
99

The Pakistan Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Pakistan Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Pakistan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc