BMI View: The consumer outlook for Pakistan will be supported by a very positive demographic profile. However, an uncertain political outlook casts a dark cloud over the economy, which may affect its ability to perform well over the coming years , and therefore informs our relatively weak annual real GDP growth forecast of 4.1% over the next decade. Although the consumer story has substantial potential, it could be weighed down significantly by a weak economic outlook. Per capita food consumption is fore cast to experience strong growth - however, this will be from a low base , and consumption is likely to remain significantly lower than other key emerging markets.
Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency):
2015 per capita food consumption growth: +9.9% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2014 and 2019: +9.9%.
2015 soft drinks volume sales growth: +3.1% y-o-y; CAGR between 2014 and 2019: +3.2%.
2015 mass grocery retail sales growth: +9.5% y-o-y; CAGR between 2014 and 2019: +10.5%.
Key Company Trends
Coca-Cola Sets Out Investment in Pakistan: In October 2015 Coca-Cola unveiled plans to invest about USD350mn in Pakistan. The company is establishing three new plants in Karachi, Multan and Islamabad. The new plants will enable job creation and boost economic development in the regions. Coca-Cola is also focusing on increasing production, marketing and other commercial activities in the country, according to president for the company's Eurasia and Africa Group, Nathan Kalumbu.
Mars Pledges Sustainable Rice Standard: In autumn 2015 Mars Inc pledged to sustainably source 100% of its rice by 2020, announcing what it called the 'first global standard for sustainable rice'. Mars plans to use the standard as a benchmark against which to assess its rice supply chains: identifying where there are gaps and developing strategies to improve sustainability. It has already begun piloting implementation of the standard with rice farmers in Pakistan and India.
Key Risks to Outlook
The recent improvement in the security situation, as shown by the sharp drop in civilian casualties since the start of 2015, poses an upside risk to the economic outlook. While it is too early to tell whether the reduction in casualties will be sustained, an improved security situation would certainly encourage increased investment inflows. From an economic perspective, failure of the privatisation drive to gain traction, potentially due to a rise in union opposition to such reforms or a flare-up in terrorist activity, could deliver a huge blow to the government's efforts to improve the efficiency of its state-run enterprises and improve its overall fiscal picture.
The Pakistan Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Pakistan Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Pakistan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Pakistan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
- Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
- Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
- Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.
Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.
Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.