BMI V iew: The freight industry in Pakistan is forecast to grow moderately over the medium term as trade growth is increasing and investment is being put into freight infrastructure. W eaker demand for commodities and lower oil prices have impacted the economy in Pakistan over the last year and also subdued freight transport growth. Nevertheless, reform program me s enhancing growth in private consumption are improving GDP growth, and thus also benefiting road and air freight. The country's efforts to diversify trade away from its current core trade partners could also enhance the rail and road freight sectors over the medium term.
Pakistan's manufacturing growth momentum has picked up in recent months despite the ongoing contraction in exports. The Index of Large-Scale Manufacturers posted a growth rate of 5.6% y-o-y in June 2015 on a three-month moving average basis, marking a strong pick-up towards the end of fiscal year 2014/15 (July-June), supporting our view for a slight acceleration in growth in 2016 to 4.3%. While manufacturing represents just 14.0% of GDP according to the GDP by output statistics, this figure understates the importance of the sector owing to the fact that GDP includes several service sector components that leverage from the manufacturing sector. As such, a healthy manufacturing sector is crucial to the overall state of the economy and its freight volumes.
We forecast that Pakistan will see comfortable macroeconomic growth over our short- and medium-term forecast period, and highlight that the country's efforts to diversify trade out of its current core trade partners could pay dividends to the freight sector in particular in the long term.
We expect growth for all freight modes in Pakistan over the medium term, with the strongest forecast for air freight. The freight mode also has the most potential to grow due to its small size and room for improvement and development. In terms of future investment in Pakistan's freight transport network, which could benefit the country's freight transport operations, BMI highlights that according to our Infrastructure Key Projects Database, USD3.34bn is set to be invested in the medium term. This is fairly evenly distributed between roads and bridges, airports, rail development and airports, suggesting that there should be developments in all of Pakistan's freight transport sector in future.
Headline Industry Data
2015 air freight tonnage estimated to grow by 3.43% and forecast to grow by 4.01% in 2016.
2015 rail freight tonnage estimated to increase by 2.70% and forecast to grow by 2.74% in 2016.
2015 road freight tonnage estimated to increase by 2.30% and forecast to grow by 2.40% in 2016.
2015 total trade (real terms) estimated to rise 4.00% and forecast to grow by 5.00% in 2016
The Pakistan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Pakistan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.