Pakistan Freight Transport Report

Published 15 December 2014

  • 61 pages
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Pakistan Freight Transport Report

The freight mix in Pakistan is set to perform moderately in both the short and medium term, with growth constricted somewhat by the parlous state of many integral economies at present. Also, domestic strife, such as the road blockade in Punjab in August 2014, has had a detrimental effect on freight output and such scenarios could flare up again into 2015.

Export cargo worth USD600mn came to a standstill in August 2014 due to a road blockade in the province of Punjab, according to exporters and shipping line sources and reported by Business Recorder. The tussle between the Pakistani government and opposition political parties - Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Pakistan Awami Tehrik - has resulted in a virtual collapse to businesses, trade, social and exports activities in the province. This could have a significant detrimental impact on the Pakistan freight industry should further blockades take place going forward.

The volume of containerised cargo calling to harbour from upcountry has registered a minimum 40% decline during the past week and is likely to rise to 50% if orders are not restored immediately, according to Mushtaq Ali Shah, President Captain, All Pakistan Shipping Association, speaking at the time of the incident.

While these economic headwinds continue to circle, as well as those from the global economy, the impact on Pakistan's freight industry will be that growth is set to be muted during 2015 across all modes. That said, this year is still set to see improvements in both the rail and air freight sectors, if not the maritime sector. The outperformer in terms of annual tonnage growth will be maritime, however, with both the port of Karachi expected to witness 4.90% year-on-year (y-o-y) increases in 2015, respectively. Air freight will see y-o-y growth of 3.31%, while rail freight is anticipated to grow by 2.70% y-o-y.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 tonnage throughput at the port of Karachi is forecast to grow by 4.90% to 43.38mn tonnes.

  • 2015 tonnage...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Air Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Maritime Freight, 2012-19
16
Table: Rail Freight, 2012-19
16
Table: Trade Overview, 2012-19
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2012-19
17
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2005-2012, USDmn
18
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2005-2012, USDmn
19
Market Overview
20
Industry Trends And Developments
25
Company Profile
31
Pakistan Railways (PR)
31
Mercury Logistics Pakistan (MLP)
34
Pakistan International Airlines Cargo (PIA Cargo)
36
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC)
39
Political Outlook
41
Foreign Policy
41
Long-Term Political Outlook
43
Table: Scenario Matrix: Evolution Of State
46
Table: Scenario Matrix: Centrifugal Versus Centripetal Forces
48
Table: Pakistan Political Overview
48
Macroeconomic Forecasts
50
Economic Activity
50
Table: Economic Activity (Pakistan 2009-2018)
53
Demographic Forecast
54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025)
57
Methodology
59
Industry Forecast Methodology
59
Sector-Specific Methodology
60
Sources
61

The Pakistan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Pakistan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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