Pakistan Infrastructure Report

Published 02 December 2014

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Pakistan Infrastructure Report

BMI View:   Our outlook for Pakistan's construction sector remains largely subdued for 2015 and beyond. Domestic political uncertainty is undermining confidence in the market, and ongoing security risks continue to deter foreign investors. High levels of government debt and rising inflation are restricting public spending, and while many infrastructure projects are planned or underway, these continue to suffer from escalating costs and delays.

Pakistan's infrastructure network, starting as it does from a low base, does offer enormous long term potential. The country benefits from a strong regional location, good relations with powerhouse China and a large potential labour pool. If it is able to secure political stability and address corruption at high levels in order to create a more attractive investment environment we may see further growth in Pakistan's construction sector in the future, at present though, our forecasts for growth are limited.

Key developments include:

  • The 2014/15 state budget PKR205bn of investment in energy projects, PKR113bn in road projects and PKR77bn in rail transport projects as well as financing measures to boost the residential construction sector.

  • Pakistan's Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has again delayed the deadline for prequalification applications to build the 2,160MW Dasu Stage 1 hydroelectric project on the Indus River. Interested parties can now submit applications by February 27 2015.

  • China has agreed to invest USD45.6bn via Chinese banks and investment firms in a range of energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan. In a separate project China has also agreed to invest USD1bn in residential infrastructure projects.

  • Overall, we expect Pakistan's construction sector to slow in 2015, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8%. Similar growth is forecast for the remainder of the forecast period, with industry value expected to reach USD9.7bn in 2024, up from USD6.1bn in 2015.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Market Overview
7
Building Materials
9
Asia
9
SWOT Analysis
16
Pakistan Infrastructure SWOT
16
Industry Forecast Scenario
17
Table: Pakistan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
17
Table: Pakistan Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
18
Construction and Infrastructure Overview
19
Major Infrastructure Developments and Key Projects
21
Transport Infrastructure Overview
21
Major Projects - Transport
22
Table: Major Projects - Transport
22
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Overview
24
Major Projects - Energy & Utilities
26
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
26
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Overview
33
Business Environment
34
Pakistan Business Environment Overview
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Regional Overview
35
Asia Pacific Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Asia Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Company Monitor
42
Gammon Pakistan
42
National Construction
43
Descon Engineering
44
Global Overview
45
Methodology
52
Industry Forecasts
52
Construction Industry
53
Data Methodology
53
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
53
Construction
55
Capital Investment
55
Construction Sector Employment
56
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
57
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
58
Project Finance Ratings
59
Table: Design And Construction Phase
60
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
61
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
62
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
63
Sources
64

The Pakistan Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Pakistan Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc