Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 11 August 2015

  • 140 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: While a string of recent exploration successes boosted Pakistan's oil and gas reserves in 2014, we forecast the country's reserves to continue declining over the next decade due to excessive use and lack of new significant discoveries. Nonetheless, recent discoveries and greater private sector involvement in the upstream sector pose an upside risk to our forecast and could stimulate much needed investment thus helping the country temper or reverse the negative trend.

Headline Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
BMI/EIA
Proven oil reserves, mn bbl 247.5 300.0 400.0 374.2 358.0 326.1 288.5
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 85.2 98.2 100.6 102.6 103.8 105.9 107.8
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 223.4 201.4 224.1 241.9 237.3 232.9 230.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 437.3 454.8 468.4 477.8 482.6 502.8 523.4
Natural gas proven reserves, bcm 679.6 754.6 707.9 678.2 648.9 620.0 591.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 38.9 38.9 39.3 39.7 39.3 38.9 38.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 38.9 38.9 39.9 41.4 41.4 42.2 42.6

Key industry developments:

  • According to reports in July 2015, Pakistan has started building a 700km pipelin e from the western Pakistani Gwadar port to Nawabshah in Sindh to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from China, according to Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi (Voice of America). China will fund 85% of the project costs and will also undertake installation of the pipeline. The project is expected to begin in October and will be built in 30 months.

  • In July 2015, UK-based energy explorer Premier Oil has put its Pakistan operations up for sale after receiving an 'attractive' offer from an unnamed suitor, according to CEO Tony Durrant. The...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Pakistan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Pakistan 2019-2024)
11
Table: Risks To Pakistan's Water Sector
17
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Pakistan Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
22
Table: Oil Production (Pakistan 2013-2018)
22
Table: Oil Production (Pakistan 2019-2024)
22
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Pakistan 2013-2018)
24
Table: Gas Production (Pakistan 2019-2024)
24
Refining
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Pakistan 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Pakistan 2019-2024)
27
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Pakistan 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Pakistan 2019-2024)
30
Gas Consumption
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Pakistan 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Pakistan 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Oil
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Pakistan 2013-2018)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Pakistan 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
47
Industry Risk Reward Index
47
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
48
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
48
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
51
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
51
Pakistan Risk/Reward Index
54
Market Overview
56
Pakistan Energy Market Overview
56
Overview/State Role
56
Government Policy
58
Licensing Rounds
59
Table: Key Upstream Players
60
Table: Key Downstream Players
60
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
61
Oil Refineries
61
Table: Refineries In Pakistan
61
Oil Storage Facilities
62
Oil Terminals/Ports
62
Oil Pipelines
63
LNG Terminals
63
Competitive Landscape
69
Competitive Landscape Summary
69
Table: Key Players - Pakistan Oil & Gas Sector
70
Company Profile
71
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL)
71
Pakistan Petroleum (PPL)
75
Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
80
Pakistan Oilfields
84
Shell Pakistan
87
Other Summaries
90
Regional Overview
98
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
98
Global Industry Overview
103
Global Energy Market Overview
103
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
107
Appendix
109
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
109
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
109
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
110
Asia - Regional Appendix
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
121
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
122
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
123
Pakistan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
124
Pakistan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Pakistan 2013-2018)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Pakistan 2019-2024)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Pakistan 2013-2018)
128
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Pakistan 2019-2024)
129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Pakistan 2013-2018)
131
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Pakistan 2019-2024)
132
Glossary
133
Table: Glossary Of Terms
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Source
137
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
137
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
139
Table: Weighting
140

The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Pakistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Pakistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Pakistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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