Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 11 May 2015

  • 149 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: While a string of recent exploration successes boosted Pakistan's oil and gas reserves in 2014, we forecast the country's reserves to continue declining over the next decade due to excessive use and lack of new significant discoveries. Nonetheless, recent discoveries and greater private sector involvement in the upstream sector pose an upside risk to our forecast and could stimulate much needed investment thus helping the country temper or reverse the negative trend.

Headline Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 85.0 87.6 89.7 91.5 92.5 94.4 96.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 157.0 201.4 224.1 241.9 237.3 232.9 230.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 455.2 473.4 487.7 497.4 502.4 523.0 544.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 38.9 38.9 39.3 39.7 39.3 38.9 38.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 38.9 38.9 39.9 41.4 41.4 42.2 42.6

Key industry developments:

  • According to reports in April 2015, China may fund the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline as Pakistan is negotiating with China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau (CPP) to build 700km of the pipeline. The pipeline would be constructed from the western Pakistani Gwadar port to Nawabshah in Sindh. CPP would invest USD1.5bn and also build the liquefied natural gas terminal in Gwadar for USD800mn. The construction of the pipeline is likely to be completed in two years.

  • In March 2015, state-owned Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) hit oil at the exploratory well Palli Deep-I in Tando Allah Yar in Sindh Province, Pakistan, according to a company filing with the London Stock Exchange. 'Significant reserves of oil have been found at Well Palli Deep # 01 in (Basal Sand & Middle Sand) Lower Goru Sand formation which produced 1,095 barrels of oil...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Pakistan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Pakistan 2019-2024)
11
Table: Risks To Pakistan's Water Sector
17
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Pakistan Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
21
Table: Oil Production (Pakistan 2013-2018)
21
Table: Oil Production (Pakistan 2019-2024)
22
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Pakistan 2013-2018)
24
Table: Gas Production (Pakistan 2019-2024)
24
Refining
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Pakistan 2013-2018)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Pakistan 2019-2024)
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Pakistan 2013-2018)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Pakistan 2019-2024)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Pakistan 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Pakistan 2019-2024)
31
Trade - Oil
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Pakistan 2013-2018)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Pakistan 2019-2024)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
44
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
45
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
47
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Pakistan Risk/Reward Index
50
Market Overview
52
Pakistan Energy Market Overview
52
Overview/State Role
52
Government Policy
54
Licensing Rounds
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
59
Oil Refineries
59
Table: Refineries In Pakistan
59
Oil Storage Facilities
60
Oil Terminals/Ports
60
Oil Pipelines
61
LNG Terminals
61
Competitive Landscape
68
Competitive Landscape Summary
68
Table: Key Players - Pakistan Oil & Gas Sector
69
Company Profile
70
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL)
70
Pakistan Petroleum (PPL)
75
Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
80
Pakistan Oilfields
84
Shell Pakistan
87
Other Summaries
90
Regional Overview
98
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
98
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
98
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
101
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
102
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
106
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
107
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
109
Global Industry Overview
112
Oil Price Outlook
112
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
112
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
113
Appendix
120
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
120
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
120
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
121
Asia - Regional Appendix
122
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
125
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
126
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
127
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
128
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
129
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
130
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
131
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
132
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
133
Pakistan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
134
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Pakistan 2013-2018)
134
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Pakistan 2019-2024)
134
Pakistan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
135
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Pakistan 2013-2018)
135
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Pakistan 2019-2024)
136
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Pakistan 2013-2018)
137
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Pakistan 2019-2024)
138
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Pakistan 2013-2018)
140
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Pakistan 2019-2024)
141
Glossary
142
Table: Glossary Of Terms
142
Methodology
144
Industry Forecast Methodology
144
Source
146
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
146
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
148
Table: Weighting
149

The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Pakistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Pakistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Pakistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc