BMI View: While a string of recent exploration successes boosted Pakistan's oil and gas in the past few years, we forecast the country's reserves to continue declining over the next decade due to excessive use and lack of new significant discoveries. Nonetheless, recent discoveries and greater private sector involvement in the upstream sector pose an upside risk to our forecast and could stimulate much needed investment , thus helping the country temper or reverse the negative trend.
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||85.2||98.2||100.6||102.6||103.8||105.9||107.8|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||223.4||201.4||224.1||241.9||237.3||232.9||230.0|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||437.3||454.8||468.4||477.8||482.6||502.8||523.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||38.9||38.9||39.3||39.7||39.3||38.9||38.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||38.9||38.9||39.9||41.4||41.4||42.2||42.6|
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts:
Rostec's plan to build a USD2.5bn gas pipeline in Pakistan from Lahore to Karachi will improve domestic pipeline connectivity, which supports our forecasts for domestic gas demand to grow steadily over the next 10 years.
On September 1 2015, the Pakistani government increased the price of natural gas for domestic customers and industry. We believe that higher domestic gas prices in Pakistan will invite greater international investment in its E&P sector and pose an upside risk to the country's long-term gas production growth and minimise the cost burden of LNG imports on the government.
Completion of the Baluchistan Oil Refinery has boosted Pakistan's refining capacity to 402,000b/d in 2015.
In October, Austrian oil and gas company OMV discovered gas in the Latif South-1 exploration well, located in Pakistan's Latif exploration licence.
In September, Hungarian oil group Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari Nyrt made an oil and natural gas discovery in the Karak block in Pakistan.
In September, Pakistan-based Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) made a new discovery at the exploratory well Aradin-I at the Khewari exploratory licence in Khairpur District in Sindh Province, Pakistan.
In September, Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) made a gas and condensate discovery at its Fazl X-1 exploration well in the Block 2568-13 in Matiari District in Sindh Province, Pakistan.
In August, PPL hit petroleum at the Kabir X-1 exploration well in the Gambat South exploration licence in the Sanghar district of the Sindh region.
The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Pakistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Pakistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Pakistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.