BMI View: While a string of recent exploration successes boosted Pakistan's oil and gas reserves in 2014, we forecast the country's reserves to continue declining over the next decade due to excessive use and lack of new significant discoveries. Nonetheless, recent discoveries and greater private sector involvement in the upstream sector pose an upside risk to our forecast and could stimulate much needed investment thus helping the country temper or reverse the negative trend.
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||85.0||87.6||89.7||91.5||92.5||94.4||96.2|
|Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d||157.0||201.4||224.1||241.9||237.3||232.9||230.0|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||455.2||473.4||487.7||497.4||502.4||523.0||544.2|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||38.9||38.9||39.3||39.7||39.3||38.9||38.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||38.9||38.9||39.9||41.4||41.4||42.2||42.6|
Key industry developments:
According to reports in April 2015, China may fund the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline as Pakistan is negotiating with China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau (CPP) to build 700km of the pipeline. The pipeline would be constructed from the western Pakistani Gwadar port to Nawabshah in Sindh. CPP would invest USD1.5bn and also build the liquefied natural gas terminal in Gwadar for USD800mn. The construction of the pipeline is likely to be completed in two years.
In March 2015, state-owned Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) hit oil at the exploratory well Palli Deep-I in Tando Allah Yar in Sindh Province, Pakistan, according to a company filing with the London Stock Exchange. 'Significant reserves of oil have been found at Well Palli Deep # 01 in (Basal Sand & Middle Sand) Lower Goru Sand formation which produced 1,095 barrels of oil per day at 32/64 inch choke size,' said the firm in a statement.
Pakistan-based Engro Corporation received its first shipment of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) on March 26 2015. Qatargas reportedly sold the LNG at between USD8 and USD9 per million British Thermal Units (mnBTU).
In February 2015, Australian resources company BHP Billiton informed about its decision to divest from its gas business in Pakistan to a unit of Hashoo Group for an undisclosed amount. The deal is likely to be completed in Q415 and is subject to local regulatory approval. BHP Billiton is the operator of the Zamzama gas field, where it holds a 38.5% stake, and processing plants in Pakistan.
In December 2014, Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) has hit another gas-condensate discovery with the exploratory well Kinza X-1 in district Sanghar in Sindh. The discovery was the fourth in the Gambat South Block, following Wafiq, Shahdad and Sharf gas-condensate discoveries.
In early December 2014, state-owned Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) has discovered hydrocarbons at the Jand 1 exploratory well in Attock district, Punjab province in Dakhni ML. Earlier in November 2014, the company discovered oil from its exploratory well Jarwar-I on NIM Block in Tando Allah Yar, Sindh, Pakistan.
According to reports in September 2014, Pakistan planned to sell shares in state-owned Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) to raise around USD815mn, reports Reuters. The sale should be a part of an initiative by the Pakistani government to privatise 68 companies and raise about USD5bn in the next two years to stabilise the ailing economy.