BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for the Pakistani mobile market going forward into our current forecast period through to 2020. Mobilink 's plan to acquire Warid received regulatory approval and the consolidation process is now underway. This will put significant pressure on competitors, especially CMPak (Zong), which has few strategic options other than to proceed with a USD1bn investment in its mobile-only business. The deal would not create an excessively-powerful player, but renewed price competition is expected and the negative impact on ARPUs can only be offset by increased uptake of premium services. This will be difficult in the prepaid-centric market, but the merger will at least motivate reviews of current business strategies.
|Fast 3G/4G Adoption to Continue|
|Pakistan Mobile Market Forecasts|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, operators, PTA|
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
3G/4G mobile users totalled 23.166mn at the end of 2015, representing 18.4% of the total mobile market. Although increased usage of non-voice services is reported, gains are neutralised by high taxes and termination rates as well as subsidised expansion into rural areas.
Pakistan will hold another spectrum auction in June 2016, this time auctioning off one block of 10MHz paired spectrum in the 850MHz band for an estimated USD395mn. This comes at a time when the national demand for wireless broadband and mobile data is growing rapidly.
The regulatory approval for the Mobilink-Warid deal will solidify the market leader's pole position and exert pressure on other operators, while perhaps leading to stiffer price competition.
Underinvestment by PTCL in wireline infrastructure and the limited reach of alternative players curtails the expansion of broadband services. The high cost of broadband and connected devices means that next-generation networks would, in any case, be under-utilised for many years.
The Pakistan Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Pakistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Pakistan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Pakistan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Pakistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.