BMI View: Warid's 4G LTE network is its most attractive asset and is the primary attraction for Mobilink as it prepares to take over Pakistan's smallest mobile network operator. Consolidation would put additional pressure on Telenor, but acquisitions are unlikely to feature in its competitive response.
The merger between VimpelCom-owned Mobilink and Abu Dhabi Group-owned Warid Telecom would shrink Pakistan's mobile market from five players to four and entrench Mobilink as the largest player. We believe the putative deal would not create an excessively powerful player and therefore expect there to be little regulatory or industry opposition on this front. Second-ranked Telenor Pakistan will see the distance between itself and the market leader widen appreciatively and we believe it may push the regulator to demand the new entity divest excess spectrum and infrastructure in order to ensure a level playing-field. In any subsequent jockeying for control of these assets, Telenor has the financial means to outbid potential rivals. Excess 3G/4G frequencies held by Mobilink-Warid would give Telenor the means to deepen its coverage of metropolitan markets and pursue higher-value customers.
|Fast 3G/4G Adoption to Continue|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
There were 18.041mn 3G/4G mobile subscriptions in Pakistan at the end of September 2015, representing 14.9% of the total mobile market.
Average revenues per user are expected to stabilize, as higher revenue from data usage is neutralized by expansion into rural, economically less-developed regions due to support by the Universal Service Fund (USF) and an ongoing reliance on basic services there, as well as government-enforced network outages in light of security concerns.
There were 3.141mn public switched telephone network (PSTN) connections at the end of June 2015, largely unchanged from 3.172mn a year earlier. Incumbent Pakistan...
The Pakistan Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Pakistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Pakistan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Pakistan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Pakistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.