Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Strong output growth from fields associated with large LNG export projects will allow PNG's net LNG exports to more than double over the next decade. The country is on course to overtake Indonesia and Brunei, by 2022 and 2019 respectively, to become the third largest LNG exporter in Asia. Condensates output from these gas developments will allow PNG to remain a net exporter of crude oil and liquids, though underutilisation of existing refining capacity means that the country remains dependen t on fuels imports.

Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: JODI, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 35.1 52.4 75.6 75.7 74.8 77.1 79.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 21.2 12.3 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 23.1 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 4.6 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 10.7 12.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • OilSearch is planning to take over InterOil for USD2.2bn. The deal will allow both Total and OilSearch to increase stakes in the Papua LNG project, demonstrating their confidence in the PNG LNG sector.

  • Puma Energy is undertaking upgrade works at its Napa Napa refinery, following months of closure, to improve the facility's feedstock flexibility and production efficiency. The firm is also seeking government approval for a potential capacity expansion, though underutilisation of existing capacity suggests that this is unlikely to go through.

  • ExxonMobil is seeking to add a third train at its PNG LNG project by developing the P'nyang field - for which a final investment decision is expected to be given in 2017.

  • PNG will remain a net exporter of crude oil and liquids. The country's Kutubu Blend (now blended with condensates from PNG LNG) is sold to private trading firms such as BP and Trafigura for sales into the regional market, including Singapore and Australia.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
10
Upstream Projects
11
Table: Papua New Guinea - Key Upstream Projects
11
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
14
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
18
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
18
Refining
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
24
Gas Consumption
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
27
Trade - Oil
28
Crude Oil: Latest Updates
28
Crude Oil: Structural Trends
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
30
Refined Fuels: Latest Updates
30
Refined Fuels: Structural Trends
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
35
Industry Risk/Reward Index
36
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
38
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
39
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Industry Risk/Reward Index
42
Upstream Index
42
Downstream Index
42
Market Overview
43
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview
43
Regulatory Structure
43
Licensing Regime
43
Table: O&G Licenses In PNG
44
Fiscal Regime
44
Table: Papua New Guinea Fiscal Regime
44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
45
Table: Oil Refineries
45
Service Stations
45
Oil Storage
45
LNG Terminals
45
Table: LNG Terminals in Papua New Guinea
45
Gas Pipelines
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Company Profile
49
InterOil
49
Table: InterOil - Major Current Assets
50
Table: InterOil - Key Financial Data
50
Oil Search
51
Table: OilSearch - Major Current Assets
52
Table: OilSearch - Key Financial Data
52
Regional Overview
53
Asia Regional Overview
53
Glossary
61
Table: Glossary Of Terms
61
Methodology
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Source
65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
65
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
67
Table: Weighting
68

The Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Papua New Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Papuan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Papua New Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Papuan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Papuan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Papua New Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.