Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 July 2015

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Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: ExxonMobil has been granted a production licence at the P'nyang field enabling it to potentially move forward with an expansion of the PNG LNG facility . The government continues to promote new LNG projects. With Total's flow testing of the Elk/Antelope prospect already in progress, a new LNG project concept could materialise by the end of the year.

Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 29.3 34.7 40.1 47.9 47.7 46.7 44.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 5.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 11.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 18.9 20.1 21.9 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.4 21.7

The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • InterOil has started flow testing at the Antelope-5 well in the Elk-Antelope gas field in Papua New Guinea (PNG) as part of the field appraisal.

  • Kina Petroleum completed preparations to spud and test two exploration wells in the production licence 337 onshore PNG in March 2015.

  • In January 2015, ExxonMobil was granted a petroleum development licence for the P'nyang field, supporting our view that it will be used for an expansion of the PNG LNG project.

  • Total continues with its appraisal work on the Elk/Antelope fields with the sixth well due to be spud in Q215. An extended flow test will follow and potentially a FID in 2016.

  • InterOil is continuing its eight well drilling programme after discoveries at Raptor and Bobcat in 2014. The company ordered further survey of PPL474 and 476 on its quest to shore up resources for an LNG facility.

  • In January 2015,

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
12
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Papua New Guinea Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
18
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
26
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
33
Industry Risk Reward Index
36
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
37
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
37
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
39
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
39
Papua New Guinea - Risk/Reward Index
42
PNG Upstream Index
42
PNG Downstream Index
42
Market Overview
43
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview
43
Regulatory Structure
43
Licensing Regime
44
Fiscal Regime
44
Table: Papua New Guinea Fiscal Regime
44
Energy Trade
45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Downstream Projects
46
Service Stations
46
Oil Storage
46
LNG Terminals
47
Gas Pipelines
48
Competitive Landscape
49
Competitive Landscape Summary
49
Table: Key Players - PNG Oil And Gas Sector
50
Table: Upstream Players
50
Table: Downstream Players
50
Company Profile
51
InterOil
51
Oil Search
56
Other Summaries
62
Regional Overview
70
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
70
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
70
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
73
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
74
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
78
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
79
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
81
Global Industry Overview
84
Oil Price Outlook
84
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
84
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
85
Appendix
92
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
92
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
92
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
93
Asia - Regional Appendix
94
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
101
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
103
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
104
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
105
Papua New Guinea - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
106
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
106
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
106
Papua New Guinea - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
113
Glossary
114
Table: Glossary Of Terms
114
Methodology
116
Industry Forecast Methodology
116
Source
118
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
118
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
120
Table: Weighting
121

The Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Papua New Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Papuan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Papua New Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Papuan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Papuan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Papua New Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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