Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Expansions to ExxonMobil's PNG LNG project and the likely commencement of production at Total's Elk-Antelope gas field will lead a dramatic growth in PNG's natural gas production and LNG exports over the next 10 years.

Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 28.1 34.0 73.1 79.9 78.8 76.8 74.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 4.7 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 11.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 17.5 18.6 20.2 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.6 24.0
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • A significant ramp-up in its LNG exports, driven by the likes of PNG LNG and Papua LNG projects, is set to propel PNG to become the third largest LNG exporter in the Asia-Pacific from 2021, overtaking Indonesia.

  • Despite underinvestment in oil developments, PNG's crude oil and liquids production will remain largely stable over 2015-2024, supported by associated condensates output from gas developments associated with large LNG export ventures.

  • The Elk-Antelope joint venture (JV) has chosen Caution Bay near Port Moresby as the site to construct PNG's second standalone LNG export terminal, Papua LNG, once a FID is made. The JV is targeting FID in 2016-2017.

  • ExxonMobil's PNG LNG facility shipped its first cargo from train 1 to TEPCO in Japan on May 25. The project is now running at full capacity and has been able to begin term contracts ahead of schedule.

  • In early June Horizon Oil was given the development licence for the Stanley Gas Project leading to the drilling of two wells and installation of facilities. The move achieves the conditions required for Osaka Gas to take a 40% stake in the project.

  • Following a temporary closure in August 2015 due to disagreements with the PNG Customs over tax payments, Puma Energy's Napa Napa refinery has resumed normal operations. Improvements to the facility's production efficiency and run rates will help to reduce the country's dependence on refined fuels imports in the long term.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
12
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Papua New Guinea Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
17
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
25
Trade - Oil
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
29
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
32
Industry Risk Reward Index
36
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
37
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
37
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
40
Papua New Guinea - Risk/Reward Index
43
PNG Upstream Index
43
PNG Downstream Index
43
Market Overview
44
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview
44
Regulatory Structure
44
Licensing Regime
44
Table: O&G Licenses In PNG
45
Fiscal Regime
45
Table: Papua New Guinea Fiscal Regime
45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Downstream Projects
46
Service Stations
46
Oil Storage
47
LNG Terminals
47
Gas Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
49
Competitive Landscape Summary
49
Table: Key Players - PNG Oil And Gas Sector
50
Table: Upstream Players
50
Table: Downstream Players
50
Company Profile
51
InterOil
51
Oil Search
57
Other Summaries
63
Regional Overview
71
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
71
Global Industry Overview
76
Global Energy Market Overview
76
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
76
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
80
Appendix
82
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
82
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
82
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
83
Asia - Regional Appendix
84
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
93
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
94
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
95
Papua New Guinea - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
96
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
96
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
96
Papua New Guinea - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
98
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2013-2018)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Papua New Guinea 2019-2024)
103
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Terms
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Source
108
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
108
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
110
Table: Weighting
111

The Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Papua New Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Papuan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Papua New Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Papuan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Papuan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Papua New Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.