Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: PNG is on course to become the third largest LNG exporter in the Asia-Pacific by 2019, supported by output from ExxonMobil's PNG LNG project and Total's Papua LNG project, which is expected to come online in the latter half of the decade. Longer-term upside risks to our forecasts remain, with a potential for a third standalone LNG project based off Horizon Oil's Stanley gas project.

Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 34.2 73.3 80.0 79.0 77.0 74.1 75.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 4.6 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 10.7 14.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 18.9 20.6 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.1 24.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 20.2 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.1
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • A significant ramp-up in its LNG exports, driven by the likes of PNG LNG and Papua LNG projects, is set to propel PNG to become the third largest LNG exporter in the Asia-Pacific by 2019, overtaking Indonesia and Brunei.

  • Despite underinvestment in oil developments, PNG's crude oil and liquids production will remain largely stable over 2016-2025, supported by associated condensates output from gas developments associated with large LNG export ventures.

  • Independent gas certification process has begun at the Elk-Antelope gas field, marking yet another step forward in the field's gradual move towards a final investment decision (FID). Following the process, the Papua LNG JV plans to agree upon a final development concept for the project.

  • Improved production efficiency and utilisation rate at the Napa Napa refinery will see PNG remain a small net exporter of refined fuels over the next decade.

  • The government is stepping up efforts to attract investment in developing its domestic gas processing capability. This poses an upside risk to our gas consumption forecasts, as it will allow for greater gas use largely in the power sector.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
11
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Papua New Guinea - Key Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
16
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
18
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
19
Refining
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
24
Gas Consumption
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
27
Trade - Oil
28
Crude Oil
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
30
Refined Fuels
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025)
35
Industry Risk Reward Index
36
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
37
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
37
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
40
Papua New Guinea - Risk/Reward Index
42
Upstream Index
42
Downstream Index
42
Market Overview
43
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview
43
Regulatory Structure
43
Licensing Regime
43
Table: O&G Licenses In PNG
44
Fiscal Regime
44
Table: Papua New Guinea Fiscal Regime
44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
45
Table: Oil Refineries
45
Service Stations
45
Oil Storage
45
LNG Terminals
45
Table: LNG Terminals in Papua New Guinea
45
Gas Pipelines
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Table: Key Players - PNG Oil And Gas Sector
48
Table: Upstream Players
48
Table: Downstream Players
48
Company Profile
49
InterOil
49
Oil Search
54
Other Summaries
61
Regional Overview
69
Industry Trend Analysis
69
Glossary
77
Table: Glossary Of Terms
77
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Source
81
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
81
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
83
Table: Weighting
84

The Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Papua New Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Papuan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Papua New Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Papuan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Papuan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Papua New Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.