BMI View: We continue to ma intain a generally positive outlook for th e Peruvian agricultural sector. We have modestly revised our forecasts for several segments of the Peruvian agricultura l sector in our Q4 2016 update though continue to maintain a positive outlook for the agricultural sector as a whole. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by infrastructure constraints and a lack of investment ; however, as Peru develops and gains recognition for organic and speciality crops, both these sectors stand to benefit. Peru is also set to benefit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains and weakness in the Argentine peso, as Argentina is a major source of imported grains. Recently the focus has shifted towards the coffee and cocoa crop, both strong export based revenue generating commodities for the Peruvian economy. Peru is one of the largest exporters of coffee, and organic coffee in particular. The recent rust disease significantly diminished the national coffee crop and has forced many smaller, independent farmers into bankruptcy. Looking forward, we believe that both coffee and cocoa will post strong gains. Furthermore the dairy and livestock sectors will also grow significantly based on rising incomes and private final consumption levels.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Poultry production to 2019/2020: 1.429mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.
Sugar consumption to 2020: 1.648mn tonnes. Low sugar prices and the rapid expansion of the local confectionery and soft drinks sector will see an expansion in demand for sugar in the coming years.
Corn consumption to 2020: 4.64mn tonnes. Domestic consumption of corn is set to increase as Peru imports more corn from Andean neighbours at a cheap price.
Cocoa production to 2020: 98,000 tonnes. Cocoa production will increase as export demand remains stable and investment is made into Peruvian cocoa infrastructure.
Depreciation of the Argentine peso over the coming years will benefit importers of Argentine agricultural products, particularly grain importers. Soybean hoarding by Argentine farmers will continue to increase, and we expect an increase in grains hoarding over the coming years. A depreciating peso will result in cheaper grain imports for key import markets such as China and Argentina's Latin American neighbours. Cheaper grains will also benefit the livestock industries in these countries, as cheaper feed costs could translate into higher profit margins and increased consumption.
We expect that the dairy production sector of Peru will be one of the strongest performers within the agricultural segment in the coming years. Having registered strong growth between 2007 and 2010, production declined considerably in 2012/13 as a result of record feed prices. Nevertheless, we believe that production began to grow a few years back, and it will continue to do so over the course of our forecast period.
The government remains committed towards further developing its coffee and cocoa infrastructure as both export commodities bring in significant revenues for Peru. The recent rust disease in the coffee crop of the previous year has taken a significant financial toll on the smaller, independent coffee farmers, particularly organic farmers. Nevertheless, we believe that, looking forward, the Peruvian agricultural landscape has a positive outlook.
The Peru Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Peru Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.