Peru Agribusiness Report

Published 09 June 2015

  • 111 pages
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$1,295.00
Peru Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for Peru's agricultural sector remains positive. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by a lack of infrastructure and investment, but there is scope for strong growth in both, particularly as Peru is becoming increasingly recognised for organic and speciality crops. The country is set to ben efit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains as well as the weakness in the Argentine peso, from where it imports a great deal of its grain. Grain production growth over the coming years will hampered by this dynamic.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 19.7% to 1.5mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 10 .7% to 1. 4 mn tonnes. Low sugar prices and the rapid expansion of the local confectionery and soft drinks sector will see demand for sugar expand in the coming years.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD12. 1 bn in 2015 (increase of 1.1% y-o-y on 2014; forecast to grow annually by 3.1% on average from 2014/15 to 2018/19).

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 3. 8 % , up from 2.4% in 2014.

  • 2015 consumer price index: 2.5 % year-on-year (y-o-y) average, down from 3.2% in 2014.

Industry Developments

Depreciation of the Argentine peso over the coming years will benefit importers of Argentine agricultural products, particularly grain importers. Soybean hoarding by Argentine farmers will continue to increase and we expect an increase in grains hoarding over coming years. A depreciating Argentine peso will result in cheaper grain imports for key import markets, such as China and Latin American neighbours. Cheaper grains will also benefit the livestock industries in these countries, as cheaper feed costs could translate into higher profit margins and increased consumption.

We believe that dairy production in Peru will be one...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Sugar Outlook
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
14
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
17
Dairy Outlook
18
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
19
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
19
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
19
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
20
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
21
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
21
Livestock Outlook
22
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
23
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
23
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
23
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
24
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
25
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
25
Grains Outlook
26
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
27
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
28
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
28
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
29
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
30
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
30
Coffee Outlook
31
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
32
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
33
Cocoa Outlook
35
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2019)
36
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
38
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Softs Strategy
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
48
Monthly Grains Strategy
49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
56
Upstream Analysis
57
Americas GM Outlook
57
Americas Machinery Outlook
64
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
66
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
71
Downstream Analysis
76
Food
76
Food Consumption
76
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
77
Confectionary
77
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
78
Meat And Fish
80
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Peru 2011-2018)
80
Fish
81
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
81
Pasta
82
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
83
Oils And Fats
83
Table: Oils And Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
84
Dairy
85
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
86
Drink
88
Hot Drinks
88
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
89
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Peru 2011-2018)
90
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
93
Mass Grocery Retail
95
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
96
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2012 and 2022 (%)
97
Regional Overview
98
Competitive Landscape
103
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
103
Demographic Forecast
104
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Peru 1990-2025)
105
Table: Key Population Ratios (Peru 1990-2025)
105
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Peru 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group (Peru 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group % (Peru 1990-2025)
107
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Sector-Specific Methodology
110

The Peru Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Peru Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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