Peru Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Peru Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We have revised our forecasts for several segments of the Peruvian agricultura l sector in our Q1 2016 update though continue to maintain a positive outlook for the agricultural sector as a whole. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by infrastructure constraints and a lack of investment ; however, as Peru develops and gains recognition for organic and speciality crops, both these sectors stand to benefit. Peru is also set to benefit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains and weakness in the Argentine peso, as Argentina is a major source of imported grains.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 19.7% to 1.5mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 3.9 % to 1. 3 mn tonnes. Low sugar prices and the rapid expansion of the local confectionery and soft drinks sector will see an expansion in demand for sugar in the coming years.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2019: 17.81% to 4.5mn tonnes. Domestic consumption of corn is set to increase as Peru imports more corn from Andean neighbours at a cheap price.

  • Cocoa production growth to 2019: 26.9% to 94,000 tonnes. Cocoa production will increase as export demand remains stable and investment is made into Peruvian cocoa infrastructure.

Industry Developments

Depreciation of the Argentine peso over the coming years will benefit importers of Argentine agricultural products, particularly grain importers. Soybean hoarding by Argentine farmers will continue to increase, and we expect an increase in grains hoarding over the coming years. A depreciating peso will result in cheaper grain imports for key import markets such as China and Argentina's Latin American neighbours. Cheaper grains will also benefit the livestock industries in these countries, as cheaper feed costs could translate into higher profit margins and increased consumption.

We anticipate that the dairy production sector of Peru will be one of the strongest performers within the agricultural segment in the coming years. Having registered strong growth between 2007 and 2010, production declined considerably in 2012/13 as a result of record feed prices. Nevertheless, we believe that production will begin to grow in 2013/14 and will accelerate in 2014/15 and beyond.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Sugar Outlook
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
14
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
17
Dairy Outlook
18
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
19
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
19
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
20
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
21
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
21
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
21
Livestock Outlook
23
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
24
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
24
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
24
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
26
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
26
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
26
Grains Outlook
28
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
29
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
30
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
30
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
31
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
32
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
32
Coffee Outlook
33
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
34
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
35
Cocoa Outlook
37
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2019)
38
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2009-2014)
40
Commodities Price Analysis
41
Monthly Grains Update
41
Monthly Softs Update
45
Upstream Analysis
51
Americas Machinery Outlook
51
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
54
Americas GM Outlook
58
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
64
Downstream Analysis
70
Food
70
Food Consumption
70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
71
Confectionary
71
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
72
Meat And Fish
73
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Peru 2011-2018)
73
Fish
74
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
74
Pasta
75
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
76
Oils And Fats
76
Table: Oils And Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
77
Dairy
78
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
79
Drink
81
Hot Drinks
81
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
82
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Peru 2011-2018)
83
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
87
Mass Grocery Retail
88
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
89
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2012 and 2022 (%)
90
Regional Overview
91
Competitive Landscape
97
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
97
Demographic Forecast
98
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Peru 1990-2025)
99
Table: Key Population Ratios (Peru 1990-2025)
99
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Peru 1990-2025)
100
Table: Population By Age Group (Peru 1990-2025)
100
Table: Population By Age Group % (Peru 1990-2025)
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Sector-Specific Methodology
104

The Peru Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Peru Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.