Peru Autos Report

Published 20 January 2015

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Peru Autos Report

2014 has proved to be a challenging year for new vehicle sales within Peru. Total new vehicle sales stood at 171,729 units for the first 11 months of the year, down by 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) according to figures from the Peruvian Association of Automotive Representatives (Araper). Breaking down the headline figure, passenger car sales were down by 1%, at 126,251 units.

Commercial vehicles (CVs) saw significant falls over 2014, against a backdrop of falling demand for Peru's key commodity exports and a slowing of economic growth. Light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales were down by 19% y-o-y over 11M14, at 28,656 units; heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) sales were down by 23% y-o-y, at 14,833 units, while bus sales were down by 21% y-o-y, at 1,989 units. This made for a total CV market of 45,478 units over 11M14.

Looking forward, BMI believes there is scope for a recovery in new vehicle sales in Peru across 2015, with passenger cars (+7.3%) set to outperform CVs (+2.2%). BMI's Country Risk team is currently forecasting an increase in GDP growth to 3.7%, from an estimated 3% for 2014.

Encouragingly for the passenger car segment, we believe that household spending will remain relatively resilient to external economic headwinds in 2015. After real private consumption growth slowed from 5.3% in 2013 to an estimated 4.5% in 2014, we now forecast a 4.6% expansion in 2015. The government is looking to cut both income and corporate tax rates in 2015, as part of efforts to revive the slowing economy, according to a statement by Finance Minister Alonso Segura, as reported by Radio Programas in November 2014. Under the plan, the corporate tax rate will be reduced from 30% to 28%, while the lowest income tax band for workers will be cut from 15% to 8%. The proposed cuts will take effect from January 1 2015, according to the minister. This slashing of tax rates should give Peruvian consumers more disposable income to spend on 'big-ticket' items such as a new car.

Rounding out the...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Peru Auto Industry SWOT
6
Peru Political SWOT Analysis
7
Peru Economic SWOT Analysis
8
Peru Business Environment SWOT Analysis
9
Global Overview
10
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
10
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
10
Regional Overview
15
Bullish On Mexico
15
Comparative Weakness In Productive Capacity Of Mexico's Regional Rivals
15
The Continued Recovery Of The US Vehicle Market
17
Positive Developments In The Domestic Supply Chain
18
Trade Agreements And Quotas Amongst Mexico's Large Neighbours
18
The Strength Of The Peso May Dampen Export Growth
19
Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas
24
Industry Forecast Scenario
25
Sales
25
Table: Peru Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
25
Trade
26
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
28
Table: Peru - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
30
Competitive Landscape
31
Market Overview
31
Table: Top Nine Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Nov 2012)
31
Passenger Cars
32
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Passenger Car Sales (Nov 2012)
32
Commercial Vehicles
32
Company Monitor
34
Company Profiles
36
Toyota Motor
36
Hyundai Motor
37
Peru Demographic Outlook
38
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
39
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
40
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
41
Table: Peru's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
41
BMI Methodology
42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
42
Sources
43

The Peru Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Peru Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Peru.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Peruvian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc