Peru Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Peru Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The Peruvian economy will strengthen in the coming years, driven by production growth in the extractive sector, robust private consumption and infrastructure investment.

  • The central government will post persistent, though narrowing, fiscal shortfalls due to lower government revenue growth.

  • Weakening trade dynamics will drive depreciation in the Peruvian sol in 2016, with a modest appreciatory trend set to begin in 2017.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • In response to a further weakening of Chinese metals demand, we reversed our forecast for export growth in 2016 and now expect a fourth consecutive year of export contraction, although at a much more modest scale.

Key Risks:

  • A sharper slowdown in the Chinese economy than we are currently expecting would pose significant downside risks to our growth, FX and balance of payments forecasts for Peru, given its exposure to China via export and investment channels.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Peru 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
f = BMI forecast; Source: BCRP, BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.4 3.2 3.6 4.2
Nominal GDP, USDbn 202.9 192.0 185.8 209.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.2 4.4 3.5 3.2
Exchange rate PEN/USD, eop 2.98 3.41 3.60 3.33
Budget balance, % of GDP -0.5 -2.7 -3.1 -2.5
Current account balance, % of GDP -4.0 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Mining Sector Will Power Robust Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Modest Deficits Will Persist In Response To Slower Growth
10
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Weakness Abroad Will Mask Underlying Strength
13
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy
17
Persistent Inflation Will Drive Additional Rate Hikes
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Currency Forecast
19
PEN: Bottom In H116, Modest Rebound Thereafter
19
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Peruvian Economy To 2025
21
Robust Growth Ahead As Economy Diversifies
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Fujimori Presidency Highly Likely
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Mining Disputes Main Threat To Stability
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Trade Procedures And Governance Analysis
31
TABLE: DOCUMENTS REQUIRED TO EXPORT AND IMPORT
31
TABLE: PROCEDURES, DURATION AND COSTS (USD)
31
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISKS
32
Vulnerability To Crime Analysis
33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
37
Global Macro Outlook
37
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
38
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
39
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41

Assess your risk exposure in Peru with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Peru with confidence.

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