The Peruvian economy will strengthen in the coming years, driven by production growth in the extractive sector, robust private consumption and infrastructure investment.
The central government will post persistent, though narrowing, fiscal shortfalls due to lower government revenue growth.
Weakening trade dynamics will drive depreciation in the Peruvian sol in 2016, with a modest appreciatory trend set to begin in 2017.
Major Forecast Changes:
In response to a further weakening of Chinese metals demand, we reversed our forecast for export growth in 2016 and now expect a fourth consecutive year of export contraction, although at a much more modest scale.
A sharper slowdown in the Chinese economy than we are currently expecting would pose significant downside risks to our growth, FX and balance of payments forecasts for Peru, given its exposure to China via export and investment channels.
|f = BMI forecast; Source: BCRP, BMI|
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||2.4||3.2||3.6||4.2|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||202.9||192.0||185.8||209.2|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||3.2||4.4||3.5||3.2|
|Exchange rate PEN/USD, eop||2.98||3.41||3.60||3.33|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-0.5||-2.7||-3.1||-2.5|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||-4.0||-4.7||-3.9||-3.5|
Assess your risk exposure in Peru with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Peru with confidence.
Your subscription service includes:
- Delivery of the report in print and PDF
- Online access for 12 months
- The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
- The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
- The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
- Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report