Peru Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Peru Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The Peruvian economy will recover in the coming years, driven by robust private consumption growth and a pickup in infrastructure investment.

  • After the budget balance flipped from a surplus to a deficit for the first time since 2009 in 2014, we expect persistent shortfalls in the coming years due to lower government revenue growth.

  • Weakening trade dynamics will drive depreciation in the Peruvian sol through 2016, with a modest appreciatory trend set to begin in 2017.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • Signs of further softening of Chinese metals demand saw us alter our exchange rate outlook for 2016, and we now anticipate a further weakening of the sol next year. We forecast the unit to average PEN3.210/USD in 2015 and PEN3.540/USD in 2016.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Peru 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
f = BMI forecast; Source: BCRP, BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 5.8 2.4 2.8 3.8
Nominal GDP, USDbn 202.4 202.9 190.9 203.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.2
Exchange rate PEN/USD, eop 2.80 2.98 3.32 3.30
Budget balance, % of GDP 0.5 -0.5 -3.2 -3.5
Current account balance, % of GDP -4.2 -4.0 -4.7 -3.8

Key Risks To Outlook:

A sharper slowdown in the Chinese economy than we are currently expecting, particularly as the recent stock market correction and yuan devaluation have exposed the underlying fragilities of the economy, would pose significant downside risks to our growth, FX and balance of payments forecasts for Peru.

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Slowing Growth Will Bolster Social Unrest
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Mining Disputes Main Threat To Stability
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Construction Delays Deteriorating Economic Outlook
14
table: Private Consumption Forecasts
14
table: Government Consumption Forecasts
14
table: Fixed Investment Forecasts
15
table: Net Exports Forecast
15
Monetary Policy
16
Rates On Hold Through End-2015, Hikes In 2016
16
table: Macroeconomic Indicators
16
Fiscal Policy
17
Fiscal Shortfalls Will Continue In 2016
17
table: Fiscal Policy
17
Balance Of Payments
19
Copper Headwinds Will Cause Trade Decline
19
table: Current Account
19
FX Forecast
20
PEN: Depreciation Not Over As External Headwinds Persist
20
table: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
20
table: Exchange Rate
21
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Peruvian Economy To 2024
23
Cooling Growth Ahead
23
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
table: Operational Risk
26
table: Latin America - Market Size & Utilities Risk
28
International Security Risk
31
table: Latin America - Interstate Security Risks
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
35
table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data & Forecasts
36
table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data & Forecasts
37
Telecommunications
38
table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
40
Other Key Sectors
43
table: Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
43
table: Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
43
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
44
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
44
table: Freight Key Indicators
44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Macro Outlook
45
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
45
Table: Global Assumptions
45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
46
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
46
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
47

Assess your risk exposure in Peru with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Peru with confidence.

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