The Peruvian economy will recover in the coming years, driven by robust private consumption growth and a pickup in investment into infrastructure.
After the budget balance flipped from a surplus to a deficit for the first time since 2009 in 2014, we expect persistent shortfalls in the coming years due to lower government revenue growth.
Weakening trade dynamics will drive depreciation in the Peruvian sol through 2016, with a modest appreciatory trend set to begin in 2017.
Major Forecast Changes:
Signs of further softening of Chinese metals demand saw us alter our exchange rate outlook for 2016, and we now anticipate a further weakening of the sol next year. We forecast the unit to average PEN3.185/USD in 2015 and PEN3.2000/USD in 2016.
Delays in major construction projects have seen high frequency economic data disappoint, prompting us to downgrade our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to 3.2%, from 3.8% previously.
Macroeconomic Forecasts (Peru 2013-2016)
| || 2013 || 2014 || 2015f || 2016f |
| f=BMI forecast; Source: National Sources/BMI |
| Nominal GDP, USDbn || 202.4 || 202.9 || 193.3 || 206.1 |
| Real GDP growth, % y-o-y || 5.8 || 2.4 || 3.2 || 3.8 |
| Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop || 2.9 || 3.2 || 3.4 || 3.2 |
| Exchange rate PEN/USD, eop || 2.80 || 2.98 || 3.32 || 3.30 |
| Budget balance, % of GDP || 0.5 || -0.5 || -1.2 || -1.1 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP || -4.2 || -4.0 || -3.7 || -2.9 |
Key Risks To Outlook:
A sharper slowdown in the Chinese economy than we are currently expecting, particularly as the recent stock market correction and yuan devaluation have exposed the underlying fragilities of the economy, would pose significant downside risks to our growth, FX and balance of payments forecasts for Peru.
The Peru Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Peru. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Peru's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.
- Forecast the pace and stability of Peru's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Peru's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Peru, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Peru Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the Peru' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Peru through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Peru Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Peru and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Peru, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Peru over the next 5-years?
BMI's Peru country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Peru Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Peru.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Peru's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Peru’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.
- Benchmark Peru's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Peru?
The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Peru against its neighbours.
Operational Risk Contents
The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:
- Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
- Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
- Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
- Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).
The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:
- Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
- Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
- Evaluate Peru’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.
Key Sector Outlook*
Which industry sectors in Peru will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?
BMI identifies investment opportunities in Peru's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.
Key Areas Covered:
- Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
- 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
- Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.
- Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
- Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.
*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.