Peru Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Peru Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The Peruvian economy will strengthen in the coming years, driven by production growth in the extractive sector, robust private consumption and infrastructure investment.

  • An incoming administration will boost infrastructure spending, bolstering the country's long-term growth.

  • The central government will post persistent, though narrowing, fiscal shortfalls due to lower government revenue growth.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • With exports outperforming our expectations and investor sentiment turning increasingly positive, we expect the Peruvian sol to trade higher in the coming quarters, although it will average lower on the year.

Key Risks:

  • A sharper slowdown in the Chinese economy than we are currently expecting would pose significant downside risks to our growth, FX and balance of payments forecasts for Peru, given its exposure to China via export and investment channels.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Peru 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
f = BMI forecast; Source: BCRP, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 202.9 192.2 216.8 243.9
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.4 3.3 3.6 4.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.2 4.4 3.2 2.8
Exchange rate PEN/USD, eop 2.98 3.41 3.25 3.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -0.3 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8
Current account balance, % of GDP -4.0 -4.4 -3.4 -2.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Infrastructure Investment Will Drive Growth In 2017
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Sovereign Credentials Intact Despite Deficits
10
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Narrowing Deficits Supported By Capital Inflows
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy
16
Hiking Cycle Nearing A Temporary Pause
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Currency Forecast
18
PEN: Bottom Reached, But Rebound Will Be Limited
18
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Peruvian Economy To 2025
21
Robust Growth Ahead As Economy Diversifies
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Investment, Crime And Governance Key For Incoming Administration
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Mining Disputes Main Threat To Stability
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Economic Openness
31
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT PRODUCTS & IMPORT PARTNERS, 2009-2013, USDMN
31
Availability Of Labour
35
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
36
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCES OF IMMIGRANTS IN PERU
37
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, -000
38
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Summer Of Risk
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
45

Assess your risk exposure in Peru with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Peru with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
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  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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