Peru Food & Drink Report

Published 15 December 2014

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Peru Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We maintain a positive longer-term view of Peru's food and drink sector, which will see strong expansion rates and present a number of interesting investment opportunities over the forecast period. Growth will be driven by a strong consumer outlook, supported by improving labour market situation and favourable crediting conditions. More generally, Peru's food and drink sector will continue to benefit from country's largely youthful population and ongoing formalisation of the mass grocery retail (MGR) segment .

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • Food consumption growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014: +9.5%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013-2018: +9.4%;

  • Per capita food consumption growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +8.1%; CAGR 2013-2018: +8.1%;

  • Soft drinks value sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +6.7%; CAGR 2013-2018: +7.0%;

  • Alcoholic drinks value sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +5.9%; CAGR 2013-2018: +6.2%;

  • Total mass grocery retail (MGR) value sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +9.6%; CAGR 2013-2018: +9.5%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Coc oa Production To Grow 5% In 2014: Cocoa production in Peru is expected to increase 5% in 2014 on the back of expansion of area planted, according to the US Department of Agriculture. This could place the country among the top 10 exporters in the coming years. Peru is predicted to produce 70,000 metric tonnes of cocoa in 2014, with high prices on the international market making it a lucrative crop for farmers. The domestic government is also pushing to establish cocoa as an alternative crop to coca. Exports of cocoa bean for 2014 are also expected to increase by 18% to reach 37,000 metric tonnes, with the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium among the biggest importers.

Peruvian Produce Provides Potential For Growth: Peruvian fresh produce exports are estimated to record huge growth in volumes and sales in the coming years, as demand increases for the country's vast range of fruit and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Food
10
Drink
12
Mass Grocery Retail
14
Industry Forecast
16
Consumer Outlook
16
Food
18
Food Consumption
18
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
19
Confectionary
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
20
Meat And Fish
21
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Peru 2011-2018)
21
Fish
22
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
22
Pasta
23
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
24
Oils And Fats
24
Table: Oils And Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
25
Dairy
26
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
27
Drink
29
Hot Drinks
29
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
30
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Peru 2011-2018)
31
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
34
Mass Grocery Retail
36
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
37
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2012 and 2022 (%)
38
Trade
38
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
39
Macroeconomic Forecasts
40
Economic Analysis
40
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Peru 2011-2018)
45
Industry Risk Reward Index
46
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
46
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q115
48
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Index Q115 (scores out of 10)
50
Peru Risk/Reward Index
51
Market Overview
52
Food
52
Drink
54
Retail
55
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Peru 2005-2008)
57
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Peru 2005-2014)
57
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Peru 2005-2014)
57
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2012
58
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Food
59
Drink
62
Retail
64
Competitive Landscape
67
Table: Key Players In Peru's Food And Drink Sector
67
Table: Key Players In Peru's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
68
Company Profile
69
Uni-n de Cervercer-as Peruanas Backus y Johnston
69
Corporaci-n Jose R Lindley
72
Aje Group
74
Wong (Cencosud)
77
Saga Falabella
79
Grupo Gloria
81
Good Foods
83
Global Industry Overview
85
Table: Dollar General And Family Dollar Historic Quarterly Same-Store Sales Growth (% Change Y-O-Y)
89
Table: Selected US And Global Spirits Companies - Historical Financial Indicators
92
Table: Select US Beverage Companies - Historic Eva Spread
94
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
95
Demographic Forecast
97
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Peru 1990-2025)
98
Table: Key Population Ratios (Peru 1990-2025)
98
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Peru 1990-2025)
99
Table: Population By Age Group (Peru 1990-2025)
99
Table: Population By Age Group % (Peru 1990-2025)
100
Glossary
102
Food & Drink
102
Mass Grocery Retail
102
Methodology
104
Industry Forecast Methodology
104
Sector-Specific Methodology
105
Sources
105
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
106
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
107
Table: Weighting
108

The Peru Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Peru Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Peru.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Peru through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc