BMI View: We expect a mixed year for Peru's freight sector with road freight growing with a relatively weak 1.2%, rail contracting by 2.7% and only air freight growing by a good 3.3%. Low exports of copper and generally subdued metals prices will hit rail freight the most, however, road freight growth will be modest in light of weak trade activity and meagre construction sector growth. Air freight will benefit the most from rising private consumption, which is reflected in strong demand for consumer electronics, which are often transported via air.
Economic growth will improve modestly in 2015, driven by stronger household spending and a slight recovery in the construction sector, which saw a strong contraction in 2014 and H115. Still construction sector growth will be lower than previously expected and weak mining sector exports will continue to weigh on growth. BMI thus lowered its real economic growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.2% in 2015.
Trade activity will be relatively poor in 2015, as subdued metals prices will lead to a significant decline in copper exports and the depreciation of the sol will undermine import growth. Household purchasing power will benefit from lower fuel prices and agricultural exports will remain strong. For 2015, we forecast a current account deficit of 3.7% of GDP. Recent progress on Peru's trade agreement agenda could provide a stimulus to trade growth over the long term.
The mixed economic outlook will be reflected in road freight growth, which we forecast to figure at a relatively weak 1.2%. Weak trade activity and tepid construction sector growth will mitigate the positive stimulus of rising private consumption. Over the long term, road freight will benefit from strong investments flowing into road improvements. We forecast rail freight to contract by 2.7% in 2015, as waning demand for copper and subdued metal prices will weigh on growth. We believe these developments will continue to depress rail freight in the next few...
The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.