BMI View: We maintain our broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. External headwinds stemming from lower metals prices associated with weak Chinese demand have intensified in Peru in recent quarters, and we expect this to continue to weigh on economic growth in the coming years. A dimming global outlook towards the industrial and precious will depress fixed investment in Peru. Slowing economic growth will encourage loose monetary policies by the Banco Central del Reserva del Peru (BCRP), and combined with expansionary fiscal policies ahead of the 2016 general election, it will support relatively strong private consumption growth in 2015. However, resilience in household spending will not be enough to offset the impact of a weaker mining sector on the economy, prompting us to downgrade our real GDP forecast to 3.0% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015, from 3.8% and 4.0% previously.
Further upside risk comes from the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network, which BMI believes will help boost the country's freight transport volumes, through providing easier routes to market. However, we caution that the plan may be overly ambitious and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date. According to Peru's transport and communications minister, Carlos Paredes Rodrigues, USD22bn is set to be invested in the Latin American country's transport and communications sectors by 2016.
We anticipate that Peru will continue to be hit hard through the trade and investment channels due to weaker Chinese demand, lower average metals prices, and more moderate capital expenditure plans by major mining firms.
Headline Industry Data
We expect growth of 7% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 30.855mn tonnes in 2015.
We predict air freight volume to increase 4.3%, to 341,000 tonnes in 2015.
We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to contract by 3.9%, to 886mn tonnes-km in 2015.
The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.