BMI View: Peru's freight sector will continue to have mixed growth rates in 2016, with a contraction in rail freight volumes of 2.48%, slowing growth in road freight at 1.05%, and the strongest growth in air freight at 2.75%. Rail freight has been affected by low exports of copper and generally subdued metals prices, while road freight growth will improve on 2015 estimates due to moderate growth in trade activity and construction sector growth. Rising private consumption leading to stronger demand for consumer electronics will benefit the air freight sector the most, hence the strongest growth forecast for this transport mode.
The economy in Peru is steadily improving and we forecast GDP growth at 3.8% for 2016, up from 2.2% estimated for 2015. August and September 2015 have however seen below expectations growth rates in GDP. The moderate growth is largely due to a slowdown in Peru's mining fuelled economy as mineral prices have been weaker. Rising copper production from new mines has on the other hand helped underpin official forecasts for a recovery, and economic growth has increased mainly because of mining. 2015 has seen a recovery in fishing, manufacturing and mining sectors, which will help the economy in the coming year and over the medium term. Unemployment has also been at its lowest of the year in the last two months. Going forward, Chinese investments in Peru will benefit the economy as the country seeks to accelerate their developments particularly through building major infrastructure projects, positively impacting the freight sector.
Trade growth will move into positive territory in 2016 as domestic demand is driving import growth. The depreciation of the sol will however keep import growth at moderate levels, while household spending power will benefit from lower fuel prices. As for exports, agricultural exports will remain strong over our forecast period, while subdued metals prices will continue to lead to significant decrease in copper exports. Recent progress in Peru's trade agreements will drive growth over the coming years and also beyond our forecast period.
With over 95% of the market share, road freight will continue to dominate the freight mx in 2016, however, due to modest economic growth, road freight growth will be modest over our forecast period, despite investment into road upgrading benefiting supply chains. Air freight will see the greatest growth over 2016 and over the medium term, as the sector will benefit from rising demand for consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals in Peru. Demand for goods having to de transported by air will remain strong over the medium term as growing household purchasing power will continue to drive imports of medicine and stimulate growth in the domestic pharmaceuticals market. Rail freight is forecast to continue its contraction in 2016 and over the medium term until 2020 as waning demand for copper will continue to weigh on growth.
The Peruvian government is taking steps to implement its trade agreements agenda. A delegation is scheduled to visit India to undertake a joint feasibility study required to sign a free trade agreement (FTA), while negotiations for an agreement with Turkey are expected to be concluded soon. The government is also in talks with the Eurasian Economic Commission to sign a memorandum of understanding on trade and has made progress in a joint FTA study with Indonesia (Andina).
The Peruvian government is set to spend USD200mn on free trade zone (FTZ) infrastructure along its Pacific coast, according to Minister for Foreign Trade and Tourism Magali Silva. The minister stated that the FTZs in the ports of Paita, Ilo and Matarani Tacna's ZofraTacna zone needed tax-benefit regimes to be extended from the current deadline of 2022 to 2041 and also required greater connectivity with roads, ports and airports to compete with other countries.
Project delays remain a problem in Peru. According to the National Confederation of Private Business Institutions, CONFIEP, only 10% of the 2,083 infrastructure projects that the government is planning to implement between 2015 and 2021 have been awarded. As stated by CONFIEP, this is due to delays in securing construction and environmental permits, both at the regional and municipal level.
Key BMI Forecasts
Rail freight is forecast to drop by 2.7% to 7.3mn tonnes over 2015, and a further 2.48% in 2016 to reach tonnes 7.1mn tonnes.
Road freight is forecast to drop by 0.6% to reach 149mn tonnes over 2015, and is forecast to grow by 1.1% in 2016 to reach tonnes 151mn tonnes.
Air freight is exoected to drop by 1.3% to 333,000 tonnes over 2015 and forecast to grow by 2.8% in 2016 to reach 343,000 tonnes.
The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.