BMI View: The increased wealth in Peru from the continued growth of the mining sector and the wider economy will see an attendant growth in private consumption in the country as the consumer power of the growing middle class increases. Despite our forecast for a notable slowdown in headline growth, we expect private consumption will remain a relativ e bright spot for the economy. T his will drive demand for all freight modes, however air freight will, in our view, see the greatest growth as the economy strengthens and purchasing power rises, while road will continue to dominate the mix as the delivery of imported consumer goods and internet purchases soars.
Economic growth in Peru will improve modestly in 2015, driven by a recovery in the construction sector following a sharp deceleration in 2014. However, ongoing weakness in the mining sector will ensure that headline economic growth continues to trend lower in the coming years as compared with the five-year average of 5.8%.
Household spending will accelerate modestly in 2015, as stronger construction activity, a key employment generator, contributes to lower unemployment. Moreover, cheap fuel imports will also be a tailwind for the Peruvian consumer this year. We therefore expect road freight is still comfortably the largest freight mode in Peru and, at 151.4mn tonnes over 2015, will see annual growth of almost 2%.
Peru's rail freight sector is largely reliant on the mining sector, in particular copper concentrates. However, there are other goods, earmarked for domestic use rather than exports, which are also transported by rail, such as coal and various agricultural products. However, owing to declining demand for copper, we believe rail freight will see a contraction over 2015 of -4.7%, to 7.2mn tonnes.
One of the main growth drivers for the airfreight sector, which will see the greatest uptick in tonnage over 2015 out of all the freight modes is the strong demand for consumer electronics in Peru. Our...
The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.