Peru Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Peru Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Peru's mining industry will experience solid growth in both value and production, supported by competitive operating costs, a stable business environment and a significant project pipeline over our forecast period to 2020 .

Peru Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 21.23 19.78 19.68 20.50 21.79 22.90 24.13
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -9.21 -6.80 -0.55 4.21 6.26 5.13 5.35

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

  • Peru's extractive industry will experience significant growth over our forecast period to 2020. We expect the sector's value to climb from USD19.7bn in 2016 to USD24.1bn by 2020, averaging 4.1% annual growth. In particular, we expect copper and gold to outperform in terms of production growth due to strong project pipelines and continued investment. Silver and lead will also benefit from a number of key projects, while tin and zinc output posts slower growth. The country will remain a top global producer of each of these metals.

  • Copper projects account for the largest proportion of new mine projects and expansions. The Peruvian government estimates that the country's 2016 mining investments will total USD6.5bn. The sector is dominated by global copper mining majors including Southern Copper (a division of Grupo Mexico), Freeport McMoRan and Glencore Xstrata, which are boosting output by both expanding existing operations and undertaking new investment projects. Increasing Chinese investment and mining activity will stem from MMG and Chinalco.

  • Ongoing metal price weakness, anti-mining protests, and illegal mining will remain key challenges to Peru's mining industry. While these factors may result in project delays, Peru's low operating costs, supportive political environment and significant project pipeline will offset any production declines.

  • Peru's mining sector will be supported by the country's vast mineral reserves, open investment framework, and low operating costs. Peru will remain competitive relative to other Americas mining jurisdictions and we expect mining firms will continue to invest in the country. While the country's overall tax levels are relatively higher than its regional peers, miners in Chile still face elevated labour, electricity and water costs compared to Peru.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Peru Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Copper: Strong Growth To Provide Economic Tailwinds
9
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020)
9
Structural Trends
9
Table: Peru - Major Copper Projects
13
Gold: Steady Climb Ahead
14
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020)
14
Structural Trends
14
Hochschild and Buenaventura To Dominate Sector
15
Protests To Continue Against The Sector
17
Lead: Modest Gains After Strong 2015
18
Table: Lead Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020)
18
Structural Trends
18
Silver: Production To Remain Solid
20
Table: Silver Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020)
20
Structural Trends
20
Risks Slated To Downside
21
Table: Peru - Key Silver Projects
22
Tin: Minsur Cost Cutting To Limit Growth
23
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020)
23
Minsur To Scale Back Investment
24
Zinc: Declining Ore Grades To Weigh On Growth
26
Latest Developments
26
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Peru 2014-2020)
26
Table: Peru - Key Zinc Projects
27
Structural Trends
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Peru Risk/Reward Index
30
Rewards
30
Industry Rewards
30
Country Rewards
30
Risks
30
Industry Risks
30
Country Risks
31
Americas - Risk/Reward Divergence To Emerge
31
Key Takeaways
31
Latest Revisions
32
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
33
Regulatory Development
34
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
34
Commodities Forecast
38
Commodities Outlook
38
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
38
Competitive Landscape
39
Table: Peru - Largest Listed Mining Firms Financial Data
40
Company Profile
41
Buenaventura
41
Latest Results
43
Table: Buenaventura - Key Financial Data
44
Global Company Strategy - Grupo M-xico - Q2 2016
45
Table: Grupo M-xico - Key Financial Data
48
First Quantum - Q2 2016
50
Latest Results
53
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data
54
Regional Overview
56
Methodology
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Peru Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Peru Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Peru.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Peru's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.