Peru Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Peru Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Production of crude and natural gas will grow over the next decade due to strong project pipeline and continued government support. However, the country will produce below its potential due to a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market , di minishing the attractiveness of the country's oil and ga s sector amid the industry-wide downturn .

Headline Forecasts (Peru 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Minem, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 175.6 151.9 135.8 132.2 132.1 133.5 136.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 194.0 204.5 204.5 204.5 204.5 214.7 223.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 231.4 254.0 270.4 297.3 339.7 408.2 519.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 12.9 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 8.1 8.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Key developments in the Peruvian oil and gas sector:

  • Peru will remain among the region's brightest economic growth stories through 2017, as production growth in the mining sector and strengthening public investment lead accelerating economic activity. In recent quarters, growth has accelerated largely due to the beginning of production at Las Bambas, a massive copper mine set to rank among the world's three largest when it reaches full production capacity later this year.

  • The election of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in June formally began an administration that will solidify Peru's business-friendly reputation. Kuczynski has appointed a cabinet of technocrats whose commitment to orthodox macroeconomic policy will support policy continuity and underpin an agenda that aims to boost investment into the mining-driven economy.

  • However, investment into the hydrocarbons sector will largely go to natural gas given Peru's position in the LNG export market and rising domestic demand. Crude production will suffer continued declines as investment into the sector wanes on the back of sustained commodity price weakness.

  • We expect the completion of the Southern Gas Pipeline (GSP) will be delayed to 2019 following the exit of its constructor, Odebrecht, the owner of a 55% stake in the project. The GSP - which is currently 34% completed - is expected to supply feedstock to two thermal power plants currently under construction in Ilo and Mollendo.

  • On May 6, Repsol and Petroper u agreed to increase fuel prices. Increases varied depending on the octane of the fuel, with prices at the pump rising from 2.6 to 4.7% in total.

  • Modernisation of Petroperu's 62,000b/d Talara refinery is progressing slightly ahead of schedule, supporting our current downstream capacity forecast. As of May 4, the project was 37% completed. In the same month, the company issued a tender for underwater lines and multibuoys. Eight groups submitted consultations as of May 31, including Cadape, Cobra Instalaciones y Servicios, Cosapi, JJC-Schrader Camargo, M y C Parinas, Mota-Engil.

  • The full commissioning of the second 4.5mntp Train of the Sabine Pass LNG export facility in the US in October will threaten Peru's LNG market share. Though this will compete with Peruvian exports, we believe the country will remain a dominant player in the region due to a lower variable cost of production compared to US supplies.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Peru 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Peru - Key Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2014-2019)
19
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2020-2025)
20
Upstream Production - Gas
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2014-2019)
25
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2020-2025)
25
Refining
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2020-2025)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2020-2025)
31
Gas Consumption
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Oil
37
Crude Oil
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
39
Refined Fuels
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
42
Latest Updates
42
Structural Trends
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
45
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
46
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
47
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
48
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
50
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
52
Peru - Risk/Reward Index
53
Upstream Index - Rewards
53
Upstream Index - Risks
53
Downstream Index - Rewards
54
Downstream Index - Risks
54
Market Overview
55
Peru Energy Market Overview
55
Overview/State Role
55
Licensing And Regulation
55
Table: Latin American Regulatory Regimes
56
Government Policy
58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
61
Oil Refineries
61
Table: Refineries in Peru
61
Pipelines
62
LNG Terminals
65
Competitive Landscape
67
Competitive Landscape Summary
67
Table: Key Players In Peru's Oil & Gas Sector
68
Company Profile
69
Petroper-
69
Latest Updates
69
Table: Table - Major Assets in Peru
70
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
70
Regional Overview
72
Latin America Overview
72
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
81
Glossary
83
Table: Glossary Of Terms
83
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Source
87
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
87
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
89
Table: Weighting
90

The Peru Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Peru including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Peru Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Peru to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.