Peru Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Peru Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: While the Peruvian government is trying to garner investor interest in the country's upstream potential, we believe that lack of below-ground prospectivity, a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market will be the key factors diminishing the attractiveness of the country's oil and gas industry over the coming years.

Headline Forecasts (Peru 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 170.5 175.0 177.3 179.0 182.6 187.0 191.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 200.0 202.0 203.0 203.0 203.0 213.1 221.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 237.8 250.9 268.9 296.3 342.1 423.7 573.4
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main developments in the Peruvian oil and gas sector:

  • In April 2015, PetroPeru launched the bidding process for Peru's biggest oil block AB-1. Despite the initial interest expressed from Pluspetrol , Perenco Ltd and Pacific Rubiales Energy, none of the companies bid in the auction, which ended in early August 2015. According to media reports, PeruPetro is now considering negotiating temporary (2 years) or definitive contracts (30 years) directly with potential operators. As a potential alternative, Peru's energy minister Rosa Maria Ortiz raised a possibility that state-owned PetroPeru could operate the block.

  • In June 2015, PeruPetro advanced a bidding round for seven blocks in Peru's vast Amazon region. State-owned Perupetro plans to open bidding on a minimum of six offshore exploration and exploitation blocks, followed by a second tender for eight onshore blocks in the Peruvian forest, both of which are planned for H215. The company is also planning on extending deadlines of exploration that are nearing their end in order to avoid a suspension of investments. These would be granted based on requests for a period of up to an additional three years, thus allowing for a full decade to explore.

  • In June 2015, Peru's President Ollanta Humala and his Bolivian counterpart Evo Morales agreed to study a project that will allow landlocked Bolivia to export its natural gas to Asia from Peru's Pacific coas. Humala is willing to let Bolivia link to a USD5bn Gasoducto Sur Peruano pipeline, which is now being built by Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht in southern Peru. The pipeline is scheduled to be completed in 2017.

  • In November, the Peruvian government reduced royalty rates on oil and gas production in an effort to incentivise exploration and field development, particularly offshore. Rates were reduced from 20% to 5%, with the drop in government take expected to be made up by an increase in upstream investment.

  • Peru's state-run energy firm Petroperu plans to issue USD2.7bn in global bonds by the end of November 2015, according to company's President German Velasquez. The bonds, likely with a 30-year maturity, will be used to finance an expansion of the company's main refinery. French bank Societe Generale and Peruvian bank Cofide are the bookrunners on the planned transactions, which will allow the company to speed up work on its Talara refinery that is now 13% complete.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Peru 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Peru 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Peru 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Peru - Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2013-2018)
19
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2019-2024)
19
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Peru 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Peru 2019-2024)
25
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2019-2024)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2019-2024)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Peru 2013-2018)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Peru 2019-2024)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
36
Upstream RRI: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
38
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
39
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
41
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
43
Peru - Risk/Reward Index
44
Upstream Index - Rewards
44
Upstream Index - Risks
44
Downstream Index - Overview
45
Market Overview
46
Peru Energy Market Overview
46
Overview/State Role
46
Licensing And Regulation
46
Table: Latin American Regulatory Regimes
47
Government Policy
48
Licensing Rounds
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries in Peru
52
Pipelines
52
LNG Terminals
56
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape Summary
58
Table: Key Players In Peru's Oil & Gas Sector
59
Company Profile
60
Petroper-
60
Repsol
64
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
78
Latin America Overview
78
Global Industry Overview
87
Global Energy Market Overview
87
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
87
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
91
Appendix
93
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
93
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
93
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
94
Latin America - Regional Appendix
95
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
101
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
101
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
102
Peru - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
103
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Peru 2013-2018)
103
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Peru 2019-2024)
103
Peru - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Peru 2013-2018)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Peru 2019-2024)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Peru 2013-2018)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Peru 2019-2024)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Peru 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Peru 2019-2024)
109
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Peru 2013-2018)
110
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Peru 2019-2024)
111
Glossary
112
Table: Glossary Of Terms
112
Methodology
114
Industry Forecast Methodology
114
Source
116
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
116
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
118
Table: Weighting
119

The Peru Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Peru including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Peru Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Peru to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.