Peru Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Peru Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Production of crude and natural gas will grow over the next decade owning to strong project pipeline and continued government support. However, the country will produce below its potential owning to a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market , di minishing the attractiveness of the country's oil and ga s sector amid the industry-wide downturn .

Headline Forecasts (Peru 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 175.0 172.7 169.2 170.9 174.9 179.0 182.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 199.0 199.0 199.0 199.0 199.0 208.9 217.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 248.6 266.4 293.7 340.5 423.1 575.6 865.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.5
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main developments in the Peruvian oil and gas sector:

  • In June 2015, Peru's President Ollanta Humala and his Bolivian counterpart Evo Morales agreed to study a project that will allow landlocked Bolivia to export its natural gas to Asia from Peru's Pacific coast. Humala is willing to let Bolivia link to the USD5bn Gasoducto Sur Peruano pipeline, which is now being built by Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht in southern Peru. The pipeline is scheduled to be completed in 2017 after having received a USD4.125bn loan in October 2015.

  • In November, the Peruvian government reduced royalty rates on oil and gas production in an effort to incentivise exploration and field development, particularly offshore. Rates were reduced from 20% to 5%, with the drop in government take expected to be made up by an increase in upstream investment.

  • In January and again in February of 2016, two pipeline leaks interrupted key operations. The first was a leak in the Camiesa liquids pipeline which suspended LNG exports for nearly a month starting on January 19, followed by a leak in a crude pipeline while spilled over 3,000bbl of oil in the Amazonian region.

  • In February 2016, Peru's Energy and Mines Ministry approved Repsol ' s environmental impact assessment of the Sagari natural gas project located in the jungles of Cuzco. The project requires an investment of USD958mn and will involve the drilling of two development wells as well as associated gas production infrastructure.

  • The start up of LNG exports from the US in March will threaten the market share of Peruvian supplies. We expect Cheniere's 4.5mntpa Sabine Pass train 1 will come online in the coming weeks, with a successive tranche of export volumes coming on stream thereafter. Though this will compete with Peru's exports, we believe the country will remain a dominant player in the region due to a lower variable cost of production compared to US supplies.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Peru 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Peru - Key Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2014-2019)
19
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2020-2025)
19
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2014-2019)
22
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2020-2025)
22
Refining
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2014-2019)
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2020-2025)
24
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2020-2025)
26
Gas Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2020-2025)
29
Trade - Oil
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2014-2020)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
36
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
37
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
38
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
39
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
41
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Peru - Risk/Reward Index
44
Upstream Index - Rewards
44
Upstream Index - Risks
44
Downstream Index - Rewards
45
Downstream Index - Risks
45
Market Overview
46
Peru Energy Market Overview
46
Overview/State Role
46
Licensing And Regulation
46
Table: Latin American Regulatory Regimes
47
Government Policy
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Refineries in Peru
52
Pipelines
53
LNG Terminals
56
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape Summary
58
Table: Key Players In Peru's Oil & Gas Sector
59
Company Profile
60
Petroper-
60
Repsol
65
Other Summaries
69
Regional Overview
78
Latin America Overview
78
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024
87
Glossary
89
Table: Glossary Of Terms
89
Methodology
91
Industry Forecast Methodology
91
Source
93
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
93
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
95
Table: Weighting
96

The Peru Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Peru including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Peru Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Peru to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.