BMI View: Production of crude and natural gas will grow over the next decade owning to strong project pipeline and continued government support. However, the country will produce below its potential owning to a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market , di minishing the attractiveness of the country's oil and ga s sector amid the industry-wide downturn .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||175.0||172.7||169.2||170.9||174.9||179.0||182.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||199.0||199.0||199.0||199.0||199.0||208.9||217.3|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||248.6||266.4||293.7||340.5||423.1||575.6||865.8|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||12.6||13.1||13.6||14.2||14.7||15.3||15.8|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||6.2||6.6||6.8||7.1||7.6||8.1||8.5|
The main developments in the Peruvian oil and gas sector:
In June 2015, Peru's President Ollanta Humala and his Bolivian counterpart Evo Morales agreed to study a project that will allow landlocked Bolivia to export its natural gas to Asia from Peru's Pacific coast. Humala is willing to let Bolivia link to the USD5bn Gasoducto Sur Peruano pipeline, which is now being built by Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht in southern Peru. The pipeline is scheduled to be completed in 2017 after having received a USD4.125bn loan in October 2015.
In November, the Peruvian government reduced royalty rates on oil and gas production in an effort to incentivise exploration and field development, particularly offshore. Rates were reduced from 20% to 5%, with the drop in government take expected to be made up by an increase in upstream investment.
In January and again in February of 2016, two pipeline leaks interrupted key operations. The first was a leak in the Camiesa liquids pipeline which suspended LNG exports for nearly a month starting on January 19, followed by a leak in a crude pipeline while spilled over 3,000bbl of oil in the Amazonian region.
In February 2016, Peru's Energy and Mines Ministry approved Repsol ' s environmental impact assessment of the Sagari natural gas project located in the jungles of Cuzco. The project requires an investment of USD958mn and will involve the drilling of two development wells as well as associated gas production infrastructure.
The start up of LNG exports from the US in March will threaten the market share of Peruvian supplies. We expect Cheniere's 4.5mntpa Sabine Pass train 1 will come online in the coming weeks, with a successive tranche of export volumes coming on stream thereafter. Though this will compete with Peru's exports, we believe the country will remain a dominant player in the region due to a lower variable cost of production compared to US supplies.
The Peru Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Peru including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Peru Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Peru to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.