BMI View: Production of crude and natural gas will grow over the next decade due to a strong project pipeline and continued government support. However, the country will produce below its potential as a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market will reduce the attractiveness of the country's oil and ga s sector in the wake of the industry-wide downturn .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: MEM, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||175.6||151.9||138.7||135.3||135.2||136.6||140.2|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||194.0||204.5||204.5||204.5||204.5||214.7||223.3|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||231.4||254.0||275.1||302.2||344.7||413.4||524.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||12.9||12.5||13.1||13.6||14.0||14.6||15.2|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||6.6||6.7||7.0||7.3||7.6||8.2||8.6|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Peru will experience region-leading growth in 2017, driven by copper production growth, infrastructure investment and rising consumer spending. However, we see growing risks of political gridlock in the country, which have the potential to block business-friendly reforms from being implemented.
Investment into the hydrocarbons sector will largely go toward natural gas given Peru's position in the LNG export market and rising domestic demand. Crude production will suffer continued declines as investment into the sector wanes on the back of sustained commodity price weakness.
In November, the Northern Oil Pipeline suffered two attacks, reaching nine in the year to date. These incidents spilled over 7,000bbl of crude in the Amazon and reduced refining operations given a deficit of feedstock with the pipeline down since February. Though efforts to crack down on those who damage infrastructure have increased in recent months, we do not believe they will prove sufficient amid continued insecurity in the region.
We expect the completion of the USD7.3bn Southern Gas Pipeline (GSP) will be delayed to 2019 following the exit of its operator Odebrecht in April 2016. On November 19, the government announced it was considering scrapping the original contract for project and re-tendering construction and operations of the project in early 2017. The GSP - which is currently 34% completed - will supply feedstock to two thermal power plants currently under construction in Ilo and Mollendo.
Full commissioning of the second 4.5mntpa train of the Sabine Pass liquefaction facility in October will threaten Peru's LNG market share. Though this will compete with Peruvian exports, we believe the country will remain a dominant player in the region due to its lower variable cost of production compared to the US.
The Peru Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Peru including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Peru Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Peru to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.