Philippines Agribusiness Report

Published 15 May 2015

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We hold a positive view on Philippines agribusiness sector in the long term, given the country's potential for new sectors expansion, such as palm oil. We particularly like the outlook for sugar production, and believe the livestock sector will continue to show healthy growth rates. The Philippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support will foster domestic and foreign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems, especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. These inefficiencies will become increasingly crippling as South East Asia moves towards the ASEAN Economic Community, which is supposed to lead to trade and investment liberalization in the region. Although the Philippines' government appears to have taken the measure of the challenge and is now supporting rice and sugar production, agriculture in the country remains uncompetitive. As such, the sector is at risk of low cost imports from its neighbours over the medium term.

Grains Dominating
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2007-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 2018/19: 19.6% to 2.9mn tonnes. Sugar production growth will be driven by improvements in yields. The government approved the Sugarcane Industry Development Act, which is aimed at diversifying the sugar sector towards more value-added products and will provide financing to farmers.

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/198: 14.1% to 976,000 tonnes. Poultry production will record steady but unspectacular growth. Growth will be driven by investment, both domestic and foreign.

  • Rice production growth to 2018/19: 8.9% to 12.9mn tonnes. Production growth will be fuelled by continued improvements in infrastructure and yields as the government looks to attain self-sufficiency and support output.

  • Agribusiness market value: 5.4% increase to USD32.4bn in 2015, forecast to grow on average 4.7% annually between 2015 and 2019.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Grains Outlook
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
15
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
18
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
18
Rice Outlook
20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2019)
21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
26
Sugar Outlook
27
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
28
Table: Philippines - Sugar Mills Operational Data
29
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
32
Dairy Outlook
34
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
35
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
35
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
35
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
36
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
40
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
40
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
41
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
41
Livestock Outlook
42
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
43
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
43
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
43
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
47
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
47
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)
48
Commodities Price Analysis
49
Monthly Softs Strategy
49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
58
Monthly Grains Strategy
59
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
66
Upstream Analysis
67
Asia GM Outlook
67
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
71
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
72
Asia Machinery Outlook
77
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
79
Downstream Analysis
84
Mass Grocery Retail
84
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
86
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
86
Drink
87
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
87
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
88
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
90
Food
91
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
92
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
93
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
94
Regional Overview
95
Competitive Landscape
101
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
101
Demographic Forecast
102
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)
103
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025)
103
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025)
104
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)
104
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)
105
Methodology
107
Industry Forecast Methodology
107
Sector-Specific Methodology
108

The Philippines Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Philippines Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc