Philippines Agribusiness Report

Published 10 February 2015

  • 121 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term , given the potential for expansion into new sectors such as palm oil. Our outlook is especially positive for sugar production, and we also believe the livestock sector will continue to post healthy growth rates. The Philippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support, will foster domestic and foreign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems, especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. This paradox is well illustrated on the island of Mindanao: a recent peace deal between the government and a rebel group could inspire investor confidence, which would help to develop the region's strong agricultural potential. However, lingering issues regarding business environment and security issues in Mindanao will restrict the development of the island.

Grains Dominating
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2007-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 201 8/19 : 26.3% to 9.5 mn tonnes. Corn output will be buoyed by the increase in domestic demand and government policies. Production will also be aided by higher tariffs on all US-based corn imports, the origin of most Philippine corn imports.

  • Poultry production growth to 201 8/198 : 1 4.1 % to 976,000 tonnes. Poultry production will record steady but unspectacular growth. Growth will be driven by investment, both domestic and foreign.

  • Rice consumption growth to 201 9: 5.1 % to 13. 6 mn tonnes. Per capita consumption growth is expected to slow as the government encourages the consumption of other goods (such as corn and cassava) to limit demand as part of the country's self-sufficiency strategy. However, the combination of strong population growth and only moderate production growth means that the country will remain one of the world's largest net importers of rice.

  • A gribusiness market value: 5.4% increase to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
13
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
15
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
16
Rice Outlook
17
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2012-2018)
18
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
22
Sugar Outlook
23
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
24
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
28
Dairy Outlook
29
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
30
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
30
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
31
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
31
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
35
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
35
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
36
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
36
Livestock Outlook
37
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
38
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
38
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
38
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
40
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
40
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
40
Featured Analysis
42
Agribusiness: Winners And Losers From AEC
42
Table: Selected Risk Ratings
43
Table: ASEAN Economic Community - Winners & Losers In Selected Agribusiness Sectors
44
Commodities Price Analysis
50
Monthly Softs Strategy
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
60
Monthly Grains Strategy
60
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
69
Upstream Analysis
70
Asia GM Outlook
70
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
76
Asia Machinery Outlook
77
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
77
Table: Selected Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
81
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
85
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
89
Downstream Analysis
91
Food
91
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
92
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
94
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
96
Mass Grocery Retail
97
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
98
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
99
Drink
100
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
100
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
101
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
102
Regional Overview
104
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms
105
Table: ASEAN Economic Community - Winners And Losers In Selected Agribusiness Sectors
106
Competitive Landscape
109
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USD mn)
109
Demographic Forecast
110
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)
111
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025)
111
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025)
112
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)
112
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Sector-Specific Methodology
116

The Philippines Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Philippines Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc