Philippines Autos Report

Published 17 March 2015

  • 55 pages
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$1,295.00
Philippines Autos Report

Sales

Based on latest sales figures from the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. and the Truck Manufacturers Association, auto sales in the Philippines rose 19.3% year-on-year in January, to 18,662 units. The strong start to the year bodes well for our bullish outlook on the vehicle market and we are maintaining our forecast for auto sales to grow 13.2% in 2015.

While our full-year auto sales growth forecast remains below the rise in sales in January, it is informed by our view of base effects weighing on growth in the coming months. Given that sales have surged since 2012, they will now face a high base established in 2014, which will make it harder for the market to continue posting heady double-digit growth rates.

We expect growth in the passenger car segment to outperform in 2015, similar to 2013 and 2014. Our view is predicated on the robust domestic consumer story, which will remain a key driver of private consumption growth ( see 'Auto Sales Cruising On Consumption Growth', December 8 2014). Indeed, we forecast real private consumption to grow 5.2% in 2015, after rising by 5.4% in 2014.

Production

Meanwhile, we maintain our outlook for vehicle production, forecasting production to grow 14.4% in 2015, with demand for autos still largely being fulfilled by imports. Automakers mainly operate assembly plants rather than fully developed manufacturing facilities, as a weak supplier base has resulted in car manufacturers having to import vehicle parts, raising production costs.

Although the Philippines government is heading in the right direction with its recent proposal to provide manufacturers with tax credits under the Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy programme, we believe the requirements to qualify for the programme need to be more achievable in order to make it attractive to more firms.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
12
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
12
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
13
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
13
Macroeconomic Forecast
19
Economic Analysis
19
Remittances To Remain Supportive Of Private Consumption Growth
20
Modest Export Rebound On The Cards
21
Investment To Recover Amid Rising Business Confidence
22
Rebuilding Efforts To Spur Government Spending
23
Risks To Outlook
23
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2009-2018)
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
27
Competitive Landscape
28
Passenger Cars
28
Table: Top 10 Carmakers In Philippines By Sales In 2013 (Including AVID Members)
28
Industry News
30
Commercial Vehicles
32
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles - Production & Sales, 2012-2018
32
Motorcycles
33
Company Profile
34
Company Monitor
34
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP)
37
Honda Cars Philippines (HCP)
38
Regional Overview
39
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
39
Global Industry Overview
45
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
45
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
45
Trucks Give North America A Lift
46
India Brings Relief To BRICs
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Demographic Outlook
50
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
56
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Philippines Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Philippines Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Philippines.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc