BMI View: Overall, 2015 will be a year of average growth for the Philippine freight industry. We expect the road, rail and air freight sector to grow by 2.6%, 6.5 % and 6.1 % respectively . Strong consumer demand and the boom in the construction sector mitigate weak export performance. Looking ahead, we expect the rail sector to grow in importance.
While the Philippines' real GDP growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q115 from 6.6% in Q414, owing largely to weaknesses in exports, we nevertheless expect strong domestic demand to provide a measure of support for the economy. As such, we maintain our forecast for the country's real GDP growth to come in at a strong 6.0% in 2015.
The trade deficit is forecasted to increase to USD17.4bn in 2015 reflecting persistent weaknesses in key trading partners. Philippine exports to Japan and China fell by a substantial 19.4% and 12.0% y-o-y in Q1 2015. Weak export demand from these economies will weigh on growth of the freight sector over the medium term.
In 2015, we expect to see low tonnage growth in road freight as weak exports and ongoing congestion problems weigh on growth rates and will continue to do. Thus we forecast low average growth of 2.2% between 2015 and 2019.
We anticipate the rail freight sector to see tonnage growth of 6.5% in 2015, a minor slip from its 2014 estimated figure. Growth is expected to pick up over the forecast period reflecting significant improvements in the rail network and an anticipated boom in the construction sector. Rail freight is expected to increase to 7.842 mn tonnes by 2019.
After an erratic history, we anticipate air freight to embark on a more stable growth path with growth rates remaining between 6% and 7% over the period 2016 to 2019.
In terms of market share, the road freight sector will continue to dominate the freight mix over 2015, with over 98.6% of the total market. Rail retains its distant second place with 1.15% of the country's freight market.
The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.