Philippines Freight Transport Report

Published 14 May 2015

  • 49 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Freight Transport Report

BMI View - The overall picture for the Philippines freight industry is mixed by mode in 2015. Whereas at one end of the spectrum, we expect to see the air freight sector contract by over 11%, at the other, rail freight is set to see tonnage throughput growth of 5.00% in 2015. Exports are forecast to be outperformed by imports this year. Looking ahead, we expect the general slowdown in regional economies to continue weighing on the performance of exports over the coming quarters, which will inevitably result in some downward pressure on economic growth in 2015.

The main drag that we expect to affect the Philippines freight industry over the short term at least will be moderating economic growth in China and general weakness in the Japanese economy - both key export partners. Indeed, Japan and China were the first and third largest export destinations, respectively, receiving 22.5% and 13.0% of total Philippine exports in 2014.

In a sign of waning external demand, Philippine exports to Japan fell by 21.7% y-o-y to USD1.8bn in the first two months of 2015. Meanwhile, exports to China contracted 20.3% y-o-y to USD889.3mn. Growth in exports to these two major trading partners will remain patchy, as these economies will likely continue to suffer from general weakness over the coming months.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 1.62% y-o-y in 2015 to reach 498.21mn tonnes.

  • We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 5.00% y-o-y in 2015 to reach 5.74mn tonnes.

  • We forecast total air freight volumes will fall by 11.66% y-o-y in 2015 to reach 839,000 tonnes.

  • We forecast total trade value to rise 5.55% to reach USD180.55bn in 2015.

  • The top trade partners will be Japan, the US, mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Freight Transport
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Trade Forecast
14
Table: Trade Overview (Philippines 2012-2019)
15
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Philippines 2012-2019)
16
Table: Main Import Partners
17
Table: Main Export Partners
18
Road Freight Forecast
19
Table: Road Freight (Philippines 2012-2019)
20
Rail Freight Forecast
20
Table: Rail Freight (Philippines 2012-2019)
21
Air Freight Forecast
22
Table: Air Freight (Philippines 2012-2019)
23
Company Profile
24
International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI)
24
Political Outlook
29
Domestic Politics
29
Long-Term Political Outlook
31
Table: Table: Philippines Political Overview
34
Oil Price Outlook
36
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
36
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
36
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
37
Macroeconomic Forecasts
39
Economic Analysis
39
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2010-2019)
42
Demographic Forecast
43
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)
44
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025)
44
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025)
45
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)
45
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)
46
Methodology
48
Industry Forecast Methodology
48
Sector-Specific Methodology
49
Sources
49

The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc