While the Philippines will continue to run a trade deficit, sustained robust growth in services exports will allow the country to generate a current account surplus with this growth providing a spur for the country's freight industry. We forecast the country's current account surplus to rise to 3.8% of GDP in 2015 from an estimated 3.7% in 2014.
Although the Philippines freight industry will face headwinds from continued weakness in the Japanese economy (a key trade partner), we nevertheless expect the country's current account position to remain strong in 2015, on the back of a continued surplus in the services category as well as sustained robust growth in overseas workers' remittances. A strong current account position will therefore help to sustain the ongoing improvement in the Philippines' external accounts, which will greatly reduce systemic risk faced by the country.
The air freight sector in the Philippines is set to lead the way in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) growth with annual gains of 5.55% pencilled in for 2015. Meanwhile, sticking with last quarter's forecasts, the maritime sector will be headed by the Port of Manila International Container Terminal in 2015 with growth of 4.80% forecast, ahead of the largest port in the country, Cebu (3.70%).
Headline Industry Data
2015 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.55% to 795,000 tonnes.
2015 port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 3.70% to 33.14mn tonnes.
2015 port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 4.80% to 22.80mn tonnes.
2015 total trade forecast to grow 5.55%, with exports growing 5.40% compared with import growth of 5.70%.
Key Industry Trends
Government Invites Bids For Six Regional Airport Projects : The Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) and the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines have invited bids from interested parties for six regional airport projects worth PHP116.23bn (USD2.59bn), according to a notice published in three...
The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.