Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Philippines Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Philippines will become increasingly dependent on energy imports over the next 10 years as falling domestic crude oil and natural gas production prove inadequate to offset rising demand. Significant new plays to replace Malampaya gas field does not seem likely because of the current slowdown in upstream activities and lingering tensions in prospective areas in the South China Sea.

Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: DOE, JODI, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.4 16.0 14.0 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.8
Refined products production, 000b/d 162.5 207.5 217.9 226.6 235.7 242.7 247.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 352.2 406.3 421.7 438.1 455.6 474.5 494.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 55.00 68.00 65.00 67.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • The Philippines is set to start its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade when Energy World Corporation's 4.1bcm LNG import terminal at Pagbilao comes online in H216.

  • First Gen Corp's USD1.0bn LNG import project in Batangas is set to come online by 2021/2022. PNOC is a potential partner in the venture, with the two parties having engaged in preliminary discussions.

  • The implementation of Euro-IV fuels standards nationwide from January 2016 will increase domestic supply of higher-quality fuels (gasoline, low-sulphur diesel, LPG & petrochemicals) at the expense of heavier, more pollutive fuels.

  • The ongoing spat between Shell Philippines and the Department of Energy, and the ensuing sense of resource nationalism is negative for the upstream segment, which is in dire need of greater foreign capital and expertise.

  • PNOC-EC made a potentially commercial gas discovery at the Mangosteen field, which could provide a small boost to domestic gas output in the latter half of the decade.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2020-2025)
11
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Philippines - Key Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trend
13
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2014-2019)
14
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2020-2025)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2014-2019)
17
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2020-2025)
18
Refining
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2014-2019)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2020-2025)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2020-2025)
23
Gas Consumption
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2020-2025)
26
Trade - Oil
27
Crude Oil Trade
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2014-2019)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2020-2025)
30
Fuels Trade
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2014-2019)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Supply Sources
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2020-2025)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
39
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
40
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
41
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Philippines - Risk/Reward Index
43
Upstream Index - Overview
43
Downstream Index - Overview
43
Market Overview
45
Philippines Energy Market Overview
45
Regulatory Regime
45
Licensing Rounds
47
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences
47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Table: Oil Refineries
48
Oil Storage Facilities
48
Service Stations
48
LNG Terminals
49
Table: LNG Terminals In The Philippines
49
Gas Pipelines
49
Competitive Landscape
51
Company Profile
52
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
52
Latest Updates
52
Table: Major Current Assets
53
Table: PNOC - Key Financial Data
53
Shell Philippines
54
Latest Updates
54
Table: Major Current Assets
55
Table: Royal Dutch Shell - Key Financial Data
55
Regional Overview
56
Asia Regional Overview
56
Glossary
64
Table: Glossary Of Terms
64
Methodology
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Source
68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
68
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
70
Table: Weighting
71

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.