BMI View: Stagnant production and rising consumption will ensure that the Philippines remains a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels over 2015-2024. The start-up of LNG imports in 2016 via the Pagbilao LNG terminal will free domestic gas demand to surpass production, paving the way for greater gas use in several sectors including power, industrial and the residential sectors.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||24.0||24.0||26.4||26.2||25.7||25.0||25.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||3.5||3.6||3.7||3.8||3.7||3.6||3.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||3.3||3.5||3.7||4.1||4.5||4.9||5.2|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||153.6||162.5||169.0||177.4||186.3||195.6||197.6|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||333.3||355.8||366.6||374.7||383.8||395.5||409.4|
The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:
We forecast a decline in the Philippines' proved oil and gas reserves, as sustained weakness in global oil prices slowdown exploration, which in turn limits the chances of making new discoveries.
Crude oil production will fluctuate around the 25,000b/d-28,000b/d range throughout our forecast period to 2024. We note significant downside risk to our forecast particularly from 2019, as these are based on projects where final investment decisions have not been made.
While Phase II upgrades at the Malampaya will boost natural gas production to 2016, natural declines will weigh on overall output thereafter. A decision to proceed with Phase III for Malampaya poses upside risk to this forecast.
Although refining capacity will remain flat, recent upgrades have equipped these facilities with abilities to produce Euro-IV standard gasoline and diesel, in line with the government's new regulation to require all new vehicles to operate on these higher-grade fuels from January 2016.
Solid economic performance and strong auto sales growth will support refined fuels consumption to increase over 2015-2024. The start of LNG imports in 2016 will pave the way for domestic gas demand to exceed production; the availability of additional gas supplies will allow for greater gas use in the power, industrial and the residential sectors.
The Philippines will remain a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels, as falling domestic production lags rising consumption. Middle Eastern suppliers, led by Saudi Arabia, followed by UAE, Qatar as well as Iran, will remain the country's largest supplier of crude oil, while South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore will retain their positions as the largest providers of refined fuels.
The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.