Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Philippines Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Stagnant production and rising consumption will ensure that the Philippines remains a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels over 2015-2024. The start-up of LNG imports in 2016 via the Pagbilao LNG terminal will free domestic gas demand to surpass production, paving the way for greater gas use in several sectors including power, industrial and the residential sectors.

Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 24.0 24.0 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.0 25.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 153.6 162.5 169.0 177.4 186.3 195.6 197.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 333.3 355.8 366.6 374.7 383.8 395.5 409.4
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • We forecast a decline in the Philippines' proved oil and gas reserves, as sustained weakness in global oil prices slowdown exploration, which in turn limits the chances of making new discoveries.

  • Crude oil production will fluctuate around the 25,000b/d-28,000b/d range throughout our forecast period to 2024. We note significant downside risk to our forecast particularly from 2019, as these are based on projects where final investment decisions have not been made.

  • While Phase II upgrades at the Malampaya will boost natural gas production to 2016, natural declines will weigh on overall output thereafter. A decision to proceed with Phase III for Malampaya poses upside risk to this forecast.

  • Although refining capacity will remain flat, recent upgrades have equipped these facilities with abilities to produce Euro-IV standard gasoline and diesel, in line with the government's new regulation to require all new vehicles to operate on these higher-grade fuels from January 2016.

  • Solid economic performance and strong auto sales growth will support refined fuels consumption to increase over 2015-2024. The start of LNG imports in 2016 will pave the way for domestic gas demand to exceed production; the availability of additional gas supplies will allow for greater gas use in the power, industrial and the residential sectors.

  • The Philippines will remain a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels, as falling domestic production lags rising consumption. Middle Eastern suppliers, led by Saudi Arabia, followed by UAE, Qatar as well as Iran, will remain the country's largest supplier of crude oil, while South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore will retain their positions as the largest providers of refined fuels.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2019-2024)
10
Table: Philippines: Basins And Exploration Results To Date
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Philippines Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
20
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2013-2018)
20
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2019-2024)
20
Refining
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2019-2024)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2013-2018)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2019-2024)
26
Gas Consumption
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2019-2024)
30
Trade - Oil
33
Crude Oil Trade
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
33
Refined Oil Trade
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2013-2018)
39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
41
Supply Sources
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
44
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
45
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
48
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
48
Philippines - Risk/Reward Index
50
Philippines Upstream Index - Overview
50
Philippines Upstream Index - Rewards
50
Philippines Upstream Index - Risks
50
Philippines Downstream Index - Overview
51
Market Overview
52
Philippines Energy Market Overview
52
Political Regime
52
Regulatory Regime
52
Licensing Rounds
54
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences
55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
Oil Refineries
56
Table: Oil Refineries
56
Oil Storage Facilities
56
Service Stations
56
LNG Terminals
57
Table: LNG Terminals In The Philippines
57
Gas Pipelines
57
Competitive Landscape
59
Competitive Landscape Summary
59
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
60
Company Profile
61
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
61
Petron
66
Shell Philippines
70
Chevron Philippines
75
BCP Energy/Nido Petroleum
79
Other Summaries
83
Regional Overview
88
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
88
Global Industry Overview
93
Global Energy Market Overview
93
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
97
Appendix
99
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
100
Asia - Regional Appendix
101
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
110
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
111
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
112
Philippines - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
113
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
113
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
113
Philippines - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018)
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024)
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018)
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024)
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018)
119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024)
120
Glossary
121
Table: Glossary Of Terms
121
Methodology
123
Industry Forecast Methodology
123
Source
125
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
125
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
127
Table: Weighting
128

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.