Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 June 2015

  • 146 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The Philippines will likely remain a small producer of both oil and gas over our forecast period. Faster consumption growth than output increases will see the Philippines remain a net importer of crude oil and oil products, as well as join ing the ranks of gas importers in the world.

Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 24.0 24.5 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.7 26.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 153.6 162.5 169.0 177.4 186.3 195.6 197.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 333.3 355.8 366.6 374.7 383.8 395.5 409.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.1

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • We forecast a decline in the Philippines' oil and gas reserves, owing to the limited number of discoveries made and the slow rate of exploration.

  • Crude oil production will see small increases throughout most of our forecast period to 2024. We note significant downside risk to our forecast particularly from 2019, as these are based on projects where final investment decisions have not been made.

  • We have downgraded our expectations for gas production from the Malampaya field. This will see a decline in gas production in the Philippines from 2016. A decision to proceed with Phase III for Malampaya poses upside risk to this forecast.

  • Although refining capacity will remain flat, upgrades to the country's two refineries will help improve utilisation rates and refined oil output over our forecast period.

  • Oil consumption will trend upwards over the long-term alongside economic growth.

  • The shortfall of domestic crude and domestic...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2019-2024)
9
Table: Philippines: Basins And Exploration Results To Date
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Philippines Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2013-2018)
14
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2019-2024)
17
Refining
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2013-2018)
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2019-2024)
20
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2019-2024)
29
Trade - Oil
32
Crude Oil Trade
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
32
Refined Oil Trade
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2013-2018)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
41
Supply Sources
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
44
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
45
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
47
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Philippines - Risk/Reward Index
50
Philippines Upstream Index - Overview
50
Philippines Upstream Index - Rewards
50
Philippines Upstream Index - Risks
50
Philippines Downstream Index - Overview
50
Market Overview
52
Philippines Energy Market Overview
52
Overview/State Role
54
Licensing And Regulation
54
Government Policy
56
Table: Industry Targets As Set In PEP (2012-2030)
57
Licensing Rounds
59
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences
60
International Energy Relations
61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
63
Oil Refineries
63
Table: Downstream Projects
63
Oil Storage Facilities
64
Service Stations
64
Oil Terminals/Ports
65
LNG Terminals
65
Gas Pipelines
67
Competitive Landscape
70
Competitive Landscape Summary
70
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
71
Company Profile
72
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
72
Petron
77
Shell Philippines
80
Chevron Philippines
85
BCP Energy/Nido Petroleum
89
Other Summaries
92
Regional Overview
97
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
97
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
97
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
100
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
101
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
105
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
106
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
108
Global Industry Overview
111
Oil Price Outlook
111
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
111
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
112
Appendix
119
Asia - Regional Appendix
119
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
127
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
128
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
129
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
130
Philippines - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
131
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018)
131
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024)
131
Philippines - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
132
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018)
132
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024)
133
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018)
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024)
136
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018)
137
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024)
138
Glossary
139
Table: Glossary Of Terms
139
Methodology
141
Industry Forecast Methodology
141
Source
143
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
143
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
145
Table: Weighting
146

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc