BMI View: The Philippines will likely remain a small producer of both oil and gas over our forecast period. Faster consumption growth than output increases will see the Philippines remain a net importer of crude oil and oil products, as well as join ing the ranks of gas importers in the world.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||24.0||24.5||27.1||26.9||26.4||25.7||26.4|
|Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d||153.6||162.5||169.0||177.4||186.3||195.6||197.6|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||333.3||355.8||366.6||374.7||383.8||395.5||409.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||3.5||3.6||3.7||3.8||3.7||3.6||3.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||3.3||3.5||3.8||4.2||4.7||5.0||5.1|
The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:
We forecast a decline in the Philippines' oil and gas reserves, owing to the limited number of discoveries made and the slow rate of exploration.
Crude oil production will see small increases throughout most of our forecast period to 2024. We note significant downside risk to our forecast particularly from 2019, as these are based on projects where final investment decisions have not been made.
We have downgraded our expectations for gas production from the Malampaya field. This will see a decline in gas production in the Philippines from 2016. A decision to proceed with Phase III for Malampaya poses upside risk to this forecast.
Although refining capacity will remain flat, upgrades to the country's two refineries will help improve utilisation rates and refined oil output over our forecast period.
Oil consumption will trend upwards over the long-term alongside economic growth.
The shortfall of domestic crude and domestic refined oil to demand will see the Philippines continue as a net importer of both crude and refined oil.
Gas consumption will see greater growth than oil as it becomes an increasingly important source of fuel for power generation.
The start-up of an LNG import terminal at Pagbilao and a likely project at Batangas will allow the Philippines' gas demand to grow beyond domestic gas output. However, we note that infrastructure delays risk pushing back the country's gas demand growth beyond our forecast period.