Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Philippines Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Philippines is set to remain a net importer of crude oil and refined products over the next 10 years, on account of insufficient production and rising demand. The introduction of Euro-IV fuels standard nationwide will increase demand for higher-quality fuels, such as gasoline, low-sulphur diesel, LPG and petrochemicals products. The impending start-up of Pagbilao LNG in 2016 will allow for the country to begin first LNG trade, paving the way for greater gas use in the power, industrial and residential sectors.

Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: DOE, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.4 20.3 20.2 19.8 19.3 19.7 20.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 162.5 209.1 219.6 228.4 237.5 244.6 249.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 355.8 402.9 419.1 436.5 455.3 475.8 498.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • Despite delays, we remain positive towards Energy World Corporation's (EWC) Pagbilao LNG project (due to sufficient funding and feed gas) which remains on course to come online in 2016.

  • Natural declines at the aging Malampaya field will hit the Philippines' condensates and natural gas output, contributing to the weakening of overall hydrocarbon production.

  • Implementation of Euro-IV fuels standards nationwide from January 2016 will increase domestic supply of higher-quality fuels (gasoline, low-sulphur diesel, LPG & petrochemicals) at the expense of heavier, more-pollutive fuels.

  • The Philippines will remain a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels, as falling domestic production lags rising consumption. Middle Eastern suppliers, led by Saudi Arabia, followed by UAE, Qatar as well as Iran, will remain the country's largest supplier of crude oil, while South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore will retain their positions as the largest providers of refined fuels.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2020-2025)
12
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Philippines - Key Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trend
15
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2014-2019)
16
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2020-2025)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2014-2019)
20
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2020-2025)
20
Refining
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2020-2025)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2020-2025)
26
Gas Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2020-2025)
29
Trade - Oil
30
Crude Oil Trade
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2014-2020)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2020-2025)
33
Fuels Trade
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Supply Sources
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2014-2019)
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2020-2025)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
41
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
44
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Philippines - Risk/Reward Index
46
Upstream Index - Overview
46
Upstream Index - Rewards
46
Upstream Index - Risks
46
Downstream Index - Overview
46
Market Overview
48
Philippines Energy Market Overview
48
Regulatory Regime
48
Licensing Rounds
50
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Oil Refineries
51
Oil Storage Facilities
51
Service Stations
51
LNG Terminals
52
Table: LNG Terminals In The Philippines
52
Gas Pipelines
52
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
55
Company Profile
56
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
56
Petron
62
Shell Philippines
66
Chevron Philippines
72
BCP Energy/Nido Petroleum
76
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
85
Industry Trend Analysis
85
Glossary
93
Table: Glossary Of Terms
93
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Source
97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
97
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
99
Table: Weighting
100

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.