Philippines Petrochemicals Report

Published 24 June 2015

  • 68 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Petrochemicals Report

There were mixed results in the Philippines petrochemicals industry with plastic output continuing to contract. Problems associated with the start-up of new plants have not helped matters, but BMI's latest Philippines Petrochemicals Report envisages strengthening performance in 2015 as JG Summit Petrochemicals Corporation (JGSPC) ramps up capacity utilisation at its new cracker complex and economic prospects improve.

In Q115, the value of production index (VaPI) for chemicals and rubber improved following a poor performance in 2014 with growth of 41.7% and 12.8% year-on-year (y-o-y). However, plastic fell by an average of 6.8% y-o-y in Q115. Production was lower than expected due to problems bringing into operation JGSPC's complex with 320,000tpa ethylene and 190,000tpa propylene. Operations were temporarily halted in mid-June 2014 when the facility broke down leading to a big fire. The company was on the third phase of its plant commissioning when the accident occurred.

The outlook for 2015 is more positive with the JGSPC complex set to ramp up production and the local market expected to see stronger growth. Both domestic consumption and export of manufactured goods, as well as a rise in construction materials should spur demand for polymer products. In the long term, the development of the automotive supply industry could boost demand for a wide range of polymers and synthetic rubbers, potentially laying the basis for investment in new capacity.

  • There is potential to double JGSPC's capacity in the future, but this depends on both access to competitive feedstock supplies and a recovery in regional and global demand.

  • The Bataan Refinery upgrade 2 project was due to come into full operation in Q115 with a new fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) unit, which will have a propylene production capacity of 250,000tpa. The project will also produce other by-products, such as petrochemicals feedstock - particularly propylene - which is to be sold to plastic producers. As a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Philippines Petrochemicals, 2011-2019
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2010-2019)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
22
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking
26
Philippines Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
26
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Upstream
29
Company Profile
31
JG Summit Petrochemicals Corp
31
Table: JG Summit Financial Results, PHPmn
32
Petron Corporation
34
Table: Petron Financial Results, PHPmn
36
Regional Overview
37
Asia Overview
37
2015 outlook: trouble for mature producers
37
Feedstock shifts
38
The coming surge: 2015 and 2016
39
China and India will dominate Asia demand
40
Rapid Growth In South East Asia
43
Global Industry Overview
46
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
46
Medium-term outlook
47
China versus the US: feedstock wars
49
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
54
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
57
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
57
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
58
Demographic Forecast
60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)
61
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025)
61
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025)
62
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)
62
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)
63
Glossary
65
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
65
Methodology
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
68
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
70

The Philippines Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Philippines Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc