BMI View: Healthcare access in the Philippine s has improved through the expansion of the country's universal health insurance scheme and the proposed 2016 government budget will aid further expansion. The count r y ' s growing population, increasing disease burden (particularly cancer and cardiovascular diseases) and rising acceptance of affordable generic drugs, will drive growth in the pharmaceutical market. However, pharmaceutical firms seeking to capture the commercial opportunities from the large unmet medical need in the Philippines's oncology space will face challenges, as undiagnosed cancer cases remain high and many advanced treatments still require out of pocket payment.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PHP145.05bn (USD3.28bn) in 2014, rising to PHP150.44bn (USD3.27bn) in 2015; +3.7% in local currency terms and -0.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter .
Healthcare: PHP562.90bn (USD12.74bn) in 2014, rising to PHP622.99bn (USD13.54bn) in 2015; +10.7% in local currency terms and +6.4% in US dollar terms. Revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.245||3.282||3.271||3.277||3.406||3.597||3.803|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.21||1.15||1.10||1.06||1.00||0.95||0.91|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||27.6||25.8||24.1||22.7||21.6||20.6||19.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||11.756||12.735||13.544||14.407||15.793||17.493||19.283|
Out of the 19 pharmaceutical markets assessed in Asia Pacific, the Philippines remains in 14th place (scoring 44.9 out of 100), trailing the regional average in most metrics. In Q116, Japan remains the most attractive market in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 73.3 out of 100), followed by South Korea (66.2). Compared with its peers, the Philippines' Risk/Reward Index score is dragged down by industry characteristics such as policy enforcement (policy enforcement score of 2.8 out of 7).
In October 2015, the Philippine Food & Drug Administration issued an advisory to recall specific batches of Nolvadex-D (tamoxifen citrate), a breast cancer drug distributed locally by Astrazeneca Pharmaceuticals Philippines, due to flawed packaging.
In September 2015, an oncology cost study in the Philippines (Peso study), revealed that 56% of patients suffered financial catastrophe a year after being diagnosed with cancer, 36% of patients died after a year; and only 8% remained alive without experiencing financial catastrophe.
In September 2015, Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) reported a remarkable increase in membership of health insurance coverage to more than 80% of the population, an increase from 38% in 2000, placing the country closer to reaching its target of universal health coverage for all.
In August 2015, an IMS Health survey revealed that generic drugs make up nearly 65% of the total pharmaceutical market in the country, with a 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase since 2010 and originator products represent only 35% of the market in the country.
The Philippines' Department of Health's (DOH) budget increased 63.4% in 2015 when compared to the 2013 allocation, according to the Department of Finance.
BMI Economic View
We are slightly downgrading our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 5.7%, from 6.0% previously, owing to growing external headwinds. Meanwhile, we are retaining our 2016 real GDP growth forecast at 6.0%, as the Philippines will remain a regional outperformer on the back of domestic resilience. That said, political risks stemming from 2016 general elections might pose downside risks to our constructive stance on the Philippine economy.
BMI Political View
The Philippines' successful economic reforms could be jeopardised if the opposition wins the May 2016 general elections, while a victory by the ruling Liberal Party would ensure continuity of outgoing President Aquino's investor-friendly policies.
The Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Philippines, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.