BMI View: The Philippine pharmaceutical market is relatively small considering its large population and disease burden. Low government spending on healthcare, which falls below the WHO ' s global standards, and low-income levels limit opportunities for innovative drugmakers. The expansion of universal healthcare in the country will strengthen access to medicine s and drive sales over the long term, particularly for the generic drug sector. However, the successful expansion of healthcare is largely dependant of the country ' s economic and political stability, with the newly elected president Duterte ushering in a period of uncertainty.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PHP150.44bn (USD3.33bn) in 2015, rising to PHP156.19bn (USD3.33bn) in 2016; +3.8% in local currency terms and -0.05% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter .
Healthcare: PHP656.11bn (USD14.52bn) in 2015, rising to PHP722.32bn (USD15.38bn) in 2016; +10.1% in local currency terms and +6.0% in US dollar terms. Revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.280||3.330||3.330||3.490||3.680||3.860||4.040|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.15||1.11||1.06||1.01||0.96||0.90||0.86|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||24.4||22.9||21.6||20.5||19.4||18.4||17.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.460||14.520||15.380||17.080||18.990||20.920||23.020|
Out of the 19 pharmaceutical markets assessed in the Asia Pacific, the Philippines is ranked in 14th place (scoring 45.0 out of 100), trailing the regional average in all subsectors. In Q316, Japan remains the most attractive market in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 79.4), followed by South Korea (65.2). Compared with its peers, the Philippines' Risk/Reward Index score is dragged down by industry characteristics such as policy enforcement (policy enforcement score of 2.8 out of 7) and per capita spending (score of 2.4 out of 12). Despite scoring below the regional average in many categories, there are plenty of future opportunities and rewards. In particular, scores in two categories stand out positively because they point to future opportunity; namely, a market expenditure score of 12.0 (above the regional average score of 10.5) and a 3.5 score in population growth (compared with regional average score of 2.7). Overall, there are indications that the market is maturing further, with the progressive implementation of a universal healthcare system.
In May 2016, the Philippine Health Secretary Janette Garin told reporters that the country had launched an action plan to combat the spread of the Zika virus, which involves surveillance, clinical management, vector control, and health promotion.
In May 2016, Unilab held its Experts' Convergence for Health Outcomes Summit for a second year, attended by over 1,000 Filipino medical experts learning of the latest innovative medicine and new research in the areas of cardiovascular disease, depression, diabetes and woman's health.
In April 2016, Eisai's subsidiary in the Philippines, HI-Eisai Pharmaceutical, received approval for a new indication for the symptomatic treatment of dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) for anti-Alzheimer's agent Aricept (donepezil hydrochloride) in the Philippines.
In March 2016, the Philippine National Health Accounts showed health expenditure in the country reached over PHP526bn (USD12mn) back in 2013, with out of pocket spending accounting for over 56% of the figure.
After becoming the first country to approve Sanofi Pasteur's dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, the Philippines launched a public dengue immunisation programme with the aim of vaccinating 1mn students from 6,000 public schools in 2016.
BMI Economic View
We remain sanguine on the Philippine economy, which should continue to achieve strong growth on the back of booming services and construction sectors. However, Rodrigo Duterte's victory in May 9's presidential elections represents a salient risk to the Philippines' economic outlook, and for this reason we have kept our 2016 real GDP forecast anchored at 6.0%.
BMI Political View
Rodrigo Duterte's landslide victory in the Philippines' May 9 presidential elections will usher in a period of economic and political uncertainty for the country. In consideration of Duterte's stated disregard for democratic processes, aggressive tone towards foreign powers, support for extrajudicial activities against crime suspects, overly ambitious vows to eradicate crime and corruption within three to six months, and unclear economic platform, we have downgraded the Philippines' short-term political risk score to 66.3, from 68.8 previously.
The Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Philippines, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.