BMI View: The relative distribution of diseases in the Philippines will remain favourable for multinational drugmakers. Chronic conditions such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes will drive demand for healthcare services and medicines. A ccess to medicines will be strengthened by the continued expansion of universal healthcare in the country. However, price caps on high-value medicines and poor intellectual property protection continue to limit commercial opportunities for innovative drug manufacturers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PHP150.4bn (USD3.3bn) in 2015, rising to PHP156.3bn (USD3.3bn) in 2016; +3.9% in local currency terms and -1.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter .
Healthcare: PHP628.3bn (USD13.9bn) in 2015, rising to PHP700.4bn (USD14.7bn) in 2016; +11.5% in local currency terms and +5.9% in US dollar terms. Revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.282||3.328||3.285||3.401||3.593||3.800||4.037|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.15||1.11||1.06||1.01||0.96||0.92||0.88|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||25.8||23.9||22.3||21.1||20.2||19.3||18.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||12.735||13.900||14.724||16.086||17.825||19.659||21.634|
Out of the 19 pharmaceutical markets assessed in Asia Pacific, the Philippines is ranked in 14th place (scoring 46.2 out of 100), trailing the regional average in most metrics. In Q216, Japan is ranked as the most attractive market in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 75.6 out of 100), followed by Australia (66.0). Compared with its peers, the Philippines' Risk/Reward Index score is dragged down by industry characteristics such as policy enforcement (policy enforcement score of 2.8 out of 7) and per capita spending (score of 2.4 out of 12).
French drugmaker Sanofi has secured approval to market its dengue vaccine Dengvaxia in the Philippines, making the country the first in Asia to approve the dengue vaccine.
Hong Kong-based FWD Insurance has pledged to remove a number of 'exclusions in the fine print' regarding age, illnesses or sicknesses, occupation and risky activities in the Philippines to ensure that coverage can be expanded in the coming years.
United Laboratories (Unilab) and Debiopharm International SA launched Pamorelin LA (triptorelin) in the Philippines for the treatment of locally advanced and metastatic hormone-dependent prostate cancer.
According to Mary Antoinette Remonte, Millennium Development Goals Benefit Products Team Head at PhilHealth, HIV cases have been increasing in the Philippines, mainly due to low disease awareness.
BMI Economic View
The Philippine economy continues to shrug off considerable external woes, expanding on the back of robust domestic demand. We expect these factors to remain in place in 2016 and forecast real GDP growth to accelerate slightly to 6.0% (versus 5.8% in 2015). That said, we note that the potential for a regional or global recession, as well as political uncertainty ahead of elections scheduled for May, pose salient risks to our sanguine outlook.
BMI Political View
The peace process in the Philippines has undergone a significant setback with the failure of Congress to approve a bill aimed to strengthen the Bangsamoro region in Mindanao. Security risks will continue to deter investment and slow economic development.
The Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Philippines, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.