BMI View: There will be broad healthcare policy continuity in the Philippines under President Rodrigo Duterte. In contrast to his other more controversial positions, Duterte's statements on healthcare are relatively more nuanced and in line with current policy directions. The appointment of Jean Paulyn Rusell-Ubial, an experienced official from the Department of Health, as health secretary will serve to further maintain the status quo. Risks to multinational drugmakers from Duterte's presidency lie instead in his management of the economy, as out-of-pocket payments are a dominant source of healthcare financing in the Philippines.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PHP150.44bn (USD3.33bn) in 2015, rising to PHP156.19bn (USD3.26bn) in 2016; +3.8% in local currency terms and -2.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter .
Healthcare: PHP656.11bn (USD14.52bn) in 2015, rising to PHP722.32bn (USD15.06bn) in 2016; +10.1% in local currency terms and +3.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.280||3.330||3.260||3.350||3.520||3.680||3.850|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.15||1.11||1.06||1.01||0.96||0.90||0.86|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||24.4||22.9||21.6||20.5||19.4||18.4||17.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.460||14.520||15.060||16.370||18.160||19.950||21.950|
The Philippines is ranked in 14th place out of the 19 pharmaceutical markets assessed in Asia Pacific (scoring 45.0 out of 100), trailing the regional average in all subsectors. In Q416, Japan remains by far the most attractive market in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 80.6), followed by Australia (64.8). Compared with its peers, the Philippines' Risk/Reward Index score is dragged down by industry characteristics such as policy enforcement (policy enforcement score of 2.8 out of 7) and per capita spending (score of 2.4 out of 12). Despite scoring below the regional average in many categories, there are plenty of future opportunities and rewards. In particular, scores in two categories stand out positively because they point to future opportunity; namely, a market expenditure score of 12.0 out of 20 and a 3.5 out of five score in population growth. Overall, there are indications that the market is maturing further, with the progressive implementation of a universal healthcare system.
In August 2016, campaigners called on Filipino authorities to increase their efforts in tackling HIV infections after the country posted a record 841 new cases of the potentiality deadly disease in June.
In August 2016, the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) reported an additional 25,000 cases of dengue fever from the previous month, bringing the total to around 85,000 reported cases since the beginning of the year.
Also in August 2016, the DOH reported it would offer ischemic stroke drug, alteplase, for free in select public hospitals after it allocated PHP30mn to buy the drug at 38% of the original price.
In June 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte appointed Dr Jean Paulyn Rusell-Ubial as the Philippine's new Secretary of Health, replacing Janette Garin.
In June 2016, HI-Eisai Pharmaceutical, Eisai's subsidiary in the Philippines, received approval for a new indication for Eisai's anticancer agent, Halaven (eribulin mesylate), for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma (STS).
BMI Economic View
The political risk associated with May's elections has died down, and Duterte has been able to rally confidence despite widespread concerns around a departure from the status quo. We are constructive on the new president's economic plans, and note that market sentiment has improved over the past few months. Macroeconomic indicators have also been strong. These factors suggest considerable upside risk to our 2016 real GDP forecast of 6.0%.
BMI Political View
The risks associated with Rodrigo Duterte's presidency are myriad, but a departure from the Philippines' status quo does not necessarily entail a negative outcome for the economy. Should Duterte succeed in cutting crime rates without overstepping his executive privilege, while simultaneously bolstering fiscal efficiency, liberalising foreign investment laws, and cutting through the country's bloated bureaucracy, this could take the Philippines' structural growth rate higher still.
The Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Philippines, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.