Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Healthcare access in the Philippine s has improved through the expansion of the country's universal health insurance scheme and the proposed 2016 government budget will aid further expansion. The count r y ' s growing population, increasing disease burden (particularly cancer and cardiovascular diseases) and rising acceptance of affordable generic drugs, will drive growth in the pharmaceutical market. However, pharmaceutical firms seeking to capture the commercial opportunities from the large unmet medical need in the Philippines's oncology space will face challenges, as undiagnosed cancer cases remain high and many advanced treatments still require out of pocket payment.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PHP145.05bn (USD3.28bn) in 2014, rising to PHP150.44bn (USD3.27bn) in 2015; +3.7% in local currency terms and -0.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter .

  • Healthcare: PHP562.90bn (USD12.74bn) in 2014, rising to PHP622.99bn (USD13.54bn) in 2015; +10.7% in local currency terms and +6.4% in US dollar terms. Revised downwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 3.245 3.282 3.271 3.277 3.406 3.597 3.803
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.21 1.15 1.10 1.06 1.00 0.95 0.91
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 27.6 25.8 24.1 22.7 21.6 20.6 19.7
Health spending, USDbn 11.756 12.735 13.544 14.407 15.793 17.493 19.283

Risk/Reward Index

Out of the 19 pharmaceutical markets assessed in Asia Pacific, the Philippines remains in 14th place (scoring 44.9 out of 100), trailing the regional average in most metrics. In Q116, Japan remains the most attractive market in the Asia Pacific region (scoring 73.3 out of 100), followed by South Korea (66.2). Compared with its peers, the Philippines' Risk/Reward Index score is dragged down by industry characteristics such as policy enforcement (policy enforcement score of 2.8 out of 7).

Latest Updates

  • In October 2015, the Philippine Food & Drug Administration issued an advisory to recall specific batches of Nolvadex-D (tamoxifen citrate), a breast cancer drug distributed locally by Astrazeneca Pharmaceuticals Philippines, due to flawed packaging.

  • In September 2015, an oncology cost study in the Philippines (Peso study), revealed that 56% of patients suffered financial catastrophe a year after being diagnosed with cancer, 36% of patients died after a year; and only 8% remained alive without experiencing financial catastrophe.

  • In September 2015, Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) reported a remarkable increase in membership of health insurance coverage to more than 80% of the population, an increase from 38% in 2000, placing the country closer to reaching its target of universal health coverage for all.

  • In August 2015, an IMS Health survey revealed that generic drugs make up nearly 65% of the total pharmaceutical market in the country, with a 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase since 2010 and originator products represent only 35% of the market in the country.

  • The Philippines' Department of Health's (DOH) budget increased 63.4% in 2015 when compared to the 2013 allocation, according to the Department of Finance.

BMI Economic View

We are slightly downgrading our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 5.7%, from 6.0% previously, owing to growing external headwinds. Meanwhile, we are retaining our 2016 real GDP growth forecast at 6.0%, as the Philippines will remain a regional outperformer on the back of domestic resilience. That said, political risks stemming from 2016 general elections might pose downside risks to our constructive stance on the Philippine economy.

BMI Political View

The Philippines' successful economic reforms could be jeopardised if the opposition wins the May 2016 general elections, while a victory by the ruling Liberal Party would ensure continuity of outgoing President Aquino's investor-friendly policies.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
27
Generic Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
30
OTC Drug Market Forecast
31
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019)
33
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2019)
36
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Philippines 2013-2019)
37
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
37
Macroeconomic Forecasts
39
Economic Analysis
39
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2010-2019)
43
Industry Risk Reward Indices
44
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
44
Philippines Risk/Reward Index
50
Rewards
50
Risks
51
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Healthcare Sector
55
Table: Healthcare Resources (Philippines 2009-2014)
59
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Philippines 2009-2014)
59
Table: Healthcare Activity (Philippines 2009-2014)
60
Health Insurance
60
Healthcare Sector Financing
62
Medical Tourism
63
Biotechnology And Research
63
Traditional Medicines
65
Clinical Trials
66
Regulatory Development
67
Table: History Of Food And Drugs Administration
68
Intellectual Property Regime
73
Pricing Regime
77
Table: Medicines Subject To March 31 2010 Government Mediated Access Price
82
Reimbursement Regime
83
International Cooperation
83
Competitive Landscape
85
Pharmaceutical Industry
85
Table: Pharmaceutical Industry Overview
85
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
85
Pharmaceutical Distribution And Retail
87
Table: Overview Of BnB, BNB and P100 Programme
92
Table: Cost Of Generic Drugs In Philippines (PHP)
92
Table: Number Of BnBs And BNBs In Selected Philippine Regions
93
Company Profile
94
GlaxoSmithKline Philippines
94
MediChem Pharmaceuticals
97
Merck & Co
99
Novartis
101
Pacific Pharmaceutical Generics
105
Pascual Laboratories
107
Pfizer
110
Sanofi
114
Unilab
118
Demographic Forecast
121
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)
122
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025)
122
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025)
123
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)
123
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)
124
Glossary
126
Methodology
128
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
128
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
128
Notes On Methodology
129
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
130
Index Overview
131
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
131
Indicator Weightings
132

The Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Philippines Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Philippines, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.