BMI View: We expect robust growth in the power sector in the Philippines, with total generation expected to expand by an average by 4.9 % during ou r 10 -year forecast period to 2024 . With recovery from the 2013 typhoon gathering pace, reasonable domestic economic growth and a range of new projects being announced, overall the future is look ing positive for the Philippine power market.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||73.335||76.881||81.668||86.053||89.795||93.503||96.528|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||65.3||68.7||73.2||77.3||80.9||84.4||87.4|
|Capacity, Net, MW||17,894.0||19,626.7||22,392.1||24,515.4||26,111.7||27,137.4||27,607.6|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Notwithstanding the adverse effects that linger from Typhoon Haiyan that struck the Philippines in late 2013, we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with a range of projects including coal-fired plants and various renewable energy constructions in the pipeline. We forecast total electricity generation growth of 4.8% in 2015, reaching 76.8TWh. Further growth throughout the forecast period means total generation is expected to reach 118TWh by 2024.
Thermal energy will continue to dominate the energy market in the Philippines, accounting for over 70% of total electricity generation in 2015. Healthy growth is expected across coal, natural gas and hydropower. However, we expect to see small declines in oil generation.
The growth in electricity generation means we expect the Philippines will be able to keep up with the expected increases in consumption, which we forecast will grow by about 4.8% a year, although the country is vulnerable to fluctuations and we believe the power situation will remain tenuous.
The Philippines Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Philippines Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Philippines's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).