BMI View: The new government under President Duterte has led to a rising uncertainty for the country ' s non-hydropower renewables market. The government ' s focus on cheap electricity to meet the rising energy consumption levels and address the relatively high electricity prices is expected to prevent new renewable projects to arise amid a fast - growing thermal power project pipeline. While for 2017, we continue to expect stable growth levels, we predict little to no added capacity in the early 2020s , seriously threatening past achievements towards a more sustainable energy generation.
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.804||14.435||14.740||15.100||16.071||16.525||16.604|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||12.219||4.572||2.111||2.444||6.433||2.822||0.478|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||3,218.0||3,514.5||3,584.5||3,767.5||4,080.5||4,286.5||4,286.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||17.3||9.2||2.0||5.1||8.3||5.0||0.0|
Following an estimated capacity growth of 17.3% in 2016, we expect a downward trend, with a capacity growth of 9.2% in 2017, and a non-hydro generation growth of 4.57%, compared to 12.2% in 2016. In our ten-year forecast until 2025, we expect no non-hydro renewable capacity additions from 2022 onwards.
President Duterte announced in November 2016, he decided to sign the 2015 Paris Agreement, which, if ratified, would require greenhouse-gas emission reductions of 70% by the Philippines.
As of June 2016, coal-fired power plants accounted for 33% of the country's power generation capacity, also representing 53% of the capacity in the Philippines' power project pipeline. We therefore see share of coal increasing over our 10-year forecast period - from 43.5% in 2016 to over 50.8% by 2025.
A number of renewable energy and hydroelectric projects were among the USD24bn worth of investment and financing deals signed by China and the Philippines in October 2016. Power projects were also part of the USD19bn worth of investment deals signed by Japan and the Philippines in the same month.
The Philippines Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Philippines. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Philippines, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Philippines, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Philippines Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippines renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Philippines, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.