BMI View: Renewable energy continues to be a key strategy in the government's fight against climate change. As one of the five major investors in geothermal energy, we believe this sector to be largely saturated providing strong investment potentials elsewhere, particularly in the wind and solar segments, backed up by governmental FiT programmes. We therefore expect these two sectors to carry the bulk of non-hydro renewable growth in our forecast up until 2024. Forecast expansion rates are, however, undermined by several obstacles related to an inadequate national grid, a volatile-business environment and a strong market dynamic for cheaper coal power paired with high electricity prices that have led to a lack in political commitment to follow through on ambitious renewables targets .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||12.280||13.372||14.490||14.978||15.478||15.547||16.127|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||11.082||8.897||8.356||3.370||3.339||0.442||3.736|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||2,331.0||2,834.5||3,285.7||3,369.2||3,529.2||3,529.2||3,629.2|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||16.0||21.6||15.9||2.5||4.7||0.0||2.8|
Latest Updates A nd Structural Trends
We forecast non-hydropower renewables electricity generation to grow by 8.4% y-o-y in 2016, and non-hydropower renewables electricity capacity by about 15.9% y-o-y.
The revised Feed-in-Tariffs for Wind and Solar in 2015 have shown significant changes in rates for both sources. While FiT capacity for wind remained constant at 200MW, solar power received a significant raise from the previous 50MW to 500MW.
Wind power forecasts have consequently suffered from limited FiT support and growing conventional energy projects in the pipeline. We expect the sector's capacity to stagnate in 2016 despite strong growth estimated for 2015, as several major projects entered the market.
In July 2015, Philippines-based Gregorio Araneta announced plans to build a 100MW solar farm in Cadiz that will entail an investment of around USD175mn, and is expected to start delivering electricity to the national grid by 2016.
According to the Department of Energy, as of June 2015, the awarded potential capacity for wind power stood at 1.15GW, for solar at 2.2GW, for biomass at 357MW, and for geothermal at 750MW.
The Philippines Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Philippines. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Philippines, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Philippines, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Philippines Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippines renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Philippines, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.