BMI View: The Philippines continues to enjoy robust economic growth and this is helping support steady growth in disposable incomes throughout the country, particularly in urban areas. A rising middle class is now leading to elevated levels of household spending which we believe will result in increasing demand f or non-essential, luxury items. The 24-hour convenience store sector will continue to play a very important role in the development and modernization of mass grocery retail within the country.
We are optimistic that the Philippines will continue to enjoy steady economic growth over our forecast period. Growth during 2014 totalled an estimated 6.09% with growth expected to decline very lightly during 2015 to 5.99%. Nonetheless, we expect household spending to remain resilient due to the country's benign inflation environment as well as growing levels of inward remittances. We are currently forecasting household spending to reach USD222bn, up from USD207 in 2014. The lion's share of the spending will go towards food & non-alcoholic drinks with total spend of USD85bn.
Owing to this favourable economic environment, the Philippines have managed to elevate a large number of its population out of poverty over the past decade and many households are enjoying steady growth in disposable incomes, particularly in urban areas. These developments have started to fuel the rapid changes we are currently witnessing in the county's retail sector. A greater appetite for non-essential purchases has started to attract the attention of a wider range of the world's most famous brands and has also helped create numerous opportunities in the emerging e-commerce market. Nevertheless, the country's rural areas have experienced much less growth with the more traditional retail formats prevailing. Pavement vendors and open-air markets will continue to play the most important role in the rural retail landscape and we foresee less dramatic changes in this area over our...
The Philippines Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Philippines Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Philippines through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.