BMI View: Despite external economic headwinds, we believe the Philippines will sustain its strong GDP growth rate in 2016, driven by robust private consumption. The Philippines households will benefit from rapid wage growth, large and stable inflows of remittances as well as expanding consumer credit market. That said, consumer spending will remain largely concentrated on essential goods and services, as the overall levels of income are still very low, especially in the country's rural areas.
|Headline Household Spending|
|e/f = BMI estimaet/forecast. Source: BMI, National Statistics Office|
Key Trends & Developments
Philippines fashion retailer Golden ABC plans to open 100 new stores in the Philippines and 25 additional outlets across Asia in 2016.
In December 2015, Houston-based jewellery and accessories retailer Charming Charlie opened its first store in the Philippines. The company plans its further expansion in Manila and in Cebu in 2016.
In late 2015, Prada Philippines has re-opened its high profile boutique in the Greenbelt Ayala Center in Makati, Manila.
In November 2015, the country's largest mall operator SM Prime Holdings Inc. opened its new 430,000 square meter shopping mall in Cebu. This was the company's third mall in Cebu and 56th in the Philippines.
In November 2015, Thailand's leading e-commerce retailer Ascend Group launched iTrueMart.ph e-commerce website to serve the Philippine market. The company has ambitions to become the dominant e-commerce player in the Philippines by 2017, according to its chief executive Punnamas Vichitkulwongsa.
The Philippines Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Philippines Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Philippines through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.