BMI View: BMI downgraded its forecast for the Polish consumer electronics market for 2015 to take into account the Country Risk team's bearish view of the Polish zloty performance vis-a-vis the US dollar. The change in the exchange rate will erode the purchasing power and discretionary spending power of household in Poland. From 2016 onwards, we estimate the market to return to growth as a result of income growth and the popularity of smartphones and tablet devices. Furthermore, in terms of electronics production, the domestic market has a number of strong manufacturers who are capable of producing affordable goods for the Polish market. Our core scenario is for continued growth in the consumer electronics segment, as we forecast a CAGR of 3.1% between 2015 and 2019.
Headline Expenditure Projections :
Computer Hardware Sales: USD3.86bn in 2014 to USD3.29bn in 2015, -14.6% y-o-y in US dollar terms. After a contraction in 2015 derived from product cycles and economic conditions, we expect the market to return to a stronger growth trajectory from 2016.
AV Sales: USD2.42bn in 2014 to USD2.09bn in 2015, -13.9% y-o-y in US dollar terms. Big-ticket TV set demand will be hit by zloty depreciation, while further digital camera volume cannibalisation expected in 2015 before stabilisation in the latter years of our forecast.
Handset S ales: USD3.28bn in 2014 to USD3.34bn in 2015, +1.9% y-o-y in US dollar terms. Only segment forecast to grow in US dollar terms in 2015 as deepening smartphone ownership continues to drive value increases.
|Eventual Growth Inevitable|
The Poland Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Poland.
BMI Research's Poland Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Poland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.