BMI View: Our Cou ntry Risk team forecasts z loty appreciation from 2017 to provide significant support to our outlook for Poland's consumer electronics devices market. We expect purchasing power gains to accrue to Polish households throughout the 2017-2020 period. I n the context of a contraction in 2015 that saw deferred spending, this could unlock pent-up demand. The volume growth outlook is soft due to maturity in most product categories, but upgrades and higher average selling prices could benefit vendors throughout the medium term. We forecast total device spending will increase at a CAGR of 5.3% throughout 2016-2020.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD2.3bn in 2016 to USD2.9bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% in US dollar terms. Pent-up demand and zloty appreciation present upside for PC sales, but replacement cannibalization by increasingly powerful smartphones.
AV Sales: USD1.9bn in 2016 to USD2.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 5.1%. Smart and Ultra-HD TV sets improve the outlook for TV set upgrades, but with the digital camera market on a permanently lower trajectory and the bulk of the flat-panel upgrade boom having passed the AV market will not return to previous highs.
Handset S ales: USD3.1bn in 2016 to USD3.7bn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.5%. Handset segment outperformance forecast to end throughout the medium term, as the growth slowdown resulting from smartphone saturation offsets some of the upside from zloty appreciation.
|Foreign Vendors Should Benefit From Stronger Zloty|
|Poland Household Income Breakdown (2016-2020)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, National Sources|
|Economics And Product Cycles Behind Stronger Growth Outlook|
|Consumer Electronics Devices Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The Poland Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Poland.
BMI Research's Poland Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Poland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.