Poland Freight Transport Report

Published 12 August 2015

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Poland Freight Transport Report

BMI View: 2015 will see expansion across all the main Polish freight transport modes. This will reflect the gathering pace of the economic recovery, led by the consumer sector as well as expansion of foreign trade. The fastest cargo volume growth will be experienced in road haulage, followed by airfreight, w i th rail freight bringing up the rear, but s till achieving g r owth of over 3 %. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe.

As BMI has been expecting, the Polish economy is now being driven forward by a recovery in domestic demand supported by growing exports, as the German supply chain receives a boost from a weak euro and low oil prices. There are some potential problems on the horizon, but we think they are not serious enough to alter a generally positive picture. One is a strengthening Swiss Franc, which could hold back Polish household spending, since nearly 40% of Polish mortgages are held in Swiss Francs. The stronger Swiss Franc could mean higher mortgage repayments by Polish families, limiting their spending in other areas. But this may be offset by lower Swiss interest rates. A second problem is posed by lower exports to Russia and the Ukraine, caused by a combination of economic and political problems in those markets. But this too may be offset by export gains elsewhere.

The dominant road freight sector will see the fastest growth this year, supported by the general acceleration in economic activity and in particular by the strength of domestic household consumption. The Polish consumer will be in broadly confident mood and much of his or her purchases will be delivered by road. While there could be some short-term disruption to the trucking industry due to a disagreement with Germany over minimum wage rates, the medium and longer term outlook is broadly positive with rising living standards driving freight demand.

More...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Trade Forecast
15
Table: Trade Overview (Poland 2012-2019)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Poland 2012-2019)
17
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013)
18
Table: Main Export Partners
19
Road Freight Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight (Poland 2012-2019)
22
Rail Freight Forecast
23
Table: Rail Freight (Poland 2012-2019)
24
Air Freight Forecast
26
Table: Air Freight (Poland 2012-2019)
28
Market Overview
29
Company Profile
32
PKP Cargo
32
DB Schenker Rail Polska
35
CTL Logistics
37
LOT Cargo
39
Political Outlook
41
Domestic Politics
41
What If Duda Wins The Runoff On May 26-
42
Table: Poland - Political Overview Table
43
Long-Term Political Outlook
44
Oil Price Outlook
52
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
52
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
52
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
53
Macroeconomic Forecasts
55
Economic Analysis
55
Real GDP By Expenditure Components
55
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
58
Demographic Forecast
59
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
60
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
60
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
61
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
61
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
62
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Sources
67

The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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