BMI View: 2015 will see expansion across all the main Polish freight transport modes. This will reflect the gathering pace of the economic recovery, led by the consumer sector as well as expansion of foreign trade. The fastest cargo volume growth will be experienced in road haulage, followed by airfreight, w i th rail freight bringing up the rear, but s till achieving g r owth of over 2%. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe.
As BMI has been expecting, the Polish economy is now being driven forward by a recovery in domestic demand supported by growing exports, as the German supply chain receives a boost from a weak euro and low oil prices. There are some potential problems on the horizon, but we think they are not serious enough to alter a generally positive picture. One is a strengthening Swiss Franc, which could hold back Polish household spending, since nearly 40% of Polish mortgages are held in Swiss Francs. The stronger Swiss Franc could mean higher mortgage repayments by Polish families, limiting their spending in other areas. But this may be offset by lower Swiss interest rates. A second problem is posed by lower exports to Russia and the Ukraine, caused by a combination of economic and political problems in those markets. But this too may be offset by export gains elsewhere. The net result is that we have increased our GDP growth forecast to 3.5% this year (up from 3.2% previously). We expect growth of 3.7% in 2016.
The dominant road freight sector will see the fastest growth this year, supported by the general acceleration in economic activity and in particular by the strength of domestic household consumption. The Polish consumer will be in broadly confident mood and much of his or her purchases will be delivered by road. While there could be some short term disruption to the trucking industry due to a disagreement with Germany...
The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.