BMI View: Our forecasts for growth in all freight modes in 2016 go in line with 2015 estimates reflecting economic recovery in Poland and major European trading partners. Air freight cargo will see the fastest growth although in terms of tonnage carried, while air freight remains negligible as more than 84% of freight transported on road. Important investment in both road and rail network upgrades will mean increased capacities to accommodate improved domestic demand and imports and growing exports due to bett er performing economies in the e urozone. Over the medium term this trend will be sustained with total trade growth in Poland projected to average 5.0% in the 201 7 -2019 period.
Poland has achieved positive GDP growth rates throughout the recent economic depression, unlike many other European countries, and inflation rates have remained low, helping domestic demand to increase and boost import volumes. Wage levels have not been as stable as other economic indicators, with varying growth between business sectors restraining great expansion in consumer demand. Whole economy (non primary) annual wage growth in 2016 is projected at 1.2%, with unemployment forecast at 9 .0% - only marginally lower from 2015 estimates of 9.5%. The real GDP growth estimate for 2015 is 3.4%, anticipated to rise to 3.9% in 2016, supporting our outlook that the trend of growing import volumes driven by consumer demand will continue in the short term. On the other side of trade, exports will increase as significant importers of Polish goods - Germany, the United Kingdom, Czech Republic, France and Russia - are all expected to achieve an increase in imports in 2016. Real GDP growth in 2016 is anticipated at 3.9% and for the eurozone in total 1.7%.
Road will remain the leading transport mode for freight in Poland and will have 84.8% of the market share in 2016 supported by enhanced network connections and growing demand for consumer goods. Rail, with a market share of 14.8% in 2016, is the second most used mode in terms of tonnage carried with a slowdown in heavy industries a restraint nevertheless continued investment in upgrading rail network connectivity within Poland and internationally provides a positive outlook for this freight mode. Air freight will remain the smallest mode but will be used to serve the growing demand for consumer electronics and the pharmaceuticals market.
Railway Investment Programme Approved: In September 2015, Poland's Council of Minsters approved a EUR16bn investment on upgrading the country's rail network. Completion of all work is expected by 2023 with improvements benefiting passenger rail transport as well as the freight industry. Importantly for freight the capacity for rail routes connecting to the ports of Gdansk, Gdynia, Szczecin and Swinoujscie will be increased as part of the investment.
North Sea-Baltic Corridor Starts Operations: The first phase of the rail freight corridor to connect North Sea ports with Poland launched in November 2015. The first section of the project, partly funded by the European Union, aims to increase the use of rail freight and includes more than 6,000km of railway lines and runs through six different countries.
LOT Cargo Agreement with JAL Cargo: The freight operator of Poland's flag carrier airline is now cooperating with JAL Cargo in freight transport between Warsaw and Tokyo. The partnership includes JAL selling cargo space on LOT's Dreamliners and will be in effect from January 2016.
Key BMI Forecasts
We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 4.2% y-o-y in 2016 to reach 1.484bn tonnes. 2015 growth estimated at 9.6%.
We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 2.7% y-o-y in 2016 to reach 259mn tonnes. 2015 growth estimated at 10.8%.
We forecast total air freight volumes will rise by 5.0% y-o-y in 2016 to reach 89,180 tonnes. 2015 growth estimated at 4.5%.
The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.