Poland Freight Transport Report

Published 10 February 2015

  • 68 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Freight Transport Report

Positive Outlook for Freight Transport in Poland

We continue to predict growth for Polish freight transport in 2015. In most modes volumes will edge slightly ahead of the pace of expansion experienced in 2014. This will come on the back of slightly faster GDP and trade growth in the country. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe. Reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links, the port of Gdansk will see gross tonnage growth of 6.1%. Road freight will also do well, with cargo volume up by a healthy 4.8%.

We have edged up our outlook for the Polish economy relative to our last quarterly report, although we remain below consensus. We believe GDP will expand 3.2% in 2015 (3.1% previously) after estimated growth of 3.1% in 2014 (2.8% previously). One of the biggest drivers of growth is government spending ahead of parliamentary elections, expected in October. Before resigning to take a new post in the European Council, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a public spending package and we expect his successor Ewa Kopacz to honour this pledge. Household consumption is also positive although it has struggled to gain momentum. Exports are somewhat more under pressure, particularly as we have reined in our forecasts for Germany, a key Polish export market.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 airfreight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.2% (up from an estimated 4.0% in 2014)

  • 2015 rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.2%, after 1.4% growth estimated for the preceding year

  • 2015 port of Gdansk bulk tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 6.1% (marginally ahead of the 6.0% estimated for 2014)

  • 2015 road freight is forecast to grow by 4.8%, after growth of 4.6% in 2014

  • 2015 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.7% the same as in the preceding year)

  • 2015 total real trade growth will accelerate to 11.9%, up...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Road
16
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
18
Rail
18
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
21
Inland Waterway
21
Table: Poland Transport Network
21
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2010-2017
22
Air Freight
22
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
23
Maritime
24
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
24
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
25
Table: Poland's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
26
Table: Poland's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
26
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Multimodal/Logistics
31
Rail
31
Air
33
Maritime
33
Company Profile
35
PKP Cargo
35
DB Schenker Rail Polska
39
CTL Logistics
42
LOT Cargo
44
Regional Overview
47
Political Outlook
47
Domestic Politics
47
Table: Political Overview
48
Long-Term Political Outlook
49
Global Industry Overview
57
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
57
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
57
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
58
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
60
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
63
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
65
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
65
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
66
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
66
Macroeconomic Forecasts
69
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2009 - 2016
74
Demographic Forecast
75
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
76
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
77
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
78
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
78
Methodology
79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
79
Transport Industry
80
Sources
80

The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc