BMI View: We see Poland as one of the most attractive IT markets in the region over the medium term , based on relatively low IT device and solution penetration, our robust economic outlook and improvements to supporting infrastructure such as network quality and capacity . This will have positive spillover effects, particularly given its overall growth in technology trends towards increased software and services spending. Enterprise and government spending has a stronger outlook over the medium term, in part supported by the distribution of EU funds for ICT and information society-related initiatives. However, we expect growth will be subdued in 2015 compared to 2014 and 2016-2019, as technology cycles and depreciation of the zloty limit the growth rate.
H eadline Expenditure Projections:
Computer Hardware Sales: PLN12.33bn in 2015 to PLN14.11bn in 2019, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% in local currency terms. After a deceleration in 2015 derived from product cycles and economic conditions, we expect the market to return to a stronger growth trajectory from 2016.
Software Sales: PLN5.54bn in 2015 to PLN7.38bn in 2019, CAGR of 6.5% in local currency terms. Enterprise software market will continue to grow as vendors target small and medium enterprises, with security software solutions potentially outperforming as regional security concerns heighten.
IT Services Sales: PLN12.84bn in 2015 to PLN17.60bn in 2019, CAGR of 7.8% in local currency terms. The cloud computing market is expected to drive IT services outperformance 2015-2019 as solution supply, education levels and network infrastructure improve.
Key Trends And Developments : The IT services market in Poland has been impacted by a merger between two French IT service providers, Atos and Bull. As well as both vendors operating in Poland, Bull had previously acquired AMG.net, one of the largest IT services providers in Warsaw, with approximately PLN97mn in revenue in 2013. There had been concerns the acquisition of Bull would result in job cuts in Poland, but Atos Poland announced its aim to achieve revenue growth of 7-10% to reach annual sales of PLN630-650mn in 2015 in June 2015, as well as its intention to hire additional staff. After acquiring Bull, Atos Poland employed a total of around 4,000 people in Poland, but has stated it plans to hire additional staff in 2015 rather than rationalise due to a positive outlook for enterprise IT services spending, reflecting our positive outlook for IT services outperformance 2015-2019. Atos operates in Poland both through Atos Poland and its Global Delivery Centres in Bydgoszcz and Wroclaw, with Atos solutions employed in verticals including telecommunications, financial services, utilities and the public sector.
The tablet market exhibited strong growth in Poland 2012-2014, surpassing volume sales of notebooks to become the largest device category in the PC market. Unlike in Western European markets, where Apple's iPad dominates both in terms of installed base and sales, in Poland the market is more diverse. Browsing traffic data indicate Apple had a narrow lead over Samsung in terms of installed base in November 2014, but that the latter was on course to overtake it in early 2015. Other vendors with strong performance in the tablet market in 2014 included cost-conscious brands such as Lenovo, ASUS and Acer. BMI expects Lenovo and other Android partner vendors will outperform again in 2015, but an additional dynamic worthy of note will be the competition from low-cost notebooks (sub-USD250) after Microsoft's cut to operating system licensing fees on low-end devices in 2014, which could eat into the tablet market.