Poland Petrochemicals Report

Published 14 May 2015

  • 73 pages
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$1,295.00
Poland Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: Although Polish polymers output declined in the first two months of 2015, BMI 's latest Poland Petrochemicals Report remains upbeat about the industry's prospects for the rest of the year. The automotive industry in particular will boost domestic consumption of engineering plastics and synthetic rubbers.

Strong household consumption on the domestic market coupled with a reactivation of export markets should boost polymers consumption in Poland, where there is a high level of backward integration within the manufacturing sector. Polish exporters are tightly integrated into the German manufacturing supply chain, and the weaker euro is helping to support demand globally for German exports. Moreover, the automotive industry, which exports 90% of its output, is set for a recovery with growth of 5% in 2015.

Rising construction should boost consumption of construction-related plastics, such as polypropylene pipes and extruded PVC products. However, the revival - spurred by record low interest rates - will be sluggish and which provides upside risk to our polymers outlook, benefitting PVC and extruded products. However, the results from the local statistics office show that there is still some way to go to recovery and BMI also ebbs on the cautious side. As such, construction will not be a major driver of petrochemicals growth.

  • While refining margins have been helped by the fall in the price of oil, in 2015 changes in oil prices should have a smaller impact due to a temporary stabilisation of oil prices. This will have an effect on naphtha, although the competitiveness of Polish naphtha cracking for ethylene and propylene petrochemicals feedstock remains better than it has for years.

  • In 2014 Poland had olefins of 760,000tpa ethylene, 475,000tpa propylene and 60,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities include 320,000tpa high-density polyethylene (HDPE), 170,000tpa low-density polyethylene (LDPE), 400,000tpa PP, 550,000tpa PVC, 90,000tpa polystyrene (PS)...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2019 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Analysis
16
Real GDP By Expenditure
17
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
25
Poland Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
25
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Capacity Expansions
30
PKN Orlen's Strategy, 2014-2017
32
Upstream
32
Mergers And Acquisitions
33
Company Profile
35
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen)
35
Anwil
39
Grupa Lotos
41
Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2014 (PLNmn)
44
Regional Overview
45
Europe Overview
45
Feedstock competitiveness
45
Trouble In The East
47
Global Industry Overview
52
Project Cancellation: the Impact of US Expansion and Low Oil Prices
52
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
54
Medium-term outlook
55
China versus the US: feedstock wars
56
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
60
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
60
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
61
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
66
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
68
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
71
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
73

The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Poland Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc