Polish polymer output growth diminished in Q116 alongside declining petrochemicals margins, amid increased oil price volatility. However, the outlook for the rest of the year is positive, with exports set to surge as Germany's economy picks up and Polish domestic demand strengthens.
With production well under nameplate capacity, Poland has plenty of potential for high rates of growth, even without further capacity expansion. In Q116, Poland's polymer sector witnessed an overall positive performance, with polyethylene output up 1.2% y-o-y to 97,900 tonnes and polypropylene up 4.8% to 25,500 tonnes, although PVC was down 11.2% to 72,500 tonnes. However, growth rates were slower than the level achieved in 2015, indicating that the industry was facing slower domestic demand and continued to be operating well below its full potential.
The Polish petrochemicals industry continues to draw investment and is planning for expansion. The focus will be the plans of Polish refiners Grupa Lotos and Grupa Azoty, which are considering building a 1mn tpa petrochemicals complex in Gdansk. The complex will either be centred on an ethylene cracker or an aromatics extraction plant and would be the biggest petrochemicals investment in Poland for many years. However, it is unlikely that the complex will come onstream over the forecast period, and much will depend on the direction of feedstock costs. Until there is firm confirmation of the plans, BMI will exclude this project from the forecasts.
In 2015, Poland had olefins of 760,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene, 475,000tpa propylene and 60,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities include 320,000tpa high-density polyethylene, 170,000tpa low density polyethylene, 400,000tpa polypropylene, 550,000tpa polyvinyl chloride, 90,000tpa polystyrene and 120,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate. In the fertiliser segment, it had capacities of 1.4mn tpa in both ammonia and urea.
The privatisation of chemicals company Ciech is now the subject of an anti-corruption investigation, and in April 2016 investigators raided its offices and those of its majority owner Kulczyk Holding. The new government claims the price at which Ciech was sold was too low, given that it was profitable. Ciech's market value more than doubled in 2015, but declined 25% in Q116.
Poland's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index fell this quarter by 0.5 points to 58.7 points. This is a result of a decline in its Market Risk score as petrochemicals output growth slows and investigations are begun into corruption into Ciech. However, the country remains in a strong position regionally and, outside Russia, has the best prospects for growth in basic polymers as well as diversification of its slate of value added products.
The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Poland Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
- Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global & Regional Market Overview
Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.
Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:
Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene
Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.
The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.