Poland Petrochemicals Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the petrochemicals.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Poland Petrochemicals Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

Polish polymer output growth was in double figures in 2015 as the automotive industry rebounded and exports improved. There is plenty of capacity available for similar rates of growth over the near term, but with insufficient local hydrocarbon resources BMI doubts there is a basis for further capacity investment.

In 2015, ethylene production was up 15.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 545,000 tonnes, polyethylene output was up 11.5% to 376,000 tonnes, polypropylene increased 10.5% to 245,000 tonnes and polyvinyl chloride rose 16.7% to 321,000 tonnes. However, there is plenty of room for growth even within current capacities. In 2015, Poland had olefins of 760,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene, 475,000tpa propylene and 60,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities include 320,000tpa high-density polyethylene, 170,000tpa low density polyethylene, 400,000tpa polypropylene, 550,000tpa polyvinyl chloride, 90,000tpa polystyrene and 120,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate. In the fertiliser segment, it had capacities of 1.4mn tpa in both ammonia and urea.

The Polish petrochemicals industry continues to draw investment and is planning for expansion. The focus will be the plans of Polish refiners Grupa Lotos and Grupa Azoty, which are considering building a 1mn tpa petrochemicals complex in Gdansk. The complex will either be centred on an ethylene cracker or an aromatics extraction plant and would be the biggest petrochemicals investment in Poland for many years. However, it is unlikely that the complex will come onstream over the forecast period and much will depend on the direction of feedstock costs. Until there is firm confirmation of the plans, BMI will exclude this project from the forecasts.

  • Polish petrochemicals producer PKN Orlen's annual sales at targeted at 900,000 tonnes in 2017, while sales volumes from the company's new purified terephthalic acid plant should reach 600,000 tonnes in 2017. Olefins production volumes should rise 7% in the coming five-year period compared with the previous one. Orlen is also investing in upstream shale gas exploration in Poland as well as making acquisitions abroad.

  • Poland's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) fell slightly this quarter by 0.1 point to 59.2 points as a result of a modest decline in its country risk score. However, the country remains in a strong position regionally, pulling it further ahead of Hungary and remaining the leader of the Central and Eastern Europe states.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2020 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
How Will Law And Justice's Government Affect The Macro Outlook-
18
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
20
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
22
Industry Risk/Reward Index
23
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
23
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
26
Poland Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
27
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Upstream
32
Capacity Expansions
33
PKN Orlen's Strategy, 2014-2017
35
Company Profile
36
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen)
36
Anwil
41
Grupa Lotos
43
Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2014 (PLNmn)
46
Regional Overview
47
Table: Europe Plant Turnarounds
51
Global Industry Overview
59
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices
69
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2014-2019)
69
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2020-2025)
70
Demographic Forecast
72
Demographic Outlook
72
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
73
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
73
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
75
Glossary
77
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
77
Methodology
78
Industry Forecast Methodology
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
80
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
82

The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Poland Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.