Poland Petrochemicals Report

Published 24 August 2015

  • 73 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Poland Petrochemicals Report

The Polish petrochemicals industry is going from strength to strength with a strong trajectory in the context of industrial growth. Polymer growth was in double digits as key market segments, such as the automotive and construction industries, posted solid performances.

In H115, polyethylene, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) grew by 10.4%, 13.9% and 14.6% y-o-y respectively. This came on the back of the robust recovery in domestic demand, although there are strong upside risks to these forecasts, with BMI upgrading GDP growth forecasts to 3.5% for 2015 and 3.9% for 2016. In terms of key market segments, we forecast vehicle output to expand 15.3% in 2015 followed by average annual expansions of 4.4% between 2016 and 2019. Meanwhile, construction is being supported by record low interest rates which provides upside risk to our polymers outlook, benefitting PVC and extruded products.

Strong growth in consumption should provide the basis for domestic capacity growth. Polish refiners Grupa Lotos and Grupa Azoty have proposed a 1mn tonnes per annum (tpa) petrochemicals complex in Gdansk, based either on an ethylene cracker or an aromatics extraction plant. If it is constructed, it will be the biggest petrochemicals investment in Europe, apart from Rusia, for many years, although it is unlikely to come onstream before 2019. Key to the success of the plant will be low cost feedstock, which would require sustained low naphtha costs, which themselves depend on low crude prices.

  • In 2014, Poland had olefins of 760,000tpa ethylene, 475,000tpa propylene and 60,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities include 320,000tpa high-density polyethylene, 170,000tpa low-density polyethylene, 400,000tpa PP, 550,000tpa PVC, 90,000tpa polystyrene and 120,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate. In the fertiliser segment, it had capacities of 1.4mn tpa in both ammonia and urea.

  • Polish petrochemicals producer PKN Orlen's annual sales should reach 900,000 tonnes in 2017, while sales...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2019 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Analysis
16
Real GDP By Expenditure
17
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
25
Poland Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
25
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Capacity Expansions
30
PKN Orlen's Strategy, 2014-2017
32
Upstream
32
Mergers And Acquisitions
33
Company Profile
35
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen)
35
Anwil
39
Grupa Lotos
41
Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2014 (PLNmn)
44
Regional Overview
45
Europe Overview
45
Feedstock competitiveness
45
Trouble In The East
47
Global Industry Overview
52
Project Cancellation: the Impact of US Expansion and Low Oil Prices
52
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
54
Medium-term outlook
55
China versus the US: feedstock wars
56
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
60
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
60
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
61
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
66
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
68
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
71
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
73

The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Poland Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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