Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 04 August 2015

  • 110 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: A positive economic outlook and strong pharmacy sales data for Poland in the first quarter of the year reaffirms our outlook for a pickup in pharmaceutical sales growth in 2015. With the National Health Fund expanding its reimbursement expenditure and Polish consumer confidence rising, we see Poland's pharmaceutical market as being one of the most promising within the Central and Eastern Europe region.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PLN32.04bn (USD10.15bn) in 2014 to PLN33.39bn (USD8.91bn) in 2015; +4.2% in local currency terms and -12.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: PLN111.52bn (USD35.35bn) in 2014 to PLN115.73bn (USD30.90bn) in 2015; +3.8% in local currency terms and -12.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter .

Risk/Reward Index

Poland's Q415 RRI score of 61.5 out of 100 remains unchanged from last quarter. The Country is ranked the 2nd the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe, just behind the Czech Republic (63.2).

Key Trends And Developments

July

US-based Epirus Biopharmaceuticals and Polish generics firm Polpharma have entered a commercialisation deal for several biosimilar products. Polpharma has recently secured a EUR45mn (USD49mn) loan from the European Investment Bank in a bid to support biosimilar development and improve access to medicines across Europe. Under the deal, Polpharma will spend nearly USD30mn on clinical development costs and costs associated with the launch of biosimilar products in selected countries in the EU, the Middle-East, CIS, Russia and Turkey.

The Polish government approved the Public Health Act during a cabinet meeting on July 7, reports PMR. The legislation, which was prepared by the health ministry, will now be submitted to the lower house of the Polish parliament, Sejm. The ministry expects the legislation to be presented before the end of the parliament, which is in the autumn, and come into...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Poland 2013-2019)
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Real GDP By Expenditure Components
31
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
35
Poland Risk/Reward Index
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Industry Trends And Developments
44
Epidemiology
44
Healthcare Sector
45
Hospital Infrastructure
47
Ambulatory Infrastructure
47
Table: Civilian Outpatient Facilities, 2002-2009
48
Hospital Privatisation
48
Health Insurance
49
Table: Healthcare Resources (Poland 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Poland 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Poland 2009-2014)
53
Distribution Channels
53
Table: Cefarm's Financial Indicators, 2007-2010 (PLN mn)
54
Research & Development
55
Clinical Trials
56
Medical Devices
57
Regulatory Development
60
Advertising Regulations
61
Other Regulatory Developments
62
Intellectual Property Regime
63
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
65
Reimbursement Regime Changes
70
Competitive Landscape
74
Pharmaceutical Sector
74
Domestic Industry
74
Foreign Industry
75
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
76
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
78
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009
78
Company Profile
79
Polpharma
79
Bioton
82
GlaxoSmithKline
85
Eli Lilly
88
Gedeon Richter
90
Krka
93
Lek/Sandoz
95
Demographic Forecast
98
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
99
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
99
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
100
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
100
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
101
Glossary
103
Methodology
105
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
105
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
105
Notes On Methodology
106
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
107
Index Overview
108
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
108
Indicator Weightings
109

The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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