BMI View: Our long-term outlook for Poland's healthcare system is bright; this will present significant revenue earning opportunities for multinational drugmakers in the years to come. The announced plan to reform the healthcare service will significantly improve access to healthcare, and in particular to high-quality treatments such as for cancer, which will boost innovative medicine sales. However, the country's worsening fiscal outlook may require a reduction in the highly ambitious expansion of the healthcare budget, limiting market potential.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PLN33.39bn (USD8.86bn) in 2015 to PLN34.93bn (USD8.59bn) in 2016; +4.6% in local currency terms and -3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: PLN114.50bn (USD30.38bn) in 2015 to PLN121.36bn (USD29.85bn) in 2016; +6.0% in local currency terms and -1.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||10.150||8.860||8.590||9.000||9.440||9.950||10.890|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.86||1.87||1.90||1.92||1.94||1.95||1.96|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||29.3||29.2||28.8||28.3||28.2||28.0||27.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||34.600||30.380||29.850||31.820||33.540||35.580||39.180|
Poland has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 63.1 out of 100 for Q416, unchanged from last quarter, making it the second most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), just below the Czech Republic (65.6). Poland has the second highest pharmaceutical market expenditure (score of 14.0 out of 20.0) in CEE, behind Russia. The country also benefits from an independent judiciary, with the legal framework improving in recent years and converging towards EU standards. The judicial system still suffers from inefficiency and corruption, although efforts have been made to tackle the latter at both court and enforcement level.
An opinion poll run by the Polish Public Opinion Research Centre (CBOS), published on August 3 2016, revealed that, while two thirds of respondents had a positive opinion on the competence of doctors, just 8% were satisfied with their ability to access specialist medical care, and over three quarters of Poles are dissatisfied with the health service overall.
In August 2016, the Ministry of Health published a new list of reimbursed drugs including medicines for the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer and Parkinson's disease, entering force on September 1 2016.
In July 2016, the Minster of Health announced the polish government's long-awaited healthcare reform plan, a key part of the Law and Justice (PiS) party's election campaign in October 2015.
In June 2016, Minister of Health Konstanty Radziwill reiterated his ambition to increase government healthcare expenditure to 6% of GDP, up from the current 4.5%.
In June 2016, the Polish Association of Medical Tourism published data that showed the market value of medical tourism in the country had doubled since 2011 to a value of EUR340mn and that patients travelling from abroad each spend up to EUR17,000 on medical procedures in private clinics.
BMI Economic View
The Polish government's watered down Swiss franc loan conversion plan has bolstered confidence in the banking system and averted a potentially devastating blow to investor sentiment and the broader economy. This will be a positive tailwind for the Polish zloty and equities in the quarters ahead, and has significantly reduced downside growth risks.
BMI Political View
Poland's confrontation with the European Union over the constitutional court crisis is set to worsen in the months ahead. Despite endangering the country's fiscal stability, the populist Law and Justice government will retain strong public support.
The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.