BMI View: The outlook for both Poland ' s pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will be driven by government reforms targeting greater access to healthcare. Over the short term, changes to reimbursement and co - payment exemptions will boost expenditure, while the change to a tax-based healthcare system will drive long-term growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PLN33.39bn (USD8.86bn) in 2015 to PLN34.79bn (USD8.56bn) in 2016; +4.2% in local currency terms and -3.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: PLN114.50bn (USD30.38bn) in 2015 to PLN121.36bn (USD29.85bn) in 2016; +6.0% in local currency terms and -1.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: World Health Organization (WHO, Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||10.153||8.857||8.559||8.951||9.287||9.765||10.683|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.86||1.87||1.91||1.91||1.91||1.91||1.92|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||29.3||29.2||28.7||28.1||27.7||27.4||27.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||34.600||30.375||29.853||31.817||33.538||35.583||39.184|
In BMI's Q117 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Poland has fallen from second to third out of the 21 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix, with a significantly reduced score of 60.3 compared with the previous quarter (63.1). This decrease is a result of BMI's Country Risk team forecasting strength of the zloty against the dollar, resulting in a significantly lower Sector Value Growth metric score (measured in USD). Poland's score is bolstered by high market expenditure and an attractive demographic profile; however, the country's regulatory environment poses significant risks.
In September 2016, the government passed a bill allowing free access to primary healthcare for all citizens, regardless of their insurance status.
In August 2016, the government announced its plan for healthcare reform centred on the liquidation of the NFZ and the implementation of a tax-based system.
In September 2016, the Ministry of Health announced an alteration to its reimbursement scheme to enable greater access to high-cost medicines. This will be implemented on January 1 2017.
In August 2016, Poland's Ministry of Health announced further detailed information on the proposal for free medicines for people over the age of 75.
BMI Economic View
Although real GDP growth will slow in 2017 relative to 2015-2016, Poland's economy remains in good shape, with growth primarily driven by domestic consumption. Strong wage growth and a tight labour market will prop up household consumption, although potential growth will be constrained by investor-hostile government policies and Brexit-infused uncertainty.
BMI Political View
Poland's confrontation with the European Union over the constitutional court crisis is set to worsen in the months ahead. Despite endangering the country's fiscal stability, the populist Law and Justice government will retain strong public support.
The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.