BMI View: Poland will remain one of the most attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets in the CEE region. Strong economic growth and the introduction of a tax-funded healthcare system will support strong market growth. Opportunities for innovative drugmakers will be significant, with an ageing population and increasing accessibility for advanced treatment. However, the potential for the formation of a Visegrad joint medicine agreement with the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia pose both upside and downside risks to innovative drugmakers should it go ahead, as joint purchasing initiatives tend to bring pricing pressures which would boost sales whilst reducing profit margins.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PLN33.39bn (USD8.85bn) in 2015 to PLN34.90bn (USD8.58bn) in 2016; +4.5% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: PLN114.50bn (USD30.37bn) in 2015 to PLN120.79bn (USD29.71bn) in 2016; +5.5% in local currency terms and -2.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||10.150||8.850||8.580||9.370||10.630||11.920||13.050|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.86||1.87||1.88||1.87||1.89||1.89||1.91|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||29.3||29.2||28.9||28.5||28.3||28.1||28.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||34.600||30.370||29.710||32.820||37.550||42.380||46.660|
Poland has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 63.1 out of 100 for Q316, slightly lower than last quarter's score of 63.9, making it the second most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), just below the Czech Republic (65.6). Poland has the second highest pharmaceutical market expenditure (score of 14.0 out of 20.0) in CEE, behind Russia. The country also benefits from an independent judiciary, with the legal framework improving in recent years and converging towards EU standards. The judicial system still suffers from inefficiency and corruption, although efforts have been made to tackle the latter at both court and enforcement level.
In May 2016, President Anfrzej Duda signed a bill to provide Polish pensioners over the age of 75 with free medicines, medical devices and certain nutritional foods.
In May 2016, the nurses at The Children's Memorial Health Instituted in Warsaw, one of Poland's largest specialist paediatric hospitals, went on strike over wages, forcing the hospital to cease admitting new patients and send others under care to nearby facilities.
The Polish Ministry of Health plans to introduce new legislations which would requires a pharmacy to be at least 51% owned by a qualified pharmacist, in an effort to give more market control to pharmacies and improve regulation of the sector.
In April 2016, representatives of the Ministries of Health for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia met and discussed the potential to collectively purchase medicines for rare diseases under a Visegrad joint medicines procurement agreement.
BMI Economic View
Household consumption and fixed investment will continue be the joint engines for economic growth in the years ahead. Mounting political uncertainty due to right-wing Law and Justice party policies will not significantly undermine Poland's strong macroeconomic fundamentals. We forecast its economy to expand by 3.7% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017.
BMI Political View
The ruling Law and Justice party will tighten its grip on Poland's institutions, after disabling the constitutional court and passing far-reaching security laws. We expect a prolonged clash with the European Union to increase investor uncertainty and hurt economic growth.
The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.