BMI View: The Polish healthcare system faces significant reform under the newly elected Law and Justice party. We believe that a transition from Poland's current insurance based healthcare system to a tax financed healthcare system will be broadly positive for all stakeholders, including the pharmaceutical sector, as it will provide a more stable and larger source of revenue. Reimbursement criteria will also be loosened for innovative drugs, which in turn will be beneficial for multinational drugmakers operating in Poland.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PLN32.04bn (USD10.15bn) in 2014 to PLN33.39bn (USD8.91bn) in 2015; +4.2% in local currency terms and -12.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: PLN111.53bn (USD35.35bn) in 2014 to PLN115.81bn (USD30.92bn) in 2015; +3.8% in local currency terms and -12.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||9.767||10.153||8.914||9.092||10.148||11.266||12.355|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.86||1.85||1.87||1.85||1.82||1.80||1.77|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||28.3||28.7||28.8||28.5||28.1||27.7||27.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||34.496||35.349||30.920||31.858||36.079||40.634||45.189|
Poland's Q116 RRI score of 61.5 out of 100 remains unchanged from last quarter. The Country is ranked the 2nd the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe, just behind the Czech Republic (63.2). Poland benefits from an independent judiciary but it still suffers from inefficiency and corruption. While the country is taking steps towards full harmonisation with EU regulations, various aspects of commercialising products in Poland remain challenging, particularly for innovative multinationals. However, increasing consumer income and the growth of the private market are positive indicators over the longer term.
A march was held in the capital city of Warsaw in October 2015 to highlight the crucial shortcomings in the country's healthcare system targeting psychiatric conditions. According to statistics, up to 15% of the Polish population may be suffering from depression.
The Law and Justice party won the October 2015 elections. The party called for the scrapping of the National Health Fund and Poland's current insurance-based model of healthcare financing, instead seeking to transition the country towards a tax financed healthcare system.
In October 2015, The Confederation of Polish Employers and the Infarma Employers' Union of Innovative Pharmaceutical Companies launched an initiative targeting the increasing number of vaccine sceptics in Poland. More than 12,000 kids in the country did not undergo vaccinations in 2014, marking a 40% y-o-y drop in inoculations.
In August 2015, Poland's health ministry announced that it will stop providing prescription status to homeopathic drugs in response to medical professional groups demanding a reduction in medical recommendations that have no scientific basis.
BMI Economic View
Oil prices will continue to exert a deflationary drag on headline CPI until well into next year. While the pace of decline in consumer price growth might slow briefly across Q415, inflation will remain substantially below target for the next six months. No changes in monetary policy are expected until the new MPC is appointed in February 2016.
BMI Political View
Poland's last parliamentary election in October 2011 delivered a victory for the incumbent Civic Platform-Polish People's Party governing coalition, representing the first time a sitting government had been re-elected since the end of communist control in 1989. The result also sounded the death knell for Poland's political centre-left, with the Democratic Left Alliance falling to fifth place.
The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.