Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 06 May 2015

  • 114 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The National Health Fund and the Agency for Health Technology Assessment will continue to impede the reimbursement of innovative drugs in Poland over the short term, given their current focus on budgetary restraint. Over the longer term, we expect these budgetary restrictions to ease and healthcare spending to accelerate, given our positive economic outlook for Poland. In light of our expectations, Poland will become a more attractive market to multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PLN32.04bn (USD10.15bn) in 2014 to PLN33.39bn (USD8.91bn) in 2015; +4.2% in local currency terms and -12.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downward from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: PLN111.52bn (USD35.35bn) in 2014 to PLN115.27bn (USD30.78bn) in 2015; +3.4% in local currency terms and -12.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downward from last quarter due to the release of confirmed WHO data.

Risk/Reward Index

Poland has a RRI score of 61.5 out of 100, making it 2nd the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe, just behind the Czech Republic (63.2).

Key Trends And Developments

April 2015

The Polish Pharmaceutical Chamber (NIA) has initiated a protest petition against an alleged rationing of reimbursed drugs by big pharmaceutical firms. The petition has raised concerns over the inactivity of the country's health minister and the government at large, claiming that there has been a lack of decisive action ensuring equitable and uninterrupted access to health and life-saving drugs for all pharmacies and their patients. The petition also claims that the government's inaction has resulted in big pharmaceutical companies effectively controlling the shape and manner of pharmaceutical distribution in the country. The business manoeuvrings undertaken by the firms - and tolerated by the government - has limited the supply of medicines and has led to discrimination against pharmacies and their patients, the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Poland 2013-2019)
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Real GDP By Expenditure
32
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
37
Poland Risk/Reward Index
43
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Healthcare Sector
47
Hospital Infrastructure
48
Ambulatory Infrastructure
49
Table: Civilian Outpatient Facilities, 2002-2009
49
Hospital Privatisation
50
Health Insurance
51
Table: Healthcare Resources (Poland 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Poland 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Poland 2009-2014)
55
Distribution Channels
55
Table: Cefarm's Financial Indicators, 2007-2010 (PLN mn)
56
Research & Development
57
Clinical Trials
58
Medical Devices
60
Regulatory Development
62
Advertising Regulations
63
Other Regulatory Developments
64
Intellectual Property Regime
65
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
67
Reimbursement Regime Changes
73
Competitive Landscape
76
Pharmaceutical Sector
76
Domestic Industry
76
Foreign Industry
78
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
80
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
82
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009
82
Company Profile
83
Polpharma
83
Bioton
86
GlaxoSmithKline
89
Eli Lilly
92
Gedeon Richter
94
Krka
97
Lek/Sandoz
99
Demographic Forecast
102
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
103
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
103
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
104
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
104
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
105
Glossary
107
Methodology
109
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
109
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
109
Notes On Methodology
110
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
111
Index Overview
112
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
112
Indicator Weightings
113

The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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