Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 February 2015

  • 111 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The Polish pharmaceutical market is heavily dependent on public healthcare spending; any negative economic developments will have an impact on the market in the short term. Over the past five years, Poland's economic outperformance has been vital to maintaining positive growth for the private and public healthcare sectors. While Poland's economy may continue to outperform in terms of growth, we believe that overall healthcare spending will remain muted over the coming year given the bleak macroeconomic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe. We highlight this as an ongoing risk to our projections, but maintain our current outlook for this sector's growth over 2015.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PLN33.68bn (USD10.75bn) in 2014 to PLN35.73bn (USD10.68bn) in 2015; +6.1% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: PLN115.15bn (USD36.74bn) in 2014 to PLN120.75bn (USD36.11bn) in 2015; +4.9% in local currency terms and -1.7% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Poland has a RRI score of 61.5 out of 100, making it 2nd the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe, overtaken by the Czech Republic (63.2).

Key Trends And Developments

December 2014

The board of Poland-based healthcare group EMC Instytut Medyczny is discussing whether to acquire or operate several local government hospitals, and expects to finalise at least one to three deals in 2015, reports local newspaper Puls Biznesu, citing CEO Agnieszka Szpara. EMC is mainly targeting district hospitals, as it has expertise in managing such facilities, and also seeks to acquire complementary services in a given area. The group plans to invest between PLN5-PLN6mn (USD1.49-USD1.79mn) to modernise its hospital in Kwidzyn, Poland, which was acquired in 2013. The company has invested more than PLN100mn (USD29.86mn) in its acquired hospitals' infrastructure over the last decade and has similar expenditure plans for the next ten years.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2018)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Poland 2012-2018)
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Poland - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Poland Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Healthcare Sector
48
Hospital Infrastructure
50
Ambulatory Infrastructure
51
Table: Civilian Outpatient Facilities, 2002-2009
51
Hospital Privatisation
51
Health Insurance
53
Distribution Channels
56
Table: Cefarm's Financial Indicators, 2007-2010 (PLN mn)
58
Research & Development
59
Clinical Trials
59
Medical Devices
62
Regulatory Development
64
Advertising Regulations
65
Other Regulatory Developments
66
Intellectual Property Regime
67
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
69
Reimbursement Regime Changes
74
Competitive Landscape
78
Pharmaceutical Sector
78
Domestic Industry
78
Foreign Industry
81
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
83
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
86
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009
86
Company Profile
87
Polpharma
87
Bioton
90
GlaxoSmithKline
93
Eli Lilly
96
Gedeon Richter
98
Krka
101
Lek/Sandoz
103
Demographic Forecast
106
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
109
Glossary
110
Methodology
112
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Notes On Methodology
113
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
114
Ratings Overview
115
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
115
Indicator Weightings
116

The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc