Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Poland will remain one of the most attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets in the CEE region. Strong economic growth and the introduction of a tax-funded healthcare system will support strong market growth. Opportunities for innovative drugmakers will be significant, with an ageing population and increasing accessibility for advanced treatment. However, the potential for the formation of a Visegrad joint medicine agreement with the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia pose both upside and downside risks to innovative drugmakers should it go ahead, as joint purchasing initiatives tend to bring pricing pressures which would boost sales whilst reducing profit margins.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PLN33.39bn (USD8.85bn) in 2015 to PLN34.90bn (USD8.58bn) in 2016; +4.5% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: PLN114.50bn (USD30.37bn) in 2015 to PLN120.79bn (USD29.71bn) in 2016; +5.5% in local currency terms and -2.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 10.150 8.850 8.580 9.370 10.630 11.920 13.050
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.87 1.89 1.89 1.91
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0
Health spending, USDbn 34.600 30.370 29.710 32.820 37.550 42.380 46.660

Risk/Reward Index

Poland has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 63.1 out of 100 for Q316, slightly lower than last quarter's score of 63.9, making it the second most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), just below the Czech Republic (65.6). Poland has the second highest pharmaceutical market expenditure (score of 14.0 out of 20.0) in CEE, behind Russia. The country also benefits from an independent judiciary, with the legal framework improving in recent years and converging towards EU standards. The judicial system still suffers from inefficiency and corruption, although efforts have been made to tackle the latter at both court and enforcement level.

Latest Updates

  • In May 2016, President Anfrzej Duda signed a bill to provide Polish pensioners over the age of 75 with free medicines, medical devices and certain nutritional foods.

  • In May 2016, the nurses at The Children's Memorial Health Instituted in Warsaw, one of Poland's largest specialist paediatric hospitals, went on strike over wages, forcing the hospital to cease admitting new patients and send others under care to nearby facilities.

  • The Polish Ministry of Health plans to introduce new legislations which would requires a pharmacy to be at least 51% owned by a qualified pharmacist, in an effort to give more market control to pharmacies and improve regulation of the sector.

  • In April 2016, representatives of the Ministries of Health for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia met and discussed the potential to collectively purchase medicines for rare diseases under a Visegrad joint medicines procurement agreement.

BMI Economic View

Household consumption and fixed investment will continue be the joint engines for economic growth in the years ahead. Mounting political uncertainty due to right-wing Law and Justice party policies will not significantly undermine Poland's strong macroeconomic fundamentals. We forecast its economy to expand by 3.7% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017.

BMI Political View

The ruling Law and Justice party will tighten its grip on Poland's institutions, after disabling the constitutional court and passing far-reaching security laws. We expect a prolonged clash with the European Union to increase investor uncertainty and hurt economic growth.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
18
Prescription Drug Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
23
Generic Drug Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Poland 2014-2020)
30
Industry Risk Reward Index
31
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
31
Poland Risk/Reward Index
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Regulatory Review
39
Advertising Regulations
40
Other Regulatory Developments
41
Intellectual Property Regime
42
Pricing And Reimbursement
44
Pricing Regime
45
Reimbursement Regime
47
Market Overview
54
Healthcare Sector
55
Table: Civilian Outpatient Facilities, 2002-2009
57
Table: Healthcare Resources (Poland 2010-2015)
58
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Poland 2010-2015)
59
Table: Healthcare Activity (Poland 2010-2015)
59
Research & Development
62
Clinical Trials
62
Epidemiology
64
Competitive Landscape
66
Research-Based Industry
66
Table: Multinational Market Activity
67
Pharmaceutical Distribution
68
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
69
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009
70
Company Profile
71
Bioton
71
Polpharma
73
Demographic Forecast
75
Demographic Outlook
75
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
76
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
76
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
77
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
77
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
78
Glossary
80
Methodology
82
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
82
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
82
Notes On Methodology
83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
84
Index Overview
85
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
85
Indicator Weightings
86

The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.