Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Polish healthcare system faces significant reform under the newly elected Law and Justice party. We believe that a transition from Poland's current insurance based healthcare system to a tax financed healthcare system will be broadly positive for all stakeholders, including the pharmaceutical sector, as it will provide a more stable and larger source of revenue. Reimbursement criteria will also be loosened for innovative drugs, which in turn will be beneficial for multinational drugmakers operating in Poland.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PLN32.04bn (USD10.15bn) in 2014 to PLN33.39bn (USD8.91bn) in 2015; +4.2% in local currency terms and -12.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: PLN111.53bn (USD35.35bn) in 2014 to PLN115.81bn (USD30.92bn) in 2015; +3.8% in local currency terms and -12.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Poland 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 9.767 10.153 8.914 9.092 10.148 11.266 12.355
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.86 1.85 1.87 1.85 1.82 1.80 1.77
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3
Health spending, USDbn 34.496 35.349 30.920 31.858 36.079 40.634 45.189

Risk/Reward Index

Poland's Q116 RRI score of 61.5 out of 100 remains unchanged from last quarter. The Country is ranked the 2nd the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe, just behind the Czech Republic (63.2). Poland benefits from an independent judiciary but it still suffers from inefficiency and corruption. While the country is taking steps towards full harmonisation with EU regulations, various aspects of commercialising products in Poland remain challenging, particularly for innovative multinationals. However, increasing consumer income and the growth of the private market are positive indicators over the longer term.

Latest Updates

  • A march was held in the capital city of Warsaw in October 2015 to highlight the crucial shortcomings in the country's healthcare system targeting psychiatric conditions. According to statistics, up to 15% of the Polish population may be suffering from depression.

  • The Law and Justice party won the October 2015 elections. The party called for the scrapping of the National Health Fund and Poland's current insurance-based model of healthcare financing, instead seeking to transition the country towards a tax financed healthcare system.

  • In October 2015, The Confederation of Polish Employers and the Infarma Employers' Union of Innovative Pharmaceutical Companies launched an initiative targeting the increasing number of vaccine sceptics in Poland. More than 12,000 kids in the country did not undergo vaccinations in 2014, marking a 40% y-o-y drop in inoculations.

  • In August 2015, Poland's health ministry announced that it will stop providing prescription status to homeopathic drugs in response to medical professional groups demanding a reduction in medical recommendations that have no scientific basis.

BMI Economic View

Oil prices will continue to exert a deflationary drag on headline CPI until well into next year. While the pace of decline in consumer price growth might slow briefly across Q415, inflation will remain substantially below target for the next six months. No changes in monetary policy are expected until the new MPC is appointed in February 2016.

BMI Political View

Poland's last parliamentary election in October 2011 delivered a victory for the incumbent Civic Platform-Polish People's Party governing coalition, representing the first time a sitting government had been re-elected since the end of communist control in 1989. The result also sounded the death knell for Poland's political centre-left, with the Democratic Left Alliance falling to fifth place.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Poland 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
12
Healthcare Market Forecast
13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
15
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
15
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
16
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
18
Patented Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2011-2019)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2019)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Poland 2013-2019)
28
Industry Risk Reward Index
29
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2016
29
Poland Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Regulatory Review
38
Advertising Regulations
39
Other Regulatory Developments
40
Intellectual Property Regime
41
Pricing And Reimbursement
43
Pricing Regime
44
Reimbursement Regime
46
Market Overview
52
Healthcare Sector
52
Table: Civilian Outpatient Facilities, 2002-2009
55
Table: Healthcare Resources (Poland 2009-2014)
56
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Poland 2009-2014)
57
Table: Healthcare Activity (Poland 2009-2014)
57
Research & Development
60
Clinical Trials
60
Epidemiology
62
Competitive Landscape
64
Research-Based Industry
64
Table: Multinational Market Activity
65
Pharmaceutical Distribution
67
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
68
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009
69
Company Profile
70
Polpharma
70
Bioton
72
Demographic Forecast
75
Demographic Outlook
75
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
76
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
76
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
77
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
77
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
78
Glossary
80
Methodology
82
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
82
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
82
Notes On Methodology
83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
84
Index Overview
85
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
85
Indicator Weightings
86

The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.