Poland Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

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  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Poland Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: R ecently elected Order and Justice (PiS) government's support for coal-fired generation and proposed punitive requirements for wind power developers will dampen investor interest and ensure the country's continued reliance on the strategically important coal sector for power generation. This will put Poland at odds with the EU over emissions and environmental targets.

Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 153.680 156.820 161.110 164.920 168.790 170.750 172.920
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 143.4 146.4 149.5 153.1 156.8 159.9 163.1
Capacity, Net, MW 37,864.0 39,066.4 40,362.5 41,991.9 43,109.8 43,794.7 44,579.2

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We maintain our view that coal will dominate Poland's power mix, accounting for more than 75% of the total generation throughout our forecast period to 2025.

  • According to reports by Greenpeace, in early 2016 Poland decided to scrap Choczewo as a potential site for the construction of the proposed nuclear power plant.

  • In early March 2016, Polish government presented draft legislation, proposing crippling requirements for wind power developers. We believe these requirements, combined with the new PiS majority government's support for coal-fired generation, will have a detrimental impact on investor confidence in the Polish wind power sector.

  • As such, we downgraded our growth forecast for Poland's non-hydro renewables generation. We now believe non-hydro renewables generation will average 3.4% expansion in the next ten years (down from 4.9%), contributing 18.1% to the total power mix in 2025.

  • In February 2016, Sweden-based Eltel signed two power transmission contracts for reconstruction of high voltage substations with the Polish transmission grid operator PSE. The projects are in the Jasiniec and Joachimow regions and have a total value of approximately EUR25mn.

  • In early 2016, Poland's largest energy utility Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) and GE signed an approximately EUR40mn deal to upgrade generator and steam turbine assets at the Turow power plant. The upgrades are expected to increase the facility's output by 45MW.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Poland Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2015-2020)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2020-2025)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Poland Power Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Questions Remain Over Plans For New Coal
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
26
Consumption
27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
29
Transmission And Distribution
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
31
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index
36
Poland Power Risk/Reward Index
37
Rewards
37
Risks
38
Market Overview
40
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
40
Regulation And Competition
40
Table: Proposed EU 2030 Energy And Climate Targets
41
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Poland Power Projects Database
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Tauron
46
PGE/PSE
48
ENEA
48
Energa
48
RWE/STOEN
49
Electrabel
49
Company Profile
50
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE)
50
Regional Overview
56
CEE Power Regional Overview
56
Glossary
63
Table: Glossary Of Terms
63
Methodology
64
Methodology And Sources
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sources
67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).