Poland Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

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  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Poland Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Poland's power sector will remain dominated by coal-fired generation across the coming decade , as the country's PiS government continues to favour this strategically important sector over gas-fired generation and non-hydro renewables. Recently adopted punitive requirements for wind power development reaffirm our view and will dampen investor interest . As s uch energy polic ies will continue to drive a wedge between Poland and the EU over emissions and environmental targets.

Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data
Generation, Total, TWh 153.680 156.820 161.110 164.920 168.790 170.750 172.920
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 143.4 146.4 149.5 153.1 156.8 159.9 163.1
Capacity, Net, MW 37,864.0 39,066.4 40,362.5 41,991.9 43,109.8 43,794.7 44,579.2

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • While the share of coal-fired generation in the country's total energy mix is expected to downtick from 78.9% in 2015 to around 75.4% in 2025, Poland will remain overwhelmingly dependent on this fuel for power generation.

  • In late June 2016, the Polish President Andrzej Duda signed amendments to the Act on Renewable Energy Sources and Act on Windfarms, which notably reduce state support for the development of renewable energy and impose tight restrictions on new wind power developments.

  • As such, we hold our subdued growth forecast for Poland's non-hydro renewables generation. We now believe non-hydro renewables generation will average 3.4% expansion in the next 10 years, contributing 18.1% to the total power mix in 2025 (up from 15.6% in 2015).

  • We maintain our view that the role of natural gas in Poland's energy generation will remain very limited over the coming decade. Its share in the total power mix will rise from around 2.9% in 2015 to 4.1% in 2025.

  • In June 2016, Poland has welcomed the first commercial LNG shipment to its new Swinoujscie terminal.

  • In July 2016, the CEO of Poland's largest utility PGE said to the national media that the country's plans to build its first nuclear power facility will not be realised at least until 2030.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Poland Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2015-2020)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2020-2025)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Poland Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Questions Remain Over Plans For New Coal
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
24
Consumption
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
27
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
28
Industry Risk/Reward Index
29
Poland Power Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
38
Regulation And Competition
38
Table: Proposed EU 2030 Energy And Climate Targets
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
40
Poland Power Projects Database
41
Competitive Landscape
44
Tauron
45
PGE/PSE
46
ENEA
46
Energa
47
RWE/STOEN
47
Electrabel
47
Company Profile
48
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE)
48
Regional Overview
54
Glossary
61
Table: Glossary Of Terms
61
Methodology
62
Methodology And Sources
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
65
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
67

The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).