Poland Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Poland Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: A PiS victory is the most likely outcome of Poland's parliamentary elections - with the party's populist brand of politics likely to mean it is more vehement than the incumbent Civic Platform in its support for the domestic coal industry. As a consequence, we anticipate an even more fractious relationship with the EU over climate targets and a greater willingness to intervene in the state-controlled utilities sector to support Poland's coal miners, at the expense of minority shareholders.

Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 151.504 153.719 157.426 162.300 168.201 172.789 175.484
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 140.5 143.3 146.3 149.4 153.0 157.0 161.7
Capacity, Net, MW 36,080.1 37,460.6 38,696.2 40,150.4 42,039.0 43,468.8 44,499.9
  • A PiS majority or PiS-led coalition government should advance a more populist brand of politics that will be heavily focused on sustaining the role of cheap, but polluting coal in the domestic electricity generation mix - to ensure retail electricity prices remain low. This policy has also been pursued by Civic Platform, but we expect PiS's position to be more inflexible - exacerbating Warsaw's reputation as an outsider in Europe in terms of its position on climate policy.

  • The incumbent Civic Platform is attempting to restructure Poland's mining industry with the help of Poland's biggest state-backed utilities. Reports indicate PGE, Energa and gas company PGNiG may be involved in plans to rescue Kompania Weglowa, as co-investors in a state investment fund. In October 2015, Tauron's government-controlled supervisory board was even reported to have sacked the CEO, Dariusz Lubera, after his company failed to buy a loss-making mine. We expect the PiS to implement similar plans if it wins the election - with creeping government intervention to hit minority investors in state-controlled utilities.

  • PGE announced in August 2015 it posted a net loss of PLN5.06bn (USD1.34bn) in H115 due to a PLN8.08bn impairment charge on its lignite-fired assets. The reasons for the impairment were largely due to falling wholesale prices and tougher EU climate policies. The announcement - and subsequent postponement of the release of Q215 results - supports our view that Poland will ultimately introduce a capacity remuneration mechanism.

  • Our Oil & Gas team's decision to remove first commercial shale gas production from their forecasts in mid-2015 prompted us to downwardly revise our forecasts for Poland's gas-fired power sector. Gas will account for 3% of the electricity generation mix in 2016 and just 4% in 2024 - with coal to dominate.

  • In October 2015, incumbent Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz was reported to have said that nuclear power is not a priority and indicated she would instead focus on rescuing the coal industry. This aligns with our decision not to include planned nuclear capacity in our 10-year forecasts.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Poland Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2014-2019)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2019-2024)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Poland Power Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
25
Consumption
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
27
Transmission And Distribution
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
CEE Power RRI
30
Poland Power Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
38
Regulation And Competition
38
Table: Proposed EU 2030 Energy And Climate Targets
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
39
Poland Power Projects Database
41
Competitive Landscape
44
Tauron
45
PGE/PSE
46
ENEA
46
Energa
46
RWE/STOEN
47
Electrabel
47
Company Profile
48
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE)
48
Regional Overview
54
CEE Power Regional Overview
54
Glossary
62
Table: Glossary Of Terms
62
Methodology
63
Methodology And Sources
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).