Poland Power Report

Published 23 January 2015

  • 78 pages
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$1,295.00
Poland Power Report

BMI View: Coal will retain its central role in Poland's electricity generation mix - with the government focused on ensuring electricity prices remain low and bolstering energy security in the face of Russian aggression in Europe. In the run up to the 2015 general election, we expect the Polish government will seek to intervene directly in the power market to drive investment into new capacity, achieve its strategic aims and boost its poll ratings.

Our forecasts for the Polish power sector are underpinned by the country's strategy of burning cheap domestic coal for electricity generation. Coal will remain a critical component of the country's power mix in order to ensure electricity prices remain competitive, as well as to support Poland's politically sensitive coal mining industry. Coal will also ensure energy security amid fears Russia might cut off gas supplies to Europe in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.

Ewa Kopacz's (Civic Platform) appointment as Prime Minister - and her subsequent actions and policy announcements - suggest there will be little change to Poland's long-term energy policy in the run up to the October 2015 general election - or beyond if Kopacz is re-elected. As such, we have largely maintained our forecasts for the Polish power sector, with coal set to remain the dominant fuel in the power mix over our forecast period - accounting for over 70% of total generation by 2024.

Our forecasts are supported by recent political posturing over the proposed EU 2030 energy and climate change package - with Poland emerging as one of the major winners following protracted negotiations over the targets. Poland has a history of clashing with the European Commission (EC) over climate change policies and the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), and we expect further disagreement as Poland leverages concerns about energy security and over-reliance on Russian gas to extract concessions. The fact Poland managed to extract major concessions over the ETS -...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Poland Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Poland Power Forecast Scenario
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
16
Table: EU 2030 Energy And Climate Change Targets
19
Consumption
35
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
35
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
36
Transmission And Distribution
37
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
37
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
37
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
37
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
45
Poland Power Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
46
Risks
46
Market Overview
48
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
48
Regulation And Competition
48
Sustainable Energy Policies
49
Poland Power Projects Database
51
Table: Major Projects - Power
51
Competitive Landscape
58
Tauron
59
PGE/PSE
60
ENEA
61
Energa
61
RWE/STOEN
62
Electrabel
62
Company Profile
63
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE)
63
Regional Overview
68
CEE Power Regional Overview
68
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sources
79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
81

The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc