BMI View: A PiS victory is the most likely outcome of Poland's parliamentary elections - with the party's populist brand of politics likely to mean it is more vehement than the incumbent Civic Platform in its support for the domestic coal industry. As a consequence, we anticipate an even more fractious relationship with the EU over climate targets and a greater willingness to intervene in the state-controlled utilities sector to support Poland's coal miners, at the expense of minority shareholders.
|e/f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||151.504||153.719||157.426||162.300||168.201||172.789||175.484|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||140.5||143.3||146.3||149.4||153.0||157.0||161.7|
|Capacity, Net, MW||36,080.1||37,460.6||38,696.2||40,150.4||42,039.0||43,468.8||44,499.9|
A PiS majority or PiS-led coalition government should advance a more populist brand of politics that will be heavily focused on sustaining the role of cheap, but polluting coal in the domestic electricity generation mix - to ensure retail electricity prices remain low. This policy has also been pursued by Civic Platform, but we expect PiS's position to be more inflexible - exacerbating Warsaw's reputation as an outsider in Europe in terms of its position on climate policy.
The incumbent Civic Platform is attempting to restructure Poland's mining industry with the help of Poland's biggest state-backed utilities. Reports indicate PGE, Energa and gas company PGNiG may be involved in plans to rescue Kompania Weglowa, as co-investors in a state investment fund. In October 2015, Tauron's government-controlled supervisory board was even reported to have sacked the CEO, Dariusz Lubera, after his company failed to buy a loss-making mine. We expect the PiS to implement similar plans...
The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).