BMI View: Poland's power sector will remain dominated by coal-fired generation across the coming decade , as the country's PiS government continues to favour this strategically important sector over gas-fired generation and non-hydro renewables. Recently adopted punitive requirements for wind power development reaffirm our view and will dampen investor interest . As s uch energy polic ies will continue to drive a wedge between Poland and the EU over emissions and environmental targets.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data|
|Generation, Total, TWh||153.680||156.820||161.110||164.920||168.790||170.750||172.920|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||143.4||146.4||149.5||153.1||156.8||159.9||163.1|
|Capacity, Net, MW||37,864.0||39,066.4||40,362.5||41,991.9||43,109.8||43,794.7||44,579.2|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
While the share of coal-fired generation in the country's total energy mix is expected to downtick from 78.9% in 2015 to around 75.4% in 2025, Poland will remain overwhelmingly dependent on this fuel for power generation.
In late June 2016, the Polish President Andrzej Duda signed amendments to the Act on Renewable Energy Sources and Act on Windfarms, which notably reduce state support for the development of renewable energy and impose tight restrictions on new wind power developments.
As such, we hold our subdued growth forecast for Poland's non-hydro renewables generation. We now believe non-hydro renewables generation will average 3.4% expansion in the next 10 years, contributing 18.1% to the total power mix in 2025 (up from 15.6% in 2015).
We maintain our view that the role of natural gas in Poland's energy generation will remain very limited over the coming decade. Its share in the total power mix will rise from around 2.9% in 2015 to 4.1% in 2025.
In June 2016, Poland has welcomed the first commercial LNG shipment to its new Swinoujscie terminal.
In July 2016, the CEO of Poland's largest utility PGE said to the national media that the country's plans to build its first nuclear power facility will not be realised at least until 2030.
The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).