BMI View: R ecently elected Order and Justice (PiS) government's support for coal-fired generation and proposed punitive requirements for wind power developers will dampen investor interest and ensure the country's continued reliance on the strategically important coal sector for power generation. This will put Poland at odds with the EU over emissions and environmental targets.
|e/f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||153.680||156.820||161.110||164.920||168.790||170.750||172.920|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||143.4||146.4||149.5||153.1||156.8||159.9||163.1|
|Capacity, Net, MW||37,864.0||39,066.4||40,362.5||41,991.9||43,109.8||43,794.7||44,579.2|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We maintain our view that coal will dominate Poland's power mix, accounting for more than 75% of the total generation throughout our forecast period to 2025.
According to reports by Greenpeace, in early 2016 Poland decided to scrap Choczewo as a potential site for the construction of the proposed nuclear power plant.
In early March 2016, Polish government presented draft legislation, proposing crippling requirements for wind power developers. We believe these requirements, combined with the new PiS majority government's support for coal-fired generation, will have a detrimental impact on investor confidence in the Polish wind power sector.
As such, we downgraded our growth forecast for Poland's non-hydro renewables generation. We now believe non-hydro renewables generation will average 3.4% expansion in the next ten years (down from 4.9%), contributing 18.1% to the total power mix in 2025.
In February 2016, Sweden-based Eltel signed two power transmission contracts for reconstruction of high voltage substations with the Polish transmission grid operator PSE. The projects are in the Jasiniec and Joachimow regions and have a total value of approximately EUR25mn.
In early 2016, Poland's largest energy utility Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) and GE signed an approximately EUR40mn deal to upgrade generator and steam turbine assets at the Turow power plant. The upgrades are expected to increase the facility's output by 45MW.
The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).