Poland Power Report

Published 31 July 2015

  • 81 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Poland Power Report

BMI View: Investors in Poland's power sector will have to be wary of populist policies that are unveiled ahead of the October 2015 general election, which could lead to greater government intervention in the utilities sector. As a tight electoral race forces the incumbent PO and the opposition PiS into a bidding war for votes, there will be reduced visibility on policy formation , deterring private investors.

The biggest risks to investors in the Polish power sector ahead of the October 2015 parliamentary election are political. There is a non-negligible risk of a change of government in October, which poses risks to investors through reduced visibility surrounding policy formation and continuity, and also through populist policies targeting specific sectors - particularly the power sector.

At the time of writing, incumbent Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz and her Civic Platform (PO) government are trailing in the polls to the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party. We highlight the PiS is not currently likely to achieve an overall majority and has no obvious coalition partner - but investors should be wary of the increased probability of populist policies unveiled even before the election as tight electoral race forces PiS and PO into a bidding war for votes. This will deter private investment as regulatory uncertainty over issues such as electricity prices, the future of state-owned utilities, and the role of coal and emissions targets weighs on the outlook for the power market.

Key Trends And Developments

  • A victory for the PiS in the October elections would pose a threat to investors in the power sector and heighten the risk of confrontation with the EU over energy policy. Although the incumbent PO government has had a turbulent relationship with the European Commission (EC) as it has sought to sustain Poland's reliance on coal and support the domestic coal mining industry in the face of more stringent EU green energy policies, the election of more populist PiS...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Poland Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2014-2019)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Poland Power Forecast Scenario
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
16
Table: EU 2030 Energy And Climate Change Targets
29
Consumption
40
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
40
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
40
Transmission And Distribution
42
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
42
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
42
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
42
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
44
Poland Power Risk/Reward Index
48
Rewards
48
Risks
48
Market Overview
50
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
50
Regulation And Competition
50
Sustainable Energy Policies
51
Poland Power Projects Database
53
Table: Major Projects - Power
53
Competitive Landscape
60
Tauron
61
PGE/PSE
61
ENEA
62
Energa
62
RWE/STOEN
62
Electrabel
63
Company Profile
64
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE)
64
Regional Overview
69
CEE Power Overview
69
Glossary
74
Table: Glossary Of Terms
74
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sources
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
78
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
80

The Poland Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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