BMI View : We hold our subdued outlook for the development of Poland's non-hydro renewables industry as the country's Law and Justice government has introduced a number of restrictive measures to slow down the expansion of wind and biomass sectors. These regulatory changes, along with strong government support for its strategic coal sector, will likely deter investors from entering the country's renewables market over the near- to medium term.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||23.570||24.470||25.360||26.150||26.910||27.540||28.420|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||12.850||3.820||3.650||3.110||2.910||2.330||3.210|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||6,011.0||6,157.6||6,322.2||6,499.3||6,671.5||6,866.4||7,119.6|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||28.5||2.4||2.7||2.8||2.7||2.9||3.7|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Following a significant downgrade to our forecasts in Q116, this quarter we have kept our muted projections for growth in Poland's non-hydro renewables industry. We forecast total non-hydro renewables capacity additions to average 3.2% per annum during 2016-2025, while generation will record 3.4% growth per annum during the same period.
By 2025, non-hydro renewables will account for around 17.1% of the total electricity capacity and 18% of the total generation. This will mark relatively minor improvements, as these figures currently stand at 15.7% and 15.3% respectively.
In July 2016 , Polenergia received an environmental permit for the 600MW Baltic Srodkowy III offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea. The permit will allow the firm to start work on the facility's technical design. The wind farm will comprise 120 turbines, of up to 5MW each. The scheme is estimated to entail an investment of PLN10bn (USD2.5bn) and take three years to prepare the technical design and receive building permission, while the construction is expected to start in 2019. The facility, which will have a total capacity of 1.2GW, is expected to start producing power by 2022.
South Korean company POSCO Engineering and Construction has completed construction of a USD250mn waste-to-power plant in Krakow. The facility will be able to process 220,000 tonnes of household waste a year. Through using the heat from incineration, it is expected to produce 11MWh of electricity and supply 35MWh of district heating a year.
In September 2016, Poland's leading power company PGE said it will seek to produce 25% of the country's total renewable energy by 2030. In order to achieve this goal, PGE is reportedly looking into construction of a 1,000MW offshore wind farm as well as expanding its biomass capacity.
The Poland Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Poland. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Poland, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Poland, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Poland Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Poland renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Poland, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.