BMI View : We maintain our subdued outlook for the development of Poland's non-hydro renewables industry as the country's Law and Justice (PiS) government is implementing restrictive measures to slow down expansion of the wind power sector. We believe these requirements will have an adverse impact on the deployment of new wind power projects as well as the operating environment of existing projects, while the regulatory uncertainty will likely deter investors from entering the country's renewables market .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||23.580||24.480||25.370||26.160||26.920||27.550||28.440|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||12.840||3.820||3.650||3.110||2.910||2.330||3.210|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||6,746.0||6,931.4||7,134.7||7,348.9||7,546.8||7,759.3||8,048.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||25.9||2.8||2.9||3.0||2.7||2.8||3.7|
Latest Updates A nd Structural Trends
After a significant downgrade in Q116, this quarter we have maintained our forecasts for Poland's non-hydro renewables sector. We expect both non-hydro renewables capacity and generation to average 3.4% growth per annum during 2016-2025.
We retain our view that non-hydro renewables' share in the country power generation mix will rise from the currently estimated 15.3% to 18.1% in 2025.
In May 2016, Poland's parliament passed a legislation significantly tightening regulations for the development of wind power. The new requirements include location requirements and higher property taxes.
Taking into consideration these new restrictions, we expect the growth in the wind power to slow down significantly. We forecast annual wind capacity expansion to average 2.5% between 2016 and 2020, compared to an annual average of 34.6% between 2011 and 2015.
In May 2016, Israel-based Energix Renewable Energies obtained more than PLN250mn (USD64mn) of financing for the 56MW Phase II of its Banie wind project in north west Poland. The wind farm has a total capacity of 192MW.
The Poland Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Poland. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Poland, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Poland, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Poland Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Poland renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Poland, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.