Poland Renewables Report

Published 06 May 2015

  • 45 pages
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$1,295.00
Poland Renewables Report

BMI View: Poland's reluctance to adopt stringent EU emissions targets for 2030 sends warning signals to potential investors in the country's renewables industry. Poland's wavering support for renewable energy and - by extension - the uncertain regulatory environment has long been a key concern, undermining the long-term growth prospects of the sector. This uncertainty is reflected in what was believed to be, in April 2014 the final approval by the Polish government of the RES law: on the contrary, in October 2014, the Ministry of the Economy submitted to parliament a set of additional proposed amendments . The final draft of the act on renewable energy sources was finally adopted by the Polish parliament on 20 February 2015. The Act will now be put forward for the Polish president ' s signature. The adopted solutions will bring about a radical change in the support scheme for RES in Poland. The government wants to decrease the level of state support for RES. It has been estimated that the cost of the previous sup port system would amount to PLN 8.90 bn by 2020, whereas the cost of a new support scheme would a mount only to PLN 4.26 bn during the same time period. This confirms our view that the current government will continue to favour coal fired generation.

Poland aims to derive 15% of its energy production from renewable sources by 2020, and we expect the wind and biomass segments to drive growth in the renewables industry. However, Poland remains at odds with the European Commission (EC) amid concerns that implementing green energy policies will destroy Poland's coal mining industry and harm the economy. We do not expect the approach to EU energy policy to change under new Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz, who has adopted a similar tone to her predecessor Donald Tusk (now President of the European Council). In fact, in her first speech to parliament on October 1, Kopacz reiterated the strategic importance of coal and stated that she would not condone any...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Poland Renewables Forecast Scenario
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2019-2024)
16
Poland Renewables Projects Database
26
Table: Poland Key Projects - Renewables
26
Industry Risk/Reward Index
28
Poland Renewables Risk/Reward Index
28
Rewards
28
Risks
29
Market Overview
30
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
30
Targets (Renewables And Emissions)
30
Subsidies
31
Infrastructure
32
Competitive Landscape
34
Tauron Polska Energia
35
PGE/PSE
35
ENEA
36
Energa
36
RWE/STOEN
37
Glossary
38
Table: Glossary Of Terms
38
Methodology
39
Methodology And Sources
39
Industry Forecast Methodology
39
Sources
41
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
41
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
43
Table: Weighting Indicators
44

The Poland Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Poland. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Poland, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Poland, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's Poland Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Poland renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Poland, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc