BMI View : Mounting political risks in Poland made us substantially downgrade our forecast s for the growth in the Poland' s renewables sector. The newly elected Law and Justice (PiS) government holds a robust support for the domestic coal sector, while at the same time proposing a number of restrictive legislations for the development of renewable energy sources, particularly the wind power segment. We believe this will result in a deteriorating operating and investment environment for the renewables' developers.
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
Considering mounting political risks, we have substantially downgraded our forecast for the growth in Poland's renewables sector. We now expect the non-hydro renewables capacity to expand by 3.4% per annum over the coming decade - down from our previous forecast of 6.6%.
We believe that planned punitive requirements on wind power projects, coupled with the new PiS majority government's support for coal-fired power, will have a detrimental impact on investor confidence in the Polish wind power sector. As such, we have revised downwards our growth forecast for the wind segment from 6.9% per annum to 3.0% per annum over the coming decade.
The latest amendment to the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Act prompted another six-month postponement of the first competitive auction for wind power until July 1 2016. This creates even greater policy uncertainty, as other amendments to the RES Act are likely.
In late 2015, Chinese firm Yingli Green Energy expanded its joint solar project pipeline in Poland with local company R.Power from 30MW to 60MW. The deal extends the two firms' existing partnership to build ground-mounted projects for inclusion into the auction systems over the next two years.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||23.580||24.481||25.374||26.163||26.925||27.551||28.436|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||12.844||3.821||3.648||3.110||2.911||2.325||3.214|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||6,746.0||6,931.4||7,134.7||7,348.9||7,546.8||7,759.3||8,048.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||25.9||2.7||2.9||3.0||2.7||2.8||3.7|
The Poland Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Poland. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Poland, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Poland, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Poland Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Poland renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Poland, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.