BMI View: The Polish retail sector will benefit from a strong economic growth throughout the forecast period. As the unemployment rate declines and household incomes rise, retailers will enjoy higher consumer confidence and spending. Warsaw and medium-sized cities will offer the greatest rewards for retailers thanks to under-saturation of their retail markets. On the other hand, high popularity of the conservative party may result in stricter regulation of retail activities.
Household spending, which was growing consistently in 2013-2014, is going to post a slump in 2015 in terms of US dollar. Appreciation of US dollar will be the main determinant of the 12.7% projected decline of household expenditures in 2015. Meanwhile, in zloty terms, will grow healthily by 3.6%, faster than in 2013-2014. This indicates a large real gain, since inflation is projected to amount to only 0.8% at the end of this year. The Polish economy retains a rapid growth rate with its real GDP expected to expand by 3.5% this year and causing positive developments across the country: unemployment continues to decline making more households independent of social welfare, wages are growing and consumer confidence is improving. The country remained relatively intact after Russia's counter-sanctions late in 2014, which were initially forecast to hurt Poland's economy and especially its agricultural sector. With a constant flow of foreign direct investments and rising entrepreneurship within the country, more businesses are creating employment and fuelling the economic growth.
The positive developments are highly likely to extend into the forecast period. We forecast that the growth of real GDP will exceed 3.5% annually for every year in 2016-2019 providing a strong backbone for further development of the retail industry. Warsaw is likely to emerge as a central destination for retail investments. The construction of new retail area and expansion of the existing shopping centres will diversify...
The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.