Poland Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Poland Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Preliminary real GDP estimates for 2015 indicate that the Polish economy beat expectations, growing by 3.6% against consensus expectations for growth of 3.5%. This continued strong economic performance will support growth in employment opportunities and household incomes, directly benefiting the retail sector. We believe that amendments to the 2016 budget will prove to be growth positive in the short-run and the government's policies to increase social transfers to households via child benefits will also support increases in household consumption.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
BMI/Eurostat

Key Views & Developments

  • We expect total household spending to amount toUSD272bn in 2016, down by 1.5%, mostly due to appreciated US dollar. In Polish zloty terms, we expect a rise of 4.4% this year.

  • Essential spending will continue to account for the majority of household spending, with the largest sector represented by housing and utilities at 24.3% in 2016.

  • The number of households falling into the key USD10,000+ wage bracket is expected to reach 7.9mn in 2016, representing 57.4% of all households.

  • Any efforts by Polish banks to pass the costs of the government's new asset tax onto clients may affect disposable income slightly and impact on household consumption.

  • Poland rose to 39th place out of 178 countries in the Heritage Foundation's 2016 Index of Economic Freedom (placing it 18th in Europe), the improvement in the country's ranking is due primarily to progress in open markets and monetary freedom.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Headline Retail Forecast
11
Table: Total Household Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Poland 2013-2020)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Poland 2013-2020)
16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
18
Retail Sector Forecast
20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
23
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
24
Table: Household Goods Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
24
Table: Personal Care Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
26
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
27
Table: Household Income Data (Poland 2013-2020)
28
Table: Labour Market Data (Poland 2013-2020)
32
Demographic Forecast
32
Table: Total Population (Poland 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Babies (Poland 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Young Children (Poland 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Children (Poland 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Poland 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Young People (Poland 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Poland 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Poland 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Young Adults (Poland 2013-2020)
37
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Poland 2013-2020)
37
Table: Population: Urban (Poland 2013-2020)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216
38
Poland Risk/Reward Index
39
Rewards
39
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Competitive Landscape
48
Clothing & Footwear
48
Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers
48
Household Goods
49
Table: Selected Household Goods/Homeware/Home Improvement Retailers
49
Electronics
49
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
49
Department Stores
50
Table: Selected Department Stores
50
E-commerce
50
Table: Selected E-commerce/Online Marketplaces
50
Pharmacies
51
Table: Selected Drug Stores/Pharmacies
51
Glossary
52
Methodology
59
Industry Forecast Methodology
59
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
62
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.