Poland Retail Report

Published 01 July 2015

  • 62 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Poland Retail Report

BMI View: Stable economic growth in Poland will lead to tangible gains for retailers. In zloty terms, total household spending is set to maintain a 4.9% compound annual growth rate until 2019. Retailers in food and non-food retail sub-sectors will be expanding their operations as new supermarkets and shopping centres continue to open. However, the election of new president Andrzej Duda can potentially make the market more conservative and robust.

The current expansion of Poland's economy will extend into 2015 and beyond until the end of the forecast period in 2019. Strengthening domestic consumption and growing exports will fuel the country's economic ascent. In nominal zloty terms, the GDP will average a 5.2% compound annual growth rate during 2015-2019. Inflation will preserve a very low or even negative rate in the first half of the forecast period and will pick up a higher rate in 2017 as economy and spending rebounds and Poland is indirectly affected by quantitative easing in the eurozone. As the growth translates into higher profits and wages, the country's households will see their wealth expand. Net household income is projected to rise by a CAGR of 3.2% over our forecast period. Growing wealth will allow Polish households to make larger purchases and become less price conscious.

As a result, Poland's vast retail market will still be saturated in the medium term. Conveniences stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets and shopping centres are under construction across the country. The majority of new developments will take place in smaller cities. Warsaw, Krakow, Lodz, and Wroclaw will likely no longer be the centre of the growth of the retail sector. As the income gap between urban and rural populations narrows, smaller towns and villages will become increasingly attractive for retailers. Medium-sized supermarkets and small shopping centres will constitute the majority of new developments this year. Colliers estimates 600,000 sq m of new retail space will be...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Poland 2012-2019)
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Poland 2012-2019)
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Poland 2012-2019)
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Poland 2012-2019)
17
Retail Sector Forecast
19
Food & Drink
19
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Poland 2012-2019)
20
Clothing & Footwear
21
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Poland 2012-2019)
21
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Poland 2012-2019)
22
Personal Care & Effects
23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Poland 2012-2019)
24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Income Data (Poland 2012-2019)
26
Table: Labour Market Data (Poland 2012-2019)
28
Demographic Forecast
28
Table: Total Population (Poland 2012-2019)
30
Table: Population: Babies (Poland 2012-2019)
30
Table: Population: Young Children (Poland 2012-2019)
30
Table: Population: Children (Poland 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Poland 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Young People (Poland 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Poland 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Poland 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: Young Adults (Poland 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Poland 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Urban (Poland 2012-2019)
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Analysis
34
Real GDP By Expenditure Components
34
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Retail Risk/Reward Index
38
Poland Risk/Reward Index
40
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Market Overview
41
Competitive Landscape
44
MGR
44
Clothing And Footwear
45
DIY
45
Personal Care and Pharmacies
46
Consumer Electronics
47
Glossary
48
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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