BMI View: As a member of the EU and OECD, Poland remains of the wealthiest countries in CEE and demonstrates a high level of saturation in its retail sector. Poland was threatened by a number of Russian sanctions in H2 2014, however because of the strong domestic consumption and success in diversifying its export markets, it has proven its resilience against external threats and is expected to post an impressive 4.5% growth in GDP in 2015. External demand shocks and slowdown in euro area are holding back the rise in the prices as inflation amounted to only 0.4% in 2014 and will rise to 0.9% in 2015 ultimately benefitting the consumers in the country.
High integration in the Western European economy has had slightly negative effects for Polish consumers and businesses in the recent months. First, farmers in Poland, as in many other European Union states, were hit by the continent-wide Russian embargo on fruits and vegetables which precipitated up to 80% falls in prices of the goods. Even though consumers benefit from low prices, fruits and vegetables do not constitute a significant part in their consumption basket, for small and large farmers collectively the embargo of apples alone could cost more than USD650m in losses. Second, similarly to euro, Polish zloty lost around 10% of its value against dollar in the first three quarters of 2014 making imports less affordable for the consumers in the country. BMI anticipates that with the current trend in currency exchanges rates, Polish consumers will keep turning away from the products imported from outside Poland and euro zone.
The attractiveness of Polish products is also increasing because of the rising purchasing power of the consumers. BMI predicts that inflation will remain relatively low for the whole forecast period reaching its peak of 3% annually in 2017-2018. Meanwhile, household income is set to increase at a faster pace for each of the years of our forecast period. Absence of inflationary fears...
The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.