Poland Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Poland Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The growth outlook for Poland ' s large and diversified retail market is mostly positive. Healthy economic growth in the country, where GDP is forecast to increase by 3.7% in 2016, along with falling oil prices and strong employment growth all indicate a rise in average household income rates and we are currently forecasting spending increases across all retail subsectors when measured in local currency term s, though t he loss of the value of the zloty against the dollar means in US dollar terms the market will contract in the short-term, before returning to positive growth. There are some potential downside risks. A number of government policies enacted in recent months have been seen as anti-foreign investment and there are limitations in the labour market which will hamper both the sourcing of adequate skilled labour and hamper wage growth over the coming years .

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Eurostat, BMI

Key Views And Developments

  • Poland's retail sector continues to attract foreign investment. UK based Tesco announced in June 2016 it was opening a new distribution centre in Poznan which will service 140 stores from September 2016, reiterating its committment to the market following the closure of nine stores in 2015.

  • In July 2016 Poland's ruling Law and Justice party approved the implementation of a new retail revenue tax which imposes a 0.8% on monthly sales revenue between PLN17mn and PLN170mn and a 1.4% levy on monthly sales venue over PLN170mn. The government claims this will benefit smaller chains competing with large foreign retailers however critics argue the tax will deter investors in a market where profit margins are already slim.

  • Poland presents retailers with one of the largest potential consumer markets in the region, with a population of around 38.6mn (in 2016). Urbanisation rates are also growing, with the percentage of the population living in urban areas forecast to reach 60.7% in 2020.

  • Improving employment rates amidst a tight labour market is boosting income levels and the number of households in the key USD10,000+ bracket is expected to reach almost 9.5mn in 2016 - accounting for almost 70% of all households and indicating an increasingly afluent consumer base.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Headline Retail Forecast
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
12
Table: Total Household Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Poland 2013-2020)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Poland 2013-2020)
16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
18
Retail Sub-Sector Forecast
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Food, Drink And Tobacco
22
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
23
Clothing And Footwear
24
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
24
Household Goods
25
Table: Household Goods Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
25
Personal Care
26
Table: Personal Care Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
27
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
29
Table: Household Income Data (Poland 2013-2020)
30
Table: Labour Market Data (Poland 2013-2020)
32
Demographic Forecast
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
34
Table: Total Population (Poland 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Babies (Poland 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Young Children (Poland 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Children (Poland 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Poland 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Young People (Poland 2013-2020)
37
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Poland 2013-2020)
37
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Poland 2013-2020)
37
Table: Population: Young Adults (Poland 2013-2020)
38
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Poland 2013-2020)
38
Table: Population: Urban (Poland 2013-2020)
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416
39
Poland Risk/Reward Index
40
Rewards
40
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Competitive Landscape
49
Clothing And Footwear
49
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
49
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
50
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers
50
Electronics
50
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
50
Department Stores
51
Table: Selected Department Stores
51
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces
51
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers And Online Marketplaces
51
Drug Stores And Pharmacies
52
Table: Selected Drug Stores And Pharmacies
52
Glossary
53
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.