Poland Shipping Report

Published 19 August 2015

  • 92 pages
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$1,295.00
Poland Shipping Report

BMI View: Polish ports will have a good year in 2015, but the Port of Gdansk is set to be an outperformer in box volumes by rapidly surpassing our previous growth estimates with a huge 30% year-on-year rise this year, up from our 8% forecast last quarter. Tonnage throughput at the port will decelerate slightly, but the port has excelled recently in being added to the G6 Alliance's weekly Loop 7 Asia service. This both diversifies Gdansk's connections to Asia and solidifies the port as a major competitive force in the Baltic region. The port will also reap the rewards from a new liquid berth terminal. The port of Gdynia will see solid growth of between 6-9%, exceeding Gdansk's growth in tonnage throughput terms.

Our real GDP growth forecast for Poland in 2015 remains at 3.5%, up from 3.2% in Q1, and we expect growth of 3.7% in 2016. Poland is still very much dependent on the eurozone, leaving it vulnerable to German supply chains and exports to Russia and Ukraine. It is also vulnerable to the strengthening Swiss franc - nearly 40% of mortgages are held in Swiss francs - which could still hold back Polish household spending. However, the inclusion of Gdansk in the G6's Loop 7 suggests that Poland could be on its way to opening up beyond its immediate region and the eurozone, increasing its protection in the long term against multiple European political and economic fragilities.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 4.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 33.569mn tonnes. Over the medium-term to 2019, we project a 4.5% average annual increase.

  • 2015 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 30.0% to 1.58mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium-term, we project an 13.8% average annual increase.

  • Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 8.8% to 21.116mn tonnes in 2015, with five-year average annual growth at 7.0%.

  • Port of Gdynia container handling growth predicted to be 6.7% in 2015 to 905,674 TEUs, with...

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Port Of Gdansk Throughput
13
Port Of Gdynia Throughput
17
Table: Major Ports Data (Poland 2012-2019)
20
Table: Trade Overview (Poland 2012-2019)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Poland 2012-2019)
21
Table: Top Import Sources, 2006-2013
23
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013
24
Market Overview
25
Poland Container Shipping Market Overview
25
Shipping - Global Industry View
31
Three Container Routes To Watch In 2015
31
Global Company Strategy
38
Maersk Line
38
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
49
CMA CGM
55
Evergreen Line
64
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
72
Macroeconomic Forecasts
80
Economic Analysis
80
Real GDP By Expenditure
81
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
85
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
87
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
87
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
89

The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.

BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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