Both Gdansk and Gdynia To Do Well This Year
Polish ports will have a good year in 2015. We are now predicting cargo volume growth in the 6-9% range - very encouraging against the context of the rest of Europe. GDP expansion, a continuing trade recovery (despite some worries over export demand), the beneficial effects of capacity expansion, and Poland's important gateway role will support growth. Both key ports - Gdansk and Gdynia - will see tonnage and box traffic rising at a healthy rate.
As BMI has been expecting, the Polish economy is being driven forward by a recovery in domestic demand supported by growing exports, as the German supply chain receives a boost from a weak euro and low oil prices. There are some potential problems on the horizon, but we believe these are not serious enough to alter a generally positive picture. One is a strengthening Swiss franc, which could hold back Polish household spending, since nearly 40% of Polish mortgages are held in Swiss francs. The stronger Swiss franc could mean higher mortgage repayments by Polish families, limiting their spending in other areas. But this may be offset by lower Swiss interest rates. A second problem is posed by lower exports to Russia and the Ukraine, caused by a combination of economic and political problems in those markets. But this too may be offset by export gains elsewhere. The net result is that we have increased our GDP growth forecast to 3.5% this year (up from 3.2% previously). We expect growth of 3.7% in 2016.
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 34.246mn tonnes. Over the medium-term to 2019, we project a 6.5% average annual increase.
2015 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 8.0% to 1.31mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium-term, we project an 8.9% average annual increase.
Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 8.8% to 21.116mn tonnes in 2015, with five-year average annual...
The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.
BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.