Ports Of Gdansk And Gdynia To See 6-8% Growth
We continue to expect a strong performance from Polish ports in 2015. GDP expansion, a continuing trade recovery (despite some worries over export demand), the beneficial effects of capacity expansion, and Poland's important gateway role will support growth. Both key ports - Gdansk and Gdynia - will see tonnage and box traffic rising in the 6-8% range.
We have edged up our outlook for the Polish economy relative to our last quarterly report, although we remain below consensus. We believe GDP will expand 3.2% in 2015 (3.1% previously) after estimated growth of 3.1% in 2014 (2.8% previously). One of the biggest drivers of growth is government spending ahead of parliamentary elections, expected in October. Before resigning to take a new post in the European Council, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a public spending package and we expect his successor Ewa Kopacz to honour this pledge. Household consumption is also positive although it has struggled to gain momentum. Exports are somewhat more under pressure, particularly as we have reined in our forecasts for Germany, a key Polish export market.
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 34.03mn tonnes. Over the medium-term to 2019, we project a 6.5% average annual increase.
2015 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 8.0% to 1.36mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium-term, we project an 8.9% average annual increase.
Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 8.8% to 21.06mn tonnes in 2015, with five-year average annual growth at 7.0%.
Port of Gdynia container handling growth predicted to be 6.7% in 2015 to 830,805 TEUs, with growth set to average 6.4% in the medium-term to 2019
2015 total trade growth forecast at 11.9%, up significantly from an estimated 3.3% in 2014.
Key Industry Trends
Privatisation Of Gdansk Multipurpose Terminals Proposed: The board of the...
The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.
BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.