Portugal Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Portugal Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Portugal's economic recovery has taken a turn for the worse, and fixed investment will remain weak on the back of increasing policy uncertainty and weak global demand.

  • The large corporate and government debt loads and precarious credit market conditions will remain a major impediment to an acceleration of growth.

  • Portugal's Socialist Party-led minority government will become increasingly unstable as it walks an ever tighter rope between fulfilling demands for fiscal prudence by its bailout creditors and demands for better workers' rights by domestic labour unions.

Forecast Changes

  • We have revised down our average annual real GDP growth forecasts for 2016-17 to 1.0% from 1.5% previously.

  • We have revised down our forecasts for the euro exchange rate, and now project the currency to continue its multi-year depreciation towards parity against the US dollar.

Key Risks

A reversal of the reform path under the ruling Socialist Party and the two radical left-wing parties that will support the minority government, i.e. the Left Bloc and the Socialist Party, poses risks for political stability and market perceptions of the sovereign risk profile.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Portugal 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.9
Nominal GDP, EURbn 173.4 179.4 187.5 193.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.3 0.3 1.2 1.5
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.82 0.92 0.95 0.96
Budget balance, % of GDP -7.2 -4.4 -3.2 -3.2
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Prospects Are Tepid
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Regional Monetary Policy
11
ECB Easing Throws A Lifeline To Banks
11
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
13
The Portuguese Economy To 2025
13
Crisis An Opportunity To Improve Long-Term Growth
13
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
13
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
15
SWOT Analysis
15
BMI Political Risk Index
15
Domestic Politics
16
Emboldened Unions Spelling End Of Austerity
16
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
19
SWOT Analysis
19
Operational Risk Index
19
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
21
Global Macro Outlook
21
Summer Of Risk
21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
25

Assess your risk exposure in Portugal with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Portugal with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report