Portugal Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Portugal Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Portugal Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Portugal's recovery will remain on track in 2016, with domestic demand being the main driver of growth, mainly boosted by a fiscal stimulus by the government. However, fading tailwinds from the ECB QE programme and lower oil prices, stagnating external demand and the precarious condition of the banking sector will cap growth at just 1.7% in 2016, and 1.6% in 2017.

  • The victory of centre-right candidate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Portugal's presidential election on January 24 will boost the country's political stability outlook. Presenting himself as a moderate consensus-builder, he will serve as a counterweight to the Socialist-led minority government in relation to its more radical supporters, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party.

Forecast Changes

  • Portuguese real GDP growth came in at 1.3% in Q415, taking the full-year outturn to 1.5%, equal to our estimate. Portugal's rebound from its three-year long recession in 2011-2013 will remain broadly in place in 2016, as reflected in our forecast for a 1.6% full-year expansion of real GDP growth. We retain our subdued growth outlook for the country and have not modified our forecasts for 2016.

Key Risks

Risks to Portugal's growth outlook stem from the possibility that there emerge disagreements between the ruling Socialist Party and the two radical left-wing parties that will support the Socialist-led minority government, i.e. the Left Bloc and the Socialist Party. If the two far left parties raise demands over a more radical policy trajectory for Portugal, for instance eurozone exit, this could have dramatically negative impact on the political stability outlook for the country and market perceptions of its sovereign risk profile.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Portugal 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.6
Nominal GDP, EURbn 173.1 180.5 187.9 194.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.3 0.3 1.2 1.5
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.83 0.95 0.91 0.87
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.5 -3.4 -3.2 -3.0
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Fragile Recovery On Track
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECAST
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
13
The Portuguese Economy To 2025
13
Crisis An Opportunity To Improve Long-Term Growth
13
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
13
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
15
SWOT Analysis
15
BMI Political Risk Index
15
Domestic Politics
16
Centre-Right Presidential Victory Good For Political Stability
16
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
19
SWOT Analysis
19
Operational Risk Index
19
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
21
Global Macro Outlook
21
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
22
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
25

Assess your risk exposure in Portugal with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Portugal with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report