BMI View: Portugal's economic situation is slowly improving, but the after effects of the global economic crisis, and Portugal's own recession, which only ended at the end of 2014, continue to affect growth in the country's power sector, which will remain slow during the next ten years. In early 2015, Portugal began making early repayments on the loan it borrowed from the IMF in 2011, increasing investor confidence in the market. This resulted in the upgrading of state utility Energias de Portugal (EDP) and state grid company Redes Energeticas Nacionais (REN), to investment grade status, allowing both to sell bonds and reduce their considerable debt. This signifies that investor confidence is gradually returning, although BMI believes growth in the country's renewable sector will not return to pre-economic crisis levels before 2024.
That said, Portugal's recent history, aided by strong government direction on renewable policy, has seen considerable investment since 2001. In consequence, generation from renewable sources will account for some 29.17% of total power output in 2015, a figure which will remain steady, reaching 29.5% in 2024. Despite sluggish growth in the renewable sector - BMI forecasts growth between 2016 and 2024 to be 1.6%, slightly less than the previous quarter's 2% estimate - renewable generation will continue to play a key role in the country's energy matrix.
Wind power generation continues to dominate as a government focus, although BMI forecasts wind capacity to grow by just 1.52% between 2016 and 2024. In 2015, generation from wind power will be 13.35TWh, equivalent to 77.42% of non-hydro renewable potential. BMI forecasts this figure to increase to15.3TWh by 2024.
Solar power will only account for 1.27% of non-hydropower renewable output in 2015, equivalent to 0.64TWh. BMI forecasts this figure to increase slightly during the period 2016 to 2024, reaching 3.72% by 2024, equivalent to1.52TWh. Due to a lack of government focus on the...
The Portugal Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Portugal. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Portugal, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Portugal, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Portugal Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Portugal renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Portugal to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Portugal renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Portugal, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.