Qatar Country Risk Report

Published 23 June 2015 | Quarterly

  • 50 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,195.00
Qatar Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Qatar's short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country's native population and enjoy the highest per capita GDP in the world. A small population - and one without much inclination to protest against the government - will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.

  • The Qatari economy will continue to expand at a rapid pace over the next few years, supported by accommodative fiscal policy - notably infrastructure spending - and strong population increases. The non-hydrocarbons economy will propel growth, with construction activity and the services sector set to remain the dominant performers.

  • We forecast real headline growth of 6.6% and 6.1% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Lower hydrocarbon prices present no immediate threat to Qatar's infrastructure investments and economic performance. The new Barzan gas development, which is scheduled to come on-stream in 2015, will shore up growth in the hydrocarbon sector throughout the coming quarters.

  • Lower hydrocarbons prices do not present a significant threat to Qatar's fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless, the government will seek to tighten control over public spending and rationalise Qatar's vast pipeline of infrastructure projects - a trend that will be positive for the economy over the longer run.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Given the economy's heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, a pronounced global economic downturn - if it were to translate into a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas - could impact negatively on our forecasts for Qatar's external account position, budget and growth outlook. That said, we highlight that the country's USD256bn sovereign wealth fund - as well as its continuing ability to tap international debt markets - provides the economy with...

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Foreign Policy
8
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
TABLE: WAR OF WORDS
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
TABLE: Economic Activity
14
TABLE: BMI CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST
14
TABLE: ONGOING AND UPCOMING MAJOR PROJECTS
15
Fiscal Policy
17
TABLE: Fiscal Policy
17
Monetary Policy
19
TABLE: Monetary Policy
19
Banking Sector
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Qatari Economy To 2024
23
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: Operational Risk
26
Availability Of Labour
27
TABLE: MENA - Availabilit y of Lab our Ris k
27
TABLE: Top Ten Source Countries for Migrant Workers (2013) ('000)
28
TABLE: Lab our Force Empl oyment By Sect or ('000)
29
Crime Risk
31
TABLE: Crime Statistics
32
TABLE: Middle East and North Africa Crime Ris ks
33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Automotives
35
TABLE: Aut os Total Mar ket - Hist orical Data And Forecasts
36
Food & Drink
40
TABLE: Food Consumpti on Indicat ors - Hist orical Data & Forecasts
40
Other Key Sectors
43
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
43
Table : Pharma Sect or Ke y Indicat ors
44
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
44
Table : Freight Ke y Indicat ors
44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Outlook
45
Deflationary Pressure
45
Table: Global Assumptions
45
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP Growt H, %
46
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
46
Table : Emerging Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %
47

The Qatar Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Qatar. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Qatar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI  Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Qatar's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Qatar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Qatar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Qatar Country Risk Report by BMI  Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Qatar' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Qatar through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Qatar Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Qatar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Qatar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Qatar over the next 5-years?

BMI's Qatar country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Qatar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Qatar.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Qatar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Qatar’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Qatar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Qatar?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Qatar against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Qatar’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Qatar will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Qatar's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.

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