Qatar Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Qatar Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The moratorium on upstream gas projects will limit the overall level of activity in the coming quarters, while work on a small number of enhanced oil recovery and redevelopment projects continues. We expect the fall in crude production to continue, with downside risk to steeper decline rates if enhanced recovery program me s are scaled back due to capex cuts. Qatar's dominance of the liquefied natural gas export market will increasingly be challenged by other producers, but efforts to diversify the economy away from oil and gas will soften the impact.

Headline Forecasts (Qatar 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,057.0 2,044.0 1,953.8 1,963.7 1,957.3 1,954.7 1,954.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 159.5 160.3 165.6 168.9 170.1 171.8 172.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 37.0 38.2 41.1 43.6 45.7 48.0 49.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 314.1 317.3 320.4 320.4 442.2 446.6 451.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 230.0 242.7 254.8 266.2 278.2 289.4 300.9
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:

  • Qatar announced in 2015 that it would invite new bids for al-Shaheen when the current contract expires in mid-2017. In line with an effort to increase state control in the upstream sector will see Qatar seek new international oil companies (IOCs) for a 25-year exploration and production agreement. Though Maersk will be among the firms able to bid, uncertainty over long-term ownership of the field could slow investment in the near-term.

  • We have revised down Qatar's oil production after the Ministry announced that there had been an 8% fall in condensate production and a 6% reduction in crude oil production. Our forecast for 2015 has been revised down from 2.05mn b/d to 1.95 b/d. The Barzan gas project phase 1 which is expected to provide condensates that will prop up crude oil production, has been delayed from starting up in 2015 to H116, helping to slightly boost output to 1.96mn b/d by 2016.

  • Gas production in Qatar will remain relatively flat as LNG exports continue at strong levels and domestic gas consumption, which will see healthy growth as reliance on gas-fired power generation continues, is met by the Barzan project. LNG exports are expected to slightly increase to 104.9bcm in 2016, up from 103bcm in 2015. However LNG exports will have declined by end of our forecast period to 94.7bcm.

  • Qatar is expected to see reduced investment in its oil and gas sector over the coming quarters as it attempts to diversify its economy. The majority of upstream investment in the next three years will focus on oil field redevelopments.

  • The Laffen Refinery 2 (LR-2) condensates refinery is expected to come on stream in Q416 and will have a production capacity of 146,000b/d. In total Qatar's overall crude refining capacity will be 484,700b/d by 2017.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Qatar 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Qatar 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Qatar 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Qatar
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Qatar 2013-2018)
13
Table: Oil Production (Qatar 2019-2024)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Qatar 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (Qatar 2019-2024)
18
Refining
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Qatar 2013-2018)
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Qatar 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Qatar 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Qatar 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Qatar 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Qatar 2019-2024)
26
Table: Qatar Power
28
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Qatar 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Qatar 2019-2024)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Qatar 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Qatar 2019-2024)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Qatar 2013-2018)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Qatar 2019-2024)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Qatar 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Qatar 2019-2024)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
40
Middle East Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
41
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Limited Opportunities Downstream
43
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Qatar - Risk/Reward Index
45
Market Overview
47
Qatar Energy Market Overview
47
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
50
Government Policy
50
International Energy Relations
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Qatar
53
Table: GTL Plants In Qatar
55
LNG Terminals
56
Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar
56
Gas Pipelines
58
Competitive Landscape
59
Competitive Landscape Summary
59
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector
60
Table: Key Upstream Players
60
Table: Key Downstream Player
61
Company Profile
62
ExxonMobil Oil Qatar
62
Qatar Petroleum
65
Royal Dutch Shell
72
Total Qatar
76
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
87
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
87
Oil Production - Low Production Costs Support Expansion
87
Oil Consumption - Downstream Expansion, Subsidies Drive Demand
89
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Advanced Mega Refineries
90
Gas Production - More Gas Needed
92
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
93
Global Industry Overview
95
Global Energy Market Overview
95
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
99
Appendix
101
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
101
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
101
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
102
Middle East - Regional Appendix
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
109
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
109
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
110
Qatar - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
111
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Qatar 2013-2018)
111
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Qatar 2019-2024)
111
Qatar - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Qatar 2013-2018)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Qatar 2019-2024)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Qatar 2013-2018)
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Qatar 2019-2024)
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Qatar 2013-2018)
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Qatar 2019-2024)
117
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Qatar 2013-2018)
118
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Qatar 2019-2024)
119
Glossary
120
Table: Glossary Of Terms
120
Methodology
122
Industry Forecast Methodology
122
Source
124
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
124
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
126
Table: Weighting
127

The Qatar Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Qatar including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Qatar Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Qatari oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Qatar to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Qatari oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Qatari oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Qatar.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.