BMI View: The moratorium on upstream gas projects will limit the overall level of activity in the coming quarters, while work on a small number of enhanced oil recovery and redevelopment projects continues. We expect the fall in crude production to continue, with downside risk to steeper decline rates if enhanced recovery program me s are scaled back due to capex cuts. Qatar's dominance of the liquefied natural gas export market will increasingly be challenged by other producers, but efforts to diversify the economy away from oil and gas will soften the impact.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||2,044.0||1,953.8||1,963.7||1,957.3||1,954.7||1,954.9||1,955.2|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||160.3||165.6||168.9||170.1||171.8||172.7||173.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||38.2||41.1||43.6||45.7||48.0||49.9||51.9|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||317.3||320.4||320.4||442.2||446.6||451.1||451.1|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||242.7||258.4||272.6||284.9||296.3||308.2||320.5|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:
Qatar announced in 2015 that it would invite new bids for al-Shaheen when the current contract expires in mid-2017. In line with an effort to increase state control in the upstream sector will see Qatar seek new international oil companies (IOCs) for a 25-year exploration and production agreement. Though Maersk will be among the firms able to bid, uncertainty over long-term ownership of the field could slow investment in the near-term.
Gas production in Qatar will remain relatively flat as LNG exports continue at strong levels and domestic gas consumption, which will see healthy growth as reliance on gas-fired power generation continues, is met by the Barzan project. LNG exports are expected to slightly increase to 104.9bcm in 2016, up from 103bcm in 2015. However LNG exports will have declined by end of our forecast period to 94.7bcm.
Post-2016 Qatar does not have any new LNG contracts coming into force and with 30.1bcm of contracts rolling off in the next ten years, will have to start negotiating new contracts to secure long-term offtake. Despite the demand weakness in South Korea and Japan, we expect Asia to remain the dominant consumer of LNG, driven by strong growth in emerging markets such as China and India. As such, it will remain a key target for Qatar.
Qatar is expected to see reduced investment in its oil and gas sector over the coming quarters as it attempts to diversify its economy. The majority of upstream investment in the next three years will focus on oil field redevelopments.
The Laffen Refinery 2 (LR-2) condensates refinery is expected to come on stream in Q416 and will have a production capacity of 146,000b/d. In total Qatar's overall crude refining capacity will be 484,700b/d by 2017.
Fuel subsidies were reduced in January 2016, increasing the price for one litre of regular gasoline from one Qatari riyal to 1.30 riyals. While the price increase is a substantial 30%, the cost of gasoline is still very low at around 35 cents per litre and we believe will only have a marginal negative effect on consumption. The subsidies reduction goes beyond fiscal relief and is driven by a genuine desire to use resources more efficiently within the Emirate.
The Qatar Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Qatar including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Qatar Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Qatari oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Qatar to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Qatari oil and gas market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.