BMI View: The moratorium on upstream gas projects will limit the overall level of activity in the coming quarters, while work on a small number of enhanced oil recovery and redevelopment projects continues. We expect the fall in crude production to continue, with downside risk to steeper decline rates if enhanced recovery program me s are scaled back due to capex cuts. Qatar's dominance of the liquefied natural gas export market will increasingly be challenged by other producers, but efforts to diversify the economy away from oil and gas will soften the impact.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||2,044.4||1,954.2||1,964.1||1,940.4||1,937.8||1,938.0||1,938.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||317.2||320.3||368.4||445.7||450.2||454.7||454.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||304.0||324.0||335.3||345.4||355.8||366.4||377.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||174.1||180.9||177.3||187.1||190.3||186.3||182.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||38.9||45.1||49.6||58.0||60.9||60.9||61.0|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Qatar has joined fellow OPEC members is curtailing production in H116 in order to shift the global glut of crude and bring higher, more stable prices. Qatar has committed to cut 30,000 b/d of output which has lead us to downgrade overall production by 15,000 b/d in 2017.
Qatar has delayed the start up of the Barzan gas project again after discovering a leak in the gas pipeline. We have adjusted our forecast accordingly pushing the start up of phase one into 2017 and further delaying the second phase into late 2017.
Qatar Petroleum (QP) has announced the integration of RasGas and Qatargas the two state-owned gas producers. The two entities will operate under the name 'Qatargas' with the transition aiming to be complete by the end of 2017. The benefits brought by integrating the two companies should in theory include cost reductions and improved efficiency and greater financing abilities. Combined, these will put Qatargas in a better position to perform in a market that will be increasingly competitive over the coming years.
Post-2016, Qatar does not have any new liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts coming into force and, with 30.1bcm of contracts rolling off in the next ten years, it will have to start negotiating new contracts to secure long-term offtake. Despite the demand weakness in South Korea and Japan, we expect Asia to remain the dominant consumer of LNG, driven by strong growth in emerging markets such as China and India. As such, it will remain a key target for Qatar.
Increased domestic processing of condensates will lead to condensate exports falling by 30.0%. Qatar's exports around 460,000 b/d of condensates in the form of its two flagship condensate grades: the Deodorized Field Condensate (DFC) and the Qatar Low Sulphur Condensate (LSC). The Laffan Refinery will primarily use DFC as it is the more popular feedstock for condensate splitters, leading to a decline in DFC exports from 329,000b/d to 192,000b/d by 2017.
The Qatar Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Qatar including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
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A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
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Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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