BMI View: The moratorium on upstream gas projects will limit the overall level of activity in the coming quarters, while work on a small number of enhanced oil recovery and redevelopment projects continues. We expect the fall in crude production to continue, with downside risk to steeper decline rates if enhanced recovery program me s are scaled back due to capex cuts. Qatar's dominance of the liquefied natural gas export market will increasingly be challenged by other producers, but efforts to diversify the economy away from oil and gas will soften the impact.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||2,044.4||1,954.2||1,964.1||1,957.7||1,955.1||1,955.2||1,955.6|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||317.2||320.3||368.4||445.7||450.2||454.7||454.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||304.0||324.0||335.3||345.4||355.8||366.4||377.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||174.1||180.9||180.4||185.9||190.3||186.3||182.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||38.9||45.1||50.9||58.1||61.0||61.0||61.1|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:
Total has won the retendering of the Al Shaheen oil field and will take over from Mearsk Oil in July 2017. Qatar Petroleum is aiming to lift the crude output from 300,000b/d to 500,000b/d, in what is Qatar's largest oil field.
The first phase of the delayed Barzan gas project came online in 2016, with the second phase scheduled for 2017, supplying a combined 22bcm of natural gas to Qatar's domestic market.
A revision of our historical data has led us to increase Qatar's gas consumption over the last five years. Demand in 2015 has been increased to 45bcm rather than the 36.6bcm we previously estimated. Natural gas consumption will grow aggressively over the few years as the Barzan gas project feeds into domestic industries taking overall demand from 45.1bcm in 2015 to 61bcm in 2018.
Post-2016, Qatar does not have any new liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts coming into force and, with 30.1bcm of contracts rolling off in the next ten years, it will have to start negotiating new contracts to secure long-term offtake. Despite the demand weakness in South Korea and Japan, we expect Asia to remain the dominant consumer of LNG, driven by strong growth in emerging markets such as China and India. As such, it will remain a key target for Qatar.
Qatar is expected to see reduced investment in its oil and gas sector over the coming quarters as it attempts to diversify its economy. The majority of upstream investment in the next three years will focus on oil field redevelopments. Qatar is boosting its downstream presence by doubling capacity with the second Laffan Refinery coming online in Q416. Gas-to-liquids plants will remain a core part of Qatar's refining capacity. No further downstream growth is expected before 2025.
Increased domestic processing of condensates will lead to condensate exports falling by 30.0%. Qatar's exports around 460,000 b/d of condensates in the form of its two flagship condensate grades: the Deodorized Field Condensate (DFC) and the Qatar Low Sulphur Condensate (LSC). The Laffan Refinery will primarily use DFC as it is the more popular feedstock for condensate splitters, leading to a decline in DFC exports from 329,000b/d to 192,000b/d by 2017.
The Qatar Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Qatar including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Qatar Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Qatari oil and gas industry.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
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Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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