BMI View: Qatar's pharmaceuticals and healthcare sectors will continue to grow despite challenges facing the government's revenue streams. Both an increase in public spending on health, including in infrastructure projects, and the rising participation of the private sector in healthcare funding will sustain robust sector growth over the forecast period . In fact, w hile Qatar will likely remain on track with its development objectives to become a major healthcare player in the region , the rising demand for healthcare, which is in part driven by the growing prevalence of chronic diseases, will support renewed opportunities for drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: QAR1.91bn (USD524mn) in 2015 to QAR2.04bn (USD559mn) in 2016; +6.8% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast unchang ed from last quarter .
Healthcare: QAR18.49bn (USD5.08bn) in 2015 to QAR19.85bn (USD5.45bn) in 2016; +7.3% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards from last quarter .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.491||0.524||0.559||0.596||0.634||0.673||0.714|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.23||0.28||0.27||0.26||0.26||0.25||0.24|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.4||10.3||10.3||10.2||10.1||9.9||9.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.737||5.079||5.451||5.856||6.294||6.768||7.282|
In Q216, we have revised downwards Qatar's Risk/Reward Index score to 53.6 from 55.5 previously (out of 100). Qatar's score revision was mainly driven by lower industry and country rewards indices. Qatar shifted down one ranking position to fifth out of 31 markets in the Middle East and Africa region in terms of attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. Qatar's score is driven by high spending per capita on medicine and high sector value growth, but is dragged down by a small market size and a small pensionable population.
Despite cutbacks to other sectors in the Qatari government's 2016 budget, healthcare spending is set to rise to QAR16.4bn (USD4.5bn) in the same year, up from QAR15.5bn (USD4.2bn) in 2015, while several healthcare capital projects have been highlighted by the government, such as increased funding to the Sidra Medical and Research Center, the set up of five new health centres and a cancer treatment centre, and the completion of Hamad General Hospital and Hamad Medical City.
According to Qatar's Supreme Council of Health annual report, 11 new hospitals and medical research facilities are anticipated to be established in the country by 2022, including the USD635mn Hamad Bin Khalifa Medical City.
Against this background, and rising healthcare spending figures, the Supreme Council of Health confirmed that Qatar's National Health Strategy 2011-2016 is on track to achieve the health objectives set in the National Vision 2030, which confirms Qatar's increased focus on healthcare and in achieving its aim of becoming a major healthcare player in the region.
In December 2015, Qatar's Supreme Council of Health announced that the National Health Insurance (Seha) will be phased out through H116 and substituted by coverage provided by private insurers, with tenders for private insurance companies starting in February 2016 and the new system operational by June 2016.
Qatar's new National Health Strategy 2017-2022 is expected to be announced in June 2016 and will focus on providing healthcare through the private insurance system to the country's large population of blue-collar expats, including more free medical testing, health education and medicines to this population segment over the coming years (Doha News).
BMI Economic View
The performance of the Qatari economy will be more mixed than in recent years, amid the intertwined pressures of the global energy slump and tightening domestic liquidity. We forecast real economic growth of 5.0% this year and 4.8% in 2017, driven mainly by strong growth in the primary and secondary sectors.
BMI Political View
A shift in Qatar's foreign policy, the erosion of vested interests at home, and the sidelining of older political figures - combined with the long-running internal rivalries of the al-Thani family - could in theory threaten Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani's grip on power. However, Tamim has successfully consolidated his power, and we do not view his removal as likely.
The Qatar Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Qatar Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Qatar pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Qatar, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Qatari pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Qatari pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Qatar.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.