BMI View: Rising demand for healthcare, as well as public and private investment in healthcare infrastructure, will translate to commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical and healthcare operators in Qatar over the forecast period. However, we highlight a deceleration in the pace of government investment in healthcare capital projects as authorities will instead prioritise infrastructure projects related to the FIFA 2022 World Cup. Moreover, Qatar ' s government will attempt to contain buoyant healthcare costs through the promotion of a greater role by private health insurance providers in the health system, aside from the recent downward price revision for several drug segments in an attempt to harmonise drug prices across the Gulf Cooperation Council bloc .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: QAR1.91bn (USD524mn) in 2015 to QAR2.03bn (USD557mn) in 2016; +6.4% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with last quarter .
Healthcare: QAR17.55bn (USD4.82bn) in 2015 to QAR18.54bn (USD5.09bn) in 2016; +5.7% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.490||0.520||0.560||0.590||0.630||0.670||0.710|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.23||0.34||0.36||0.31||0.29||0.28||0.26|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.8||10.9||10.9||11.0||11.0||11.0||10.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.570||4.820||5.090||5.390||5.730||6.090||6.500|
In Q316, we have revised downwards Qatar's Risk/Reward Index score to 52.4 from 53.6 in the last quarter (out of 100). Qatar's score was revised mainly due to lower sector value growth indices. Qatar shifted down one ranking position to sixth out of 31 countries monitored in the Middle East and Africa region in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. Qatar's score is driven by high spending per capita on medicine and high sector value growth, but is dragged down by a small market size and a small pensionable population.
In June 2016, Qatar's Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) announced that the launch of the new health insurance scheme - which is aimed at increasing the role of private insurers in the health system - will be postponed from mid-2016 to 2017.
In May 2016, Qatar's Public Works Authority (Ashghal) announced that it would award contracts for the construction of only three healthcare centres in Qatar, compared to the seven that had previously been planned for the current year. As such, Ashghal will spend around QAR2.5bn (USD687mn) on the construction of new primary health facilities in 2016, down from the previously planned allocation of QAR7.0bn (USD1.9bn).
In April 2016, the prices of 400 medicines were reduced by an average of over 26% in the third and latest phase of the price cut plan carried out over the last two years in Qatar, a trend that will continue to draw more customers to private pharmacies.
BMI Economic View
Like other GCC states, Qatar has entered a protracted period of slower economic growth, as low hydrocarbon prices impact business confidence, domestic liquidity, and government spending. Nevertheless, Qatar will withstand the ongoing slump in the oil market better than its neighbours, on the back of ongoing massive investments in infrastructure projects for the FIFA 2022 World Cup.
BMI Political View
Qatar will face increasing international criticism over the coming years, as reports of workers' abuse tarnish the emirate's reputation. Nevertheless, the organisation of the 2022 football World Cup in the country is not at risk, ensuring that major infrastructure projects remain on track.
The Qatar Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Qatar Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Qatar pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Qatar, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Qatari pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Qatari pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Qatar.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.