BMI View: We expect Romania ' s defence budget to increase , both in absolute terms and as a share of GDP , in the next five years. This growth will be driven by the rising tensions in the Black Sea region, as Russia ' s increasingly aggressive stance in Ukraine and Moldova is prompting Romania to speed up the process of modernisation of its armed forces. M odernisation will initially focus on new equipment and strengthening of capabilities for the army; creating opportunities for local suppliers, which manufacture a range of equipment in the ground segment. Over the longer term, we expect to see procurement of more technologically advanced equipment in other segments, such as aircraft, which will allow foreign companies to capture a greater share of the market.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, NATO|
|Defence expenditure, USDmn||2,425.0||2,919.1||3,202.4||3,596.3||4,024.5||4,358.1|
|Defence expenditure, USD, % y-o-y||-10.9||20.4||9.7||12.3||11.9||8.3|
|Defence expenditure, % of GDP||1.5||1.8||1.8||1.8||1.8||1.8|
Russia's aggressive stance on Ukraine, as well as its position on the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, are raising security concerns in Romania. This situation, coupled with Bucharest's recent pledge to strengthen the capabilities of Romania's armed forces, will drive an increase in the country's defence spending over the coming years. We expect Romanian defence expenditure to rise to USD2.9bn in 2016. This will bring the defence budget back to pre-financial crisis levels, representing a 1.8% share of GDP (compared to 1.5% in 2015).
Amid increasing regional tensions, the Romanian defence minister announced in July 2015 that the government is considering reinstating conscription. This would follow a trend that has been emerging in the wider region (Lithuania and the Czech Republic have announced they will reinstate conscription). The proposal suggests an introduction of voluntary military internships that would last for a period of six months, in a move to encourage Romanian youth to join the armed forces.
On November 17 2015 , Airbus Helicopters Romania broke ground on its new factory in Brasov, which will be hosting the production of the H215 helicopter, from procurement stage to design and after-sales. The H215 is a new and improved version of the AS332 C1e/L1e model. The first helicopter produced in this factory is scheduled for completion in 2017.
On December 9 2015, UK Prime Minister David Cameron made his first official visit to Romania. During this visit, Cameron discussed with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis the potential for the two countries to strengthen their strategic partnership in the field of defence and security through military cooperation.
Hungary's threat to build a fence along its border with Romania amid the migrant crisis has sparked tension between the two states in recent months. That said, with both countries NATO and EU members, we expect this tension to result in a cooling of bilateral relations, rather than armed conflict.
The Romania Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Romania Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Romanian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Romanian defence and security market.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
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- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure
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