BMI View: The outlook for Romania's construction sector over the coming five years is more positive than the previous; we now forecast real growth of 3.9% y-o-y in 2015, followed by 4.2% in 2016. The acceleration in growth comes on the back of a more expansionary government expenditure and funding from the EU. However, after working hard to reduce the budget deficit, this expansion of fiscal spending will threaten Rom ania's fiscal position and dama ge the country's ability to get support from the IMF and increase the cost of future borrowing. This sees our forecasts for growth in the sector to slow from 2020.
Key Trends And Developments
The transport masterplan was published in November 2014 and it revealed that the country needs to invest about EUR50bn (USD61.97bn) through to 2030 to enhance and expand its transport infrastructure. The European Commission (EC) will provide funds worth EUR6.8bn (USD7.21bn) until 2020 for infrastructure projects included in the Transport Masterplan of Romania. The EU will fund 25% of the cost of the plan, while the Romanian government will cover 15%, with the remainder being secured from loans from the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Nuclear power will be key to driving Romania's energy sector given the prospect of massive Chinese and Canadian investment in the second half of the decade. Renewables will also continue to play an important role, although the scaling back of the government's support will slow investment.
We continue to highlight the improving environment for the residential sector while recovery for the non-residential building sector remains less secure. There are signs that the residential sector is recovering and in 2015/16 we expect the demand within the sector to grow. BMI's new residential building forecasts see real growth of 3.9% in 2015, while the non-residential building segment will grow by 4.5% in real terms.
The Romania Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Romania Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romanian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Romanian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.