BMI View: The expansion of Romania's mining sector will be sluggish over the next few years as a declining coal industry and local opposition to mining projects limits potential growth in minerals output. Good news on the horizon is Eldorado Gold's Certej gold mine, which is set to come online from 2016.
Romania has significant mineral reserves with the country boasting some of the largest coal and gold deposits in Europe. Production levels are among the highest in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), however, growth is slowing due to a combination of factors including falling coal grades, compliance EU carbon emissions targets and opposition to mining activity at both a community and government level.
In particular the production of Brown coal, also known as lignite, is set to decrease gradually through our forecast period to end-2019 as EU CO2 emissions legislation forces the government to reduce the contribution of coal-fired power plants to the country's energy mix. Total coal production has halved over the past two decades and is expected to continue its decline over the long term as mines and coal-fired plants are gradually taken out of service. That said, there is some interest in the country's coal-mining facilities from foreign investors, including those from China and the US.
|Modest Growth Prospects|
|Romania: Mining Industry Value & Production Growth Forecasts|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: USGS, BMI|
The outlook for Romania's gold-mining sub-sector is more positive. Mining activity is scheduled to begin in 2016 at Certej mine in the western region of the country, eventually adding as much as 140,000 metric tonnes of additional production capacity over the next few years. 80% of the mine is owned by Canada's Eldorado Gold with the remaining stake held by the Romanian government. A positive feasibility study was completed at the mine in June 2015. However, the Rosia Montana gold mine, which promised to be the largest of its kind in Europe, will now be shelved indefinitely due to the success of environmental lobbies in blocking the project. In November 2013, a special parliamentary commission rejected a draft bill that would have allowed Canadian firm, Gabriel Resources, to proceed with plans to bring the Rosia Montana gold mine to production.
The Romania Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Romania Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Romania.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.