Romania Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Romania Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Investment into E&P is waning as major offshore drilling programmes have concluded, though field redevelopment p rojects continue over the short term. Refinery output demand and fuels demand have both improved on the back of lower oil price s .

Headline Forecasts (Romania 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 89.2 88.0 85.3 84.9 81.7 78.9 75.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.9 12.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 208.1 210.8 202.4 200.7 200.3 201.3 203.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 188.1 195.4 196.2 196.0 194.9 194.3 195.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments for Romania's oil and gas sector are:

  • The conclusion of the ExxonMobil/ OMV Neptun Block drilling programme should support a final investment decision on the Domino project in 2016. Early indications are expecting an increase in potential resources above the 42-84bcm initial estimate. As of May 2016, there is no further information on hypothetical development plans. Lukoil is due to follow up its estimated 30bcm gas discovery at the Lira-1X well with an appraisal in 2016.

  • OMV Petrom is continuing its 12 field redevelopment programme to mitigate production decline though it has only committed to a further four new projects to 2017.

  • Oil output dropped slightly to around 78,830b/d over 2015 and we forecast production to remain relatively stable over the coming two years before falling past 2018.

  • Romania has increased refined product exports over 2014-2015, with strong refining margins supporting increased output. Strong domestic consumption however has prevented a stronger refined products export surge over 2015.

  • Imports of crude oil remained stable over 2015 and we expect this to remain stable over the coming years given our forecast for steady refined products output.

  • After strong consumption growth over 2014 and 2015, we anticipate a stagnation in consumption over the coming years as the Romanian economy becomes more efficient and energy-intensive industries reduce usage.

  • Industrial gas customers have entered the free market as of January 1 2015. Full liberalisation of the gas market including households has been postponed to July 2021.

  • In May 2016 Chinese company China Energy Company Limited (CEFC) became the majority shareholder in Dutch-based oil & gas group KMG International, with 51% of stakes going to CEFC and KMG detaining the remaining 49%. The company holds the Petromidia refinery, the largest in the country.

  • The National Agency for Mineral Resources (ANRM) is lining up a new oil and gas tender, offering 28 onshore blocks and eight offshore Black Sea blocks. Preparation for the documentation for the tender is in progress, though no timeframe has been outlined as to when it may take place.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Romania 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Romania Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Oil Production (Romania 2014-2019)
18
Table: Oil Production (Romania 2020-2025)
18
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Gas Production (Romania 2014-2019)
21
Table: Gas Production (Romania 2020-2025)
21
Refining
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Romania 2014-2019)
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Romania 2020-2025)
25
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Romania 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Romania 2020-2025)
28
Gas Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Romania 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Romania 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Oil
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Crude Oil
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019)
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025)
34
Refined Products
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025)
38
Industry Risk/Reward Index
39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
39
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
43
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Romania Risk/Reward Index
47
Romania Upstream Index
47
Romania Downstream Index
48
Market Overview
49
Romania Energy Market Overview
49
Licensing And Regulation
49
Fiscal Regime
49
Table: Key Tax Rates Of Romanian Oil And Gas
49
Government Policy
50
Licensing Rounds
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries In Romania
51
Service Stations
52
Oil Terminals
52
Oil Pipelines
52
Gas Storage
53
Gas Pipelines
53
Table: International Natural Gas Pipelines
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - Romania Oil & Gas Sector
56
Table: Key Upstream Players
56
Table: Key Downstream Players
56
Company Profile
57
OMV Petrom
57
Latest Updates
57
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Romania
58
Table: Key Financial Data (RONmn)
58
Lukoil
59
Latest Updates
59
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Romania
60
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
60
Regional Overview
61
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
61
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
61
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
62
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
63
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
64
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
65
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
66
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
67
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Source
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
75
Table: Weighting
76

The Romania Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Romania including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romanian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Romania to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.