BMI View: Investment into E&P is waning as major offshore drilling programmes have concluded, though field redevelopment p rojects continue over the short term. Refinery output demand and fuels demand have both improved on the back of lower oil price s .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, JODI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||89.2||88.0||85.3||84.9||81.7||78.9||75.5|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||9.6||9.7||9.6||9.4||9.2||8.9||12.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||11.5||11.4||11.3||11.3||11.4||11.5||11.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||208.1||210.8||202.4||200.7||200.3||201.3||203.3|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||188.1||195.4||196.2||196.0||194.9||194.3||195.6|
The main trends and developments for Romania's oil and gas sector are:
The conclusion of the ExxonMobil/ OMV Neptun Block drilling programme should support a final investment decision on the Domino project in 2016. Early indications are expecting an increase in potential resources above the 42-84bcm initial estimate. As of May 2016, there is no further information on hypothetical development plans. Lukoil is due to follow up its estimated 30bcm gas discovery at the Lira-1X well with an appraisal in 2016.
OMV Petrom is continuing its 12 field redevelopment programme to mitigate production decline though it has only committed to a further four new projects to 2017.
Oil output dropped slightly to around 78,830b/d over 2015 and we forecast production to remain relatively stable over the coming two years before falling past 2018.
Romania has increased refined product exports over 2014-2015, with strong refining margins supporting increased output. Strong domestic consumption however has prevented a stronger refined products export surge over 2015.
Imports of crude oil remained stable over 2015 and we expect this to remain stable over the coming years given our forecast for steady refined products output.
After strong consumption growth over 2014 and 2015, we anticipate a stagnation in consumption over the coming years as the Romanian economy becomes more efficient and energy-intensive industries reduce usage.
Industrial gas customers have entered the free market as of January 1 2015. Full liberalisation of the gas market including households has been postponed to July 2021.
In May 2016 Chinese company China Energy Company Limited (CEFC) became the majority shareholder in Dutch-based oil & gas group KMG International, with 51% of stakes going to CEFC and KMG detaining the remaining 49%. The company holds the Petromidia refinery, the largest in the country.
The National Agency for Mineral Resources (ANRM) is lining up a new oil and gas tender, offering 28 onshore blocks and eight offshore Black Sea blocks. Preparation for the documentation for the tender is in progress, though no timeframe has been outlined as to when it may take place.
The Romania Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Romania including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Romania Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romanian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Romania to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian oil and gas market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.