Romania Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Romania Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Investment into E&P is waning as major offshore drilling programmes have concluded, though field redevelopment p rojects continue over the short term. Refinery output demand and fuels demand have both improved on the back of lower oil price s .

Headline Forecasts (Romania 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 89.2 88.0 85.3 84.9 81.7 78.9 75.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.9 12.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 208.1 210.8 202.4 200.7 200.3 201.3 203.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 188.1 195.4 196.2 196.0 194.9 194.3 195.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments for Romania's oil and gas sector are:

  • The conclusion of the ExxonMobil/ OMV Neptun Block drilling programme should support a final investment decision on the Domino project in 2016. Early indications are expecting an increase in potential resources above the 42-84bcm initial estimate.

  • Lukoil is due to follow up its estimated 30bcm gas discovery at the Lira-1X well with an appraisal in 2016.

  • OMV Petrom is continuing its 12 field redevelopment programme to mitigate production decline though it has only committed to a further four new projects to 2017.

  • We forecast crude oil production to fall 1.5% in 2015 and 3.4% in 2016.

  • Crude oil imports increased around 3.8% to October 2015 due to weaker production and increased refinery throughput.

  • Romania's refiners benefited from higher margins over 2015, with refined products production up around 1.5% on 2014.

  • Fuels demand has increased 3.8% y-o-y through October 2015, with demand for diesel particularly strong.

  • Industrial gas customers have entered the free market as of January 1 2015. Full liberalisation of the gas market including households has been postponed to July 2021.

  • China Peace Petroleum is reportedly interested in purchasing Lukoil's Poliesti refinery.

  • The National Agency for Mineral Resources (ANRM) is lining up a new oil and gas tender, offering 28 onshore blocks and eight offshore Black Sea blocks. Preparation for the documentation for the tender is in progress, though no timeframe has been outlined as to when it may take place.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Romania 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Romania Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Romania 2014-2019)
16
Table: Oil Production (Romania 2020-2025)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Gas Production (Romania 2014-2019)
19
Table: Gas Production (Romania 2020-2025)
19
Refining
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Romania 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Romania 2020-2025)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Romania 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Romania 2020-2025)
26
Gas Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Romania 2014-2019)
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Romania 2020-2025)
29
Trade - Oil
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Romania 2014-2020)
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Romania 2014-2019)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Romania 2020-2025)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025)
38
Industry Risk/Reward Index
39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
39
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
41
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
44
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Romania Risk/Reward Index
48
Romania Upstream Index
48
Romania Downstream Index
49
Market Overview
50
Romania Energy Market Overview
50
Licensing And Regulation
50
Fiscal Regime
50
Table: Key Tax Rates Of Romanian Oil And Gas
50
Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Refineries In Romania
52
Service Stations
53
Oil Terminals
53
Oil Pipelines
54
Gas Storage
54
Gas Pipelines
54
Table: International Natural Gas Pipelines
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Competitive Landscape Summary
55
Table: Key Players - Romania Oil & Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
OMV Petrom
58
Table: OMV FRD Programme
59
Romgaz
64
Lukoil
68
Rompetrol
71
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
79
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
79
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
79
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
80
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
81
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
82
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
83
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
84
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
85
Glossary
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Source
91
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
91
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
93
Table: Weighting
94

The Romania Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Romania including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romanian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Romania to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.