BMI View: Consumer healthcare will be a key growth sector in the Romanian pharmaceutical market - supported by strong patient demand and the expansion of pharmacies in the country. This comes as the sector is supported by positive pricing and advertising regulations in the country, thus allowing firms to leverage upon the expansion of pharmacies as well as the trend of self medication among younger patients. Household incomes are also expected to rise in line with Romania's economic outperformance in Europe, further buoying OTC drug sales, but also supporting wider pharmaceutical sector.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: RON14.19bn (USD4.28bn) in 2014 to RON14.94bn (USD3.67bn) in 2015; +5.3% in local currency terms and -14.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 15.
Healthcare: RON35.40bn (USD10.68bn) in 2014 to RON37.08bn (USD9.10bn) in 2015; +4.7% in local currency terms and -14.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 15 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.139||4.283||3.669||3.771||4.105||4.621||5.178|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.17||2.13||2.31||2.38||2.42||2.43||2.43|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||41.3||40.1||40.3||40.5||40.6||40.4||40.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||10.023||10.685||9.105||9.300||10.116||11.433||12.929|
Romania has a BMI Risk & Reward Index (RRI) score of 56.2 out of 100, making it the third-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. Romania's rank has stabilised at fourth position since Q215, but this has been primarily due to a deterioration in the outlook for other closely-ranked CEE countries, rather than due to a significant improvement for the pharmaceutical sector in Romania.
Key Trends And Developments
US-based private equity firm Advent International plans to sell its 80% stake in Romanian private healthcare network Regina Maria; UK-based private equity fund Mid Europa Partners and Turkish healthcare firm Acibadem are the remaining two bidders in the sale process, reports Ziarul Financiar, August 2015.
Romanian health services group Polisano plans to increase its pharmacy network of 101 location to 300 locations in 2018, after the company had posted a turnover of EUR380mn (USD432.71mn) in 2014 (Romania-Insider.com).
Romanian healthcare company Gral Medical registered a 12% y-o-y increase in turnover to reach EUR12mn (USD13.67mn) in H115, as one of the company's hospitals, OncoFort, has reported a 30% increase in revenues in H115 and the centres outside capital Bucharest saw a 35% rise in revenues y-o-y, reports Romania-Insider.com.
BMI Economic View
Planned VAT cuts will ensure that disinflationary pressures persist for longer in Romania than regional peers. However, the central bank will refrain from cutting rates below the current 1.75% level in 2016, due to strong underlying domestic demand and the risks of the economy overheating with further cuts.
BMI Political View
Romania's notoriously poor EU fund absorption rate will improve notably in the years ahead, providing a modest boost to long-term economic growth and convergence with more developed EU peers. Nevertheless, institutional inefficiencies and Romania's nascent level of development will prevent it repeating Poland's unrivalled success in utilising EU funds.
The Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Romania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.