Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 18 May 2015

  • 119 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: We expect growth in pharmaceutical sales in 2015 to be primarily driven by Romania's improving macroeconomic outlook and a positive consumer story. We note that local regulatory factors such as revenue taxes will continue to present obstacles to growth. Rising clawback taxes and continued price cuts will be negative for the prescription drugs, hurting Romania's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: RON14.17bn (USD4.28bn) in 2014 to RON14.75bn (USD3.62bn) in 2015; +4.1% in local currency terms and -15.3% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: RON34.69bn (USD10.47bn) in 2014 to RON36.38bn (USD8.93bn) in 2015; +4.9% in local currency terms and -14.7% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Romania has a BMI Risk & Reward Index (RRI) score of 56.2 out of 100, making it the fourth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. Romania has risen two places on our RRI since Q215, but this has been primarily due to a deterioration in the outlook for other closely-ranked CEE countries than due to a significant improvement for the pharmaceutical sector in Romania.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In April 2015, Romania's National Agency for Medicines and Medical Devices President Marius Savu announced that prices of over 1,000 prescription medicines could be cut by 20% following an update of prices in the National Catalogue of Medicines. The new national catalogue, which is currently under public debate, could be effective from June 2015. About 40 new innovative drugs would be added to the updated catalogue. Further, the new list will update foreign exchange rate used for calculating drug prices.

  • In March 2015, the US industry body Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association of America released its Special 301 Report on global concerns, highlighting the chronic underfunding of the healthcare system, barriers to market access, pharmaceutical pricing and...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
23
Generic Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Romania 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Romania 2013-2019)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Economic Activity (Romania 2010-2019)
38
Table: Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
39
Romania Risk/Reward Index
45
Rewards
45
Risks
46
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Table: Romanian Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
52
Healthcare System
55
Private Healthcare Provision
56
Healthcare Reform
57
Table: Healthcare Resources (Romania 2009-2014)
58
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Romania 2009-2014)
58
Table: Healthcare Activity (Romania 2009-2014)
59
Research And Development (R&D)
60
Clinical Trials
60
Regulatory Development
62
Pharmaceutical Advertising
62
Intellectual Property Regime
63
PhRMA Special 301 Submission
63
Corruption
66
Pricing Regime
67
Reimbursement Regime
68
Competitive Landscape
73
Pharmaceutical Sector
73
Generic Drugmakers
73
Research-Based Industry
74
Table: Members Of ARPIM, 2013
74
Pharmaceutical Company Developments
75
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
75
Pharmaceutical Retail
75
Company Profile
77
Actavis
77
Antibiotice Iasi
80
GlaxoSmithKline
83
Krka
86
LaborMed Pharma
88
Merck & Co
90
Novartis
92
Pfizer
94
Roche
97
Sanofi
99
Terapia Ranbaxy
101
Zentiva
104
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Romania 1990-2025)
108
Table: Key Population Ratios (Romania 1990-2025)
108
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Romania 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group (Romania 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group % (Romania 1990-2025)
110
Glossary
112
Methodology
114
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
114
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
114
Notes On Methodology
115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
116
Index Overview
117
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
117
Indicator Weightings
118

The Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Romania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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