BMI View: In line with Romania's economic outperformance in Europe, the country's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will see strong growth given increased consumer spending power and higher healthcare contributions. However, aggressive drug pricing regulations and cross-border negotiations on medicine pricing and procurement will limit revenue-earning opportunities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: RON14.94bn (USD3.73bn) in 2015 to RON15.90bn (USD3.80bn) in 2016; 6.4% in local currency terms and 1.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: RON38.83bn (USD9.69bn) in 2015 to RON40.83bn (USD9.76bn) in 2016; 5.2% in local currency terms and 0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: World Health Organization (WHO), National Health Insurance Fund (CNAS), AESGP, Cegedim, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.237||3.731||3.800||4.086||4.336||4.628||5.066|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.12||2.10||2.14||2.19||2.21||2.23||2.26|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||38.2||38.5||38.9||39.4||40.0||40.5||41.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||11.093||9.695||9.760||10.359||10.845||11.426||12.362|
In our Q117 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Romania has fallen four places to eighth out of 21 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix due to a reduced score of 54.9 compared with the previous quarter (58.5). Romania scores considerably above the regional average score of 51.1 in Q117. While a positive outlook for growth in the country's pharmaceutical market results in a strong Industry Reward score, the country's continued presence on PhRMA's Special 301 Report and its medicine pricing legislation highlights the challenging environment faced by innovative drugmakers in the country.
In November 2016, the Ministers of Health for Bulgaria and Romania signed the Cooperation Agreement, which will enable joint negotiation on medicine prices for orphan diseases.
In November 2016, Minister of Health Vlad Voiculescu admitted the government has no money to fund the 'massive investment' needed in health infrastructure, and highlighted the potential for public-private partnerships to generate sufficient funds.
In October 2016, the government approved a number of amendments to the country's medicine legislation, focussing on changes to pricing for off-patent and essential medicines.
BMI Economic View
While continuing to outpace regional averages, real GDP growth in Romania will slow in 2017 on account of tighter monetary and fiscal policy, a negative contribution from net exports, and weaker investment. Strong wage growth will keep private consumption growing at a healthy clip, but poses long-term risks if not met with strong productivity gains.
BMI Political View
Neither of Romania's two main parties is likely to win a governing majority at the upcoming election in December, leading to the formation of a coalition with smaller parties. Irrespective of the result, fiscal consolidation will be a top priority for the new government in 2017.
The Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Romania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.