Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Consumer healthcare will be a key growth sector in the Romanian pharmaceutical market - supported by strong patient demand and the expansion of pharmacies in the country. This comes as the sector is supported by positive pricing and advertising regulations in the country, thus allowing firms to leverage upon the expansion of pharmacies as well as the trend of self medication among younger patients. Household incomes are also expected to rise in line with Romania's economic outperformance in Europe, further buoying OTC drug sales, but also supporting wider pharmaceutical sector.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: RON14.19bn (USD4.28bn) in 2014 to RON14.94bn (USD3.67bn) in 2015; +5.3% in local currency terms and -14.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 15.

  • Healthcare: RON35.40bn (USD10.68bn) in 2014 to RON37.08bn (USD9.10bn) in 2015; +4.7% in local currency terms and -14.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 15 .

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Romania 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 4.139 4.283 3.669 3.771 4.105 4.621 5.178
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.17 2.13 2.31 2.38 2.42 2.43 2.43
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 41.3 40.1 40.3 40.5 40.6 40.4 40.1
Health spending, USDbn 10.023 10.685 9.105 9.300 10.116 11.433 12.929

Risk/Reward Index

Romania has a BMI Risk & Reward Index (RRI) score of 56.2 out of 100, making it the third-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. Romania's rank has stabilised at fourth position since Q215, but this has been primarily due to a deterioration in the outlook for other closely-ranked CEE countries, rather than due to a significant improvement for the pharmaceutical sector in Romania.

Key Trends And Developments

  • US-based private equity firm Advent International plans to sell its 80% stake in Romanian private healthcare network Regina Maria; UK-based private equity fund Mid Europa Partners and Turkish healthcare firm Acibadem are the remaining two bidders in the sale process, reports Ziarul Financiar, August 2015.

  • Romanian health services group Polisano plans to increase its pharmacy network of 101 location to 300 locations in 2018, after the company had posted a turnover of EUR380mn (USD432.71mn) in 2014 (Romania-Insider.com).

  • Romanian healthcare company Gral Medical registered a 12% y-o-y increase in turnover to reach EUR12mn (USD13.67mn) in H115, as one of the company's hospitals, OncoFort, has reported a 30% increase in revenues in H115 and the centres outside capital Bucharest saw a 35% rise in revenues y-o-y, reports Romania-Insider.com.

BMI Economic View

Planned VAT cuts will ensure that disinflationary pressures persist for longer in Romania than regional peers. However, the central bank will refrain from cutting rates below the current 1.75% level in 2016, due to strong underlying domestic demand and the risks of the economy overheating with further cuts.

BMI Political View

Romania's notoriously poor EU fund absorption rate will improve notably in the years ahead, providing a modest boost to long-term economic growth and convergence with more developed EU peers. Nevertheless, institutional inefficiencies and Romania's nascent level of development will prevent it repeating Poland's unrivalled success in utilising EU funds.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
23
Generic Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Romania 2011-2019)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Romania 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Romania 2013-2019)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Economic Activity (Romania 2010-2019)
39
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Index
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
40
Romania Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Table: Romanian Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
53
Healthcare System
55
Private Healthcare Provision
57
Healthcare Reform
58
Table: Healthcare Resources (Romania 2009-2014)
58
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Romania 2009-2014)
59
Table: Healthcare Activity (Romania 2009-2014)
59
Research And Development (R&D)
59
Clinical Trials
60
Regulatory Development
62
Pharmaceutical Advertising
62
Intellectual Property Regime
63
PhRMA Special 301 Submission
63
Corruption
65
Pricing Regime
66
Reimbursement Regime
67
Competitive Landscape
72
Pharmaceutical Sector
72
Generic Drugmakers
72
Research-Based Industry
73
Table: Members Of ARPIM, 2013
73
Pharmaceutical Company Developments
74
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
74
Pharmaceutical Retail
74
Company Profile
76
Actavis
76
Antibiotice Iasi
79
GlaxoSmithKline
82
Krka
85
LaborMed Pharma
87
Merck & Co
89
Novartis
91
Pfizer
93
Roche
95
Sanofi
97
Terapia Ranbaxy
99
Zentiva
102
Demographic Forecast
105
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Romania 1990-2025)
106
Table: Key Population Ratios (Romania 1990-2025)
106
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Romania 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group (Romania 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group % (Romania 1990-2025)
108
Glossary
110
Methodology
112
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Notes On Methodology
113
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
114
Index Overview
115
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
115
Indicator Weightings
116

The Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romania pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Romania, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.