Romania Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Romania Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Despite being one of the poorest countries in the EU, Romania possesses one of the most promising income growth outlooks. As a result, we are anticipating robust growth in household spending throughout our forecast period and this will equate to considerable gains for retailers, particularly those in the MGR sector. While the country's population is on the decline, the market remains large and less saturated when compared other countries in the region.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
National Sources/BMI

Key Views And Developments

  • We are forecasting household consumption to continue to improve, thanks to a healthier labour market and higher wages. This will be further supported by negative inflation (the latest figure came in at -0.7% for 2015), which will help boost real purchasing power.

  • The share of households in the USD10,000+ income bracket will double from 21.6% in 2016 to 45.6% in 2020, indicating one of the fastest income growth rates in Europe and strong opportunities for retailers.

  • In US dollar terms, total household spending will decline by 0.3% in 2016, as a result of the appreciating dollar. The local currency value of spending will expand by 3.7%.

  • Food & drink will remain the largest sub-sector, accounting for 26.7% of total household spending in 2016 as a result of low average income and households' dependence on groceries spending.

  • The population will shrink at an annual rate of 0.7% throughout the forecast period, resulting in a decrease of 525,000 people over the next five years. This is due to emigration and a decreasing birth rate.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
14
Table: Total Household Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
15
Table: Total Household Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Romania 2012-2019)
17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Romania 2012-2019)
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
18
Retail Sector Forecast
19
Food & Drinks
21
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
22
Clothing & Footwear
22
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
23
Household Goods
23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
24
Personal Care
25
Table: Personal Care Spending (Romania 2012-2019)
25
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
26
Table: Household Income Data (Romania 2012-2019)
27
Table: Labour Market Data (Romania 2012-2019)
30
Demographic Forecast
31
Table: Total Population (Romania 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Babies (Romania 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Young Children (Romania 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Children (Romania 2012-2019)
34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Romania 2012-2019)
34
Table: Population: Young People (Romania 2012-2019)
34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Romania 2012-2019)
35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Romania 2012-2019)
35
Table: Population: Young Adults (Romania 2012-2019)
35
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Romania 2012-2019)
36
Table: Population: Urban (Romania 2012-2019)
36
Macroeconomic Forecast
37
Economic Analysis
37
Table: Economic Activity (Romania 2010-2019)
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
43
Romania Risk/Reward Index
44
Rewards
44
Risks
45
Market Overview
47
Competitive Landscape
50
Mass Grocery Retail
50
Fashion
51
DIY
52
Consumer Electronics
52
Glossary
53
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.