BMI View: Despite being one of the poorest countries in the EU, Romania possesses one of the most promising income growth outlooks. As a result, we are anticipating robust growth in household spending throughout our forecast period and this will equate to considerable gains for retailers, particularly those in the MGR sector. While the country's population is on the decline, the market remains large and less saturated when compared other countries in the region.
|Headline Household Spending|
Key Views And Developments
We are forecasting household consumption to continue to improve, thanks to a healthier labour market and higher wages. This will be further supported by negative inflation (the latest figure came in at -0.7% for 2015), which will help boost real purchasing power.
The share of households in the USD10,000+ income bracket will double from 21.6% in 2016 to 45.6% in 2020, indicating one of the fastest income growth rates in Europe and strong opportunities for retailers.
In US dollar terms, total household spending will decline by 0.3% in 2016, as a result of the appreciating dollar. The local currency value of spending will expand by 3.7%.
Food & drink will remain the largest sub-sector, accounting for 26.7% of total household spending in 2016 as a result of low average income and households' dependence on groceries spending.
The population will shrink at an annual rate of 0.7% throughout the forecast period, resulting in a decrease of 525,000 people over the next five years. This is due to emigration and a decreasing birth rate.
The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.