BMI View: Romania continues to be one of the most promising markets in Central and Eastern Europe . The competition in the retail market is set to intensify as multiple chains are expanding their networks and household income is approaching the average income found in the EU . The country boasts one of the largest populations in the region and proactive market supervision institutions. However, the country's economic growth will slow down as the whole EU faces deflationary threats. We anticipate both the country's GDP and total household spending in US dollar terms to decline in 2015 and recover later into our forecast period.
Even though it remains one of the poorest countries in the EU, Romania has managed to benefit from the membership in the continent's prestigious economic bloc. It has been outperforming the union as its per capita GDP at market prices in euro terms grew from 23.3% of the bloc's average in 2007 when Romania joined the EU to 27.1% in 2013. We predict that the country will make significant advances in the next five years posting one of the highest GDP growth rates in the EU. However, the integration in the stalling economic bloc comes with risks - in order to avoid falling into a recession together with Western European countries, the Romanian government will have to diversify the country's exports with the overall economy while the retailers will have to find ways to rely less on imports as the Romanian leu continues to depreciate. Romania is also planning to join the eurozone in 2019. Obligation to meet the Maastricht Criteria would benefit the country's public finances and investment environment and the upcoming developments in the EU will show whether joining the euro zone would be beneficial as well.
The Romanian retail sector is undergoing a process of structural change. Traditional retail in the country is still widespread, even by Eastern European standards as only roughly 1.1% of more than 120,000 shops in the country are...
The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.