BMI View: In contrast with the majority of the EU countries, Romania has promising retail growth opportunities. The economy will be growing steadily stimulating household income and consumer spending. The Romanian retail sector is set to expand in volume and diversify as the country becomes increasingly more appealing to both domestic and foreign investors.
With more than 21mn people, Romania is one of the largest countries in the CEE, and has been growing faster than the bloc's average. BMI expects that real GDP in leu terms will rise by 3.3% this year and by 3.6% in 2016. Household spending will rise along with the overall economy as unemployment decreases and the middle class grows at one of the fastest rates in the continent. Average wage in the country is second lowest in the EU, however, it has grown by 25% since 2009 indicating the high rate at which the country's middle class is expanding.
We predict that the retail sector will grow substantially across all of the sub-sectors throughout the forecast period. The capital is a clear leader in the terms of generated retail sales and real estate developments, however, the smaller cities, like Brasov, are also starting to attract investments for new projects. Non-food retail is going to make substantial gains amidst the growing supply of retail space and improving economic conditions in the country. Grocery retailers will also be active in the market. The Romanian MGR sector will demonstrate an ability to innovate as the market's players experiment in finding retail synergies.
Currently, Romania is the EU's worst performing country in terms of online retail. Only 17.2% of all Internet users were buying goods or services online last year. However, total market revenue almost doubled in 2014. The largest online retailers are planning expansion this year as well with turnover growths expected to reach 20%-30%. Romania will have an exceptionally large online retail growth potential in 2015-2019, most of which is...
The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.