Romania Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Romania Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We believe that Romania will be one of the fastest-growing economies across the EU during the next year, supported by strong private consumption, a tightening labour market and rapidly rising wages. This will continue to attract new investors and prompt expansion of the existing players in the country's rapidly developing retail market thus intensifying competition across the board. That said, we note that Romania, especially its rural areas, remain some o f the poorest regions in the EU, and growth will come on a relatively low base.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI

Key Views And Developments

  • We forecast total retail sales growth (in USD terms) to average 7.9% over the next five years, with the pace accelerating towards the middle of the review period. Health and personal, insurance & other categories are expected to experience the strongest growth in terms of consumer spending.

  • Essentials share in the total spending pie is forecast to decline from 70.6% in 2015 to 70.1% in 2020. Food & drink along with housing & utilities will remain the two largest spending categories over the next five years, together making up more than 50% of the total spending.

  • Benefitting from VAT cuts in mid-2015 and early 2016, total retail sales in Romania registered 15.8% growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in May 2016. During the first five months of 2016, the sales of food, beverages and tobacco went up by 26.5% as compared to the same period last year.

  • As a part of its expansion strategy across Central and Eastern Europe, US-based fashion retailer Forever 21 plans to open its first store in Romania in September 2016. Run by the regional franchisee Teren Management Europe, the first 16,000 square metre outlet will be located in the new ParkLane shopping centre in central Bucharest.

  • Romania's second-largest drug stores/pharmacies brand Sensiblu is acquiring 73 Reteta pharmacies from Polisano Group. The transaction is subject for approval by Romania's competition authorities.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Headline Retail Forecast
11
Table: Total Household Spending (Romania 2013-2020)
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Romania 2013-2020)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Romania 2013-2020)
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Romania 2013-2020)
15
Retail Sector Forecast
17
Food, Drinks & Tobacco
19
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Romania 2013-2020)
20
Clothing & Footwear
20
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Romania 2013-2020)
21
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Romania 2013-2020)
22
Personal Care & Effects
23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Romania 2013-2020)
23
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Income Data (Romania 2013-2020)
26
Table: Labour Market Data (Romania 2013-2020)
28
Demographic Forecast
29
Table: Total Population (Romania 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Babies (Romania 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Young Children (Romania 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Children (Romania 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Romania 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Young People (Romania 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Romania 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Romania 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Young Adults (Romania 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Romania 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Urban (Romania 2013-2020)
35
Industry Risk/Reward Index
36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416
36
Romania Risk/Reward Index
37
Rewards
37
Risks
38
Market Overview
40
Competitive Landscape
47
Clothing & Footwear
47
Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers
47
Household Goods
48
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers
48
Electronics
48
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
48
Department Stores
49
Table: Selected Department Stores Retailers
49
E-Commerce
49
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers
49
Pharmacies
50
Table: Selected Pharmacies Retailers
50
Glossary
51
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.