BMI View: Following its IMF bailout in 2009, Romania quickly found a way to recovery . Now the country has one of the best GDP and household income growth outlooks among st the 28 EU countries. Romania's 21mn people market is among the largest and least saturated in the CEE. As the management of public f inances improves and wages rise , the country will be among the most rewarding destinations for investments into the retail sector in the region.
Strong economic growth will allow Romania to continue catching up with the rest of the EU countries in 2015. We forecast the country's real GDP to expand by 3.6% this year. While a part of this forecast can be attributed to a low inflation rate of -0.1%, the expansion of the country's output cannot be downplayed. The Romanian Ministry of Finance forecasts that the country's GDP will be rapidly catching up with the EU average: from 54% in 2015 to around 70% in 2010. Both domestic and foreign investors demonstrate their confidence in Romania's potential to solve its systemic problems, including corruption, emigration and poverty. The middle class is emerging in Romania, driven by the growing layer of young urban professionals who exhibit brand-consciousness and diverse spending patterns. The number of households in the USD10,000+ income bracket will double in the next four years indicating growth opportunities unparalleled by EU standards. As measured by household spending, the retail market is projected to expand by 33% between 2015 and 2019, driven especially by non-food sub-sectors whose growth will be driven by rising consumer confidence.
Optimistic growth projections will fuel investments in the retail sector. The whole industry remains highly underdeveloped by EU standards and is dominated by traditional retail. Vektor MF reported in 2014 that only around 1% of all groceries stores in Romania were operating as supermarkets, hypermarkets or discounters. The rest is owned by small businesses and families,...
The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.