BMI View: BMI is holding with its throughput forecasts for the Romanian port of Constantza for 2015 2016. We highlight however that the continued focus and investment at the port's dry bulk operations offers upside risk to these projections and over our medium term outlook.
We forecast growth in the port's total tonnage and container volumes will strengthen y-o-y in both 2015 and 2016. In 2015 we project the port's total tonnage volumes will expand by 3.7% to reach 57.7mn tonnes, a strengthening on the 0.9% y-o-y increase recorded in 2014. Container volumes at the port are estimated to expand by 3.8% in 2015 up from the 1.08% y-o-y increase recorded in 2014. 2016 will witness a further expansion in y-o-y growth in throughput at the port, with tonnage volumes projected to tick up by 4.1% and box volumes predicted to increase by 3.9%. This will see the port handle a forecast 60.1mn tonnes and 720,603TEUs in 2016.
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Constantza tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.7%.
2015 port of Constantza container throughput forecast to grow 3.8%.
2015 total trade growth forecast at 5.75%.
Key Industry Trends
Further Focus On Dry Bulk: Commodity trader's Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) acquisition for complete ownership of North Star Shipping and Minmetal in May 2015 will enable it to streamline its operations, with the company having greater control over its supply chain. This streamlining will enable it to transport more agri products and will have a positive impact on throughput at the port of Constantza, where the company will control 10 berths.
Risks to Outlook
The focus and investment that is underway at the port of Constantza's dry bulk operations offers upside risk to our medium term forecasts. ADM is the latest agribusiness company to acquire assets at the port. The company joins Canopus Star, a joint venture between grain trader Cargill Inc. and freight handler Transport Trade Services (TTS) and Nidera, who already boast operations at the port.
Agribusiness companies' interest in the port stems from the facility's role not only in Romania's dry bulk supply chain, but also because it plays a role in that of Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary. Having greater control over their logistics network is also attractive to agribusiness companies as it enables them to create seamless supply chains and cut costs. It also allows them to invest directly in the facilities and boost their throughput levels. Investment to date in the port of Constantza's dry bulk operations have already boosted throughput levels and have led to the port becoming one of Europe's largest grain hubs.