Russia Agribusiness Report

Published 30 July 2015

  • 91 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Russia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Growth in the Russian agricultural sector will remain weaker over the next few years relative to previous years as a result of the poor macro economic climate . A poorer fiscal outlook will reduce government support for the dairy industry and subsidies for crop producers. That said, the country's ban on agricultural imports from certain countries will provide a boon to production over the coming months, as domestic producers take advantage of the lack of competitive imports. Grain production will decline considerably y ear -o n -y ear in 2015/16 due to much lower yields owing to a large rise in agricultural input costs.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 201 3 /1 4 to 2018/19: 14.7 % to 59.8mn tonnes. Yield gains and better access to export markets in Asia will lead to wheat production growth despite a large decline in the 2015/16 season.

  • Cheese consumption growth 201 4 to 2019: 17.9% to 787,400 tonnes. Cheese demand will be considerably affected in the coming months owing to the country's agricultural imports ban, though will pick up following the end of the ban.

  • Poultry production growth 2013 /1 4 to 2018/19: 25.4 % to 4.0 mn tonnes. Poultry production growth will outperform that of both pork and beef as domestic consumption will be relatively higher. However, government subsidy schemes are likely to be postponed owing to fiscal constraints.

  • 2015 real GDP contraction: 4.0 % (compared to growth of 0.6% in 2014).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 14.5 % average (up from 7.8% average in 2014).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: -0.9% y-o-y to USD77.1bn in 2015/16, forecast to grow on average 1.2% annually between 2015/16 and 2018/19.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2019)
13
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
16
Grains Outlook
17
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
18
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
19
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
22
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
22
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
22
Dairy Outlook
24
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
25
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
25
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
25
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
27
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
28
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
28
Livestock Outlook
30
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
31
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
31
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
31
Table: Russia - Beef, Pork & Poultry Imports
35
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
36
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
37
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Russia 2009-2014)
37
Commodities Forecast
39
Monthly Softs Strategy
39
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States
43
Monthly Grains Strategy
44
Table: Grain Prices With Select Metrics (USc/bushel)
45
Upstream Analysis
47
Europe GM Outlook
47
Europe Machinery Outlook
53
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
55
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
58
Downstream Analysis
64
Food
64
Food Consumption
64
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2012-2019)
65
Drink
66
Alcoholic Drinks
66
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019)
67
Soft Drinks
68
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Russia 2014-2019)
69
Hot Drinks
70
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019)
71
Mass Grocery Retail
72
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Russia 2006-2015)
73
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Russia 2006-2015)
73
Table: Russia Top 10 Food Retailers - FY12
73
Regional Overview
75
Competitive Landscape
82
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
82
Demographic Forecast
83
Demographic Outlook
83
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
84
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
84
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
85
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
85
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)
86
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sector-Specific Methodology
89

The Russia Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Russia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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