BMI View: We hold the view that imports from the EU will resume in H216. We are positive about the poultry and pork sectors of Russia, as consumer demand is growing and domestic production is looking to bridge the gap from imports until H216 . We maintain our forecasts for 2016/17 in light of the uncertainty surrounding the wheat export tax. Out to 2019/20, we expect corn output to outperform the grains complex owing to continued government support and export opportunities. We have revised upward out production forecasts for milk, butter and cheese in 2015/16 due to the boost provided by the food import ban. Afterwards, dairy producers will face lower subsidies and lower prices which will lay the foundations for consolidation in the industry.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Poultry production will grow by 4.2% y-o-y to reach 3.7mn tonnes in 2016, whereas poultry demand will decline by 1.0% to 3.7mn tonnes.
Pork production will rise by 5.0% y-o-y in 2016, reaching 2.8mn tonnes, while pork consumption will decline by 2.0% to reach 2.8mn tonnes.
Corn production will decline slightly by 3.0% y-o-y in 2016/17 due to base effects to 13.1mn tonnes. Corn demand growth will slow as consumption will reach 9.6mn tonnes, growing by 3.0% annually.
Wheat production will grow by 1.6% in 2016/17 to reach 62.0mn tonnes, whereas domestic demand will rise by 1.5% to reach 37.6mn tonnes.
We maintain our forecasts for 2016/17 in light of the uncertainty surrounding the wheat export tax. Out to 2019/20, we expect corn output to outperform the grains complex owing to continued government support and export opportunities.
We have revised upward out production forecasts for milk, butter and cheese in 2015/16 due to the boost provided by the food import ban. Afterwards, dairy producers will face lower subsidies and lower prices which will lay the foundations for consolidation in the industry. We believe the government will struggle to maintain subsidies for dairy production as well as for capital investments in dairy farms in light of our downward revision to the country's GDP in 2016.
We are forecasting consumption in poultry, pork and beef to contract in 2016 due to elevated prices owing to the trade restrictions reducing the supply of meat available to Russian consumers. The production of poultry and pork will see positive gains as domestic farmers look to fill the gap in imports until H216. Beef production will contract in 2016, before turning positive in 2018.
The Russia Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Russia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.