Russia Autos Report

Published 27 February 2015

  • 79 pages
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Russia Autos Report

BMI View: BMI has become even more negative on the near-term outlook for the Russian autos sector over the past quarter. A worsening mix of falling consumer confidence, currency fluctuations, growing unemployment and falling fixed investment will increase uncertainty in the economy over 2015. We are now targeting a 21.8% fall in sales and an 11.1%% fall in production in 2015.

In 2014, sales of light vehicles fell by 10.3%, to 2,491,404, according to figures from the Association of European Businesses (AEB). The sales slump came as Russia's economy slipped into recession caused by a variety of factors, including international financial sanctions imposed on the country in response to the Ukraine crisis, resulting currency weakness, a slump in the global price of oil over H214, as well as sluggish fixed investment and private consumption levels.

Looking forward, BMI believes that Russia's automotive industry will experience a sharper slowdown in 2015, as the government's previously-announced efforts to buoy the market (such as the extension of the car scrappage scheme) will fail to address the key problems of rising inflation and the increasingly unaffordable costs of borrowing. We therefore forecast vehicle sales to fall by 21.8% in 2015, with passenger cars (-22%) set to fare slightly worse than commercial vehicles (-19%).

Turning to the macroeconomic backdrop, following the sharp drop in global oil prices over Q414 and the resulting run on the rouble, Russia's outlook has clearly worsened for 2015. BMI's Country Risk team now forecasts a substantial 5.2% contraction in real GDP as rampant inflation and rising borrowing costs erode consumer purchasing power and confidence. This general downturn will feed heavily into the new vehicle market, which we now forecast to fall by 21.8% in 2015 to 1,913,085 vehicles; revised from our previous forecast of a 7% decline.

We believe the government's previously-announced RUB20bn extension of the vehicle scrappage scheme...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
15
Sales
16
Production
19
Trade
22
Passenger Vehicles
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
23
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 2013
24
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 4M14
25
Commercial Vehicles
27
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
27
Suppliers
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Table: Europe Industry Risk Rewards Ratings Table
45
Company Profile
46
Company Monitor- Honda Europe
46
AvtoVaz
48
Ford Motor
52
General Motors Company
55
Regional Overview
58
Global Industry Overview
61
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
61
European Growth Gathers Momentum
61
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
63
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
64
Demographic Forecast
67
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
68
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
69
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
70
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecasts
71
Sector-Specific Methodology
72
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
73
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
74

The Russia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc