Russia Autos Report

Published 04 June 2015

  • 73 pages
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$1,295.00
Russia Autos Report

BMI has become even more negative on the near-term outlook for the Russian autos sector over the past quarter. A worsening mix of falling consumer confidence, currency fluctuations, growing unemployment and falling fixed investment will force down vehicle sales and production in 2015 and keep sales volumes weak through to the end of our five-year forecast period in 2019. We are now targeting a 29.1% fall in sales and an 18.9% fall in production in 2015.

Looking forward, BMI believes that Russia's automotive industry will experience a sharper sales slowdown in 2015 than the 10.3% slump in vehicle sales seen in 2014. The government's announced efforts to buoy the market - such as the extension of the car scrappage scheme and subsidised auto loans scheme - will fail to address the key problems in the industry. The most pressing of these problems being: (a) rising vehicle prices, (b) worsening private consumption factors, (c) declining corporate investment. We therefore forecast vehicle sales to fall by 29.1% in 2015, with passenger cars (-29.1%) set to fare slightly worse than commercial vehicles (-28.6%).

With vehicle production heavily oriented towards domestic consumption we also hold a bearish view on vehicle production in the country over 2015. We forecast production of new vehicles to fall 18.9% to a five-year low of 1.529mn vehicles thanks to tumbling domestic demand and the weakness in the Russian rouble, which has raised input costs for automakers in the country. Highlighting this have been the large numbers of cuts to automakers' workforces and the more drastic decision by General Motors Company (GM) to cut cease production indefinitely. Given this bleak outlook, we forecast passenger car and commercial vehicle output in 2015 to fall by 20.1% and 9.1%, respectively. This represents an acceleration of declines seen in 2014 when production fell by 13.6%.

Despite slowdowns in production we stress that there will still be investment and revenue...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2019)
15
Sales
15
Production
18
Trade
21
Passenger Vehicles
22
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2019)
22
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 2014
23
Table: Russia - Sales By Brand in 4M15, Units
24
Commercial Vehicles
27
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2019)
27
Suppliers
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Russia 2012-2019)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Europe - Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Index
43
Company Profile
45
Company Monitor
45
VW: Piech Out As VW Looks For Global Lead
45
PSA: Family Feud Clouds Ownership Future
45
Renault: Increased Government Influence Shakes Alliance
46
AvtoVaz
48
Ford Motor
52
General Motors Company
55
Regional Overview
57
Industry Trend Analysis
57
Global Industry Overview
60
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
60
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
60
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
62
Asia Carries The BRIC States
63
Demographic Forecast
65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
66
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
66
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)
68
Methodology
70
Industry Forecasts
70
Sector-Specific Methodology
71
Sources
71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
72
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
73

The Russia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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