BMI has become even more negative on the near-term outlook for the Russian autos sector over the past quarter. A worsening mix of falling consumer spending, currency fluctuations, growing unemployment and falling fixed investment will force down vehicle sales and production in 2015 and 2016 while keeping sales volumes weak through to the end of our five-year forecast period in 2019. We are now targeting a 34.3% fall in sales and a 24.6% fall in production in 2015. In 2016, sales will begin to recover, growing by 10.2% from a low base, but production will continue its decline, falling a further 3.1%.
Looking forward, BMI believes that Russia's automotive industry will experience a sharper sales slowdown in 2015 than the 10.3% slump in vehicle sales seen in 2014. The government's announced efforts to buoy the market - such as the extension of the car scrappage scheme and subsidised auto loans scheme - will fail to address the key problems in the industry. The most pressing of these problems being: (a) rising vehicle prices, (b) worsening private consumption factors, (c) declining corporate investment, especially in heavy industries such as construction, oil and gas sectors.
With vehicle production heavily oriented towards domestic consumption we also hold a bearish view on vehicle production in the country over 2015. We forecast production of new vehicles to fall to a five-year low of 1.422mn vehicles thanks to tumbling domestic demand and the weakness in the Russian rouble, which has raised input costs for automakers in the country. Highlighting this have been the large numbers of cuts to automakers' workforces and the more drastic decision by General Motors Company (GM) to cut cease production indefinitely. Over our full five-year forecast period, we project that production growth will average -0.1% through to 2019 as weak domestic demand and slowing investment into automotive plants weigh on Russia's outlook.
Despite slowdowns in production we stress that...
The Russia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.