BMI View: We extended the forecast for Russia's IT Market to 2019 in the Q2 2015 update, but our assessment of medium term growth prospects remains unchanged. We expect conditions to be very challenging in 2015as a result of the negative impact of sanctions imposed in 2014 , which resulted in rouble depreciation and undermined domestic confidence levels. We expect growth to be maintained in local currency terms over the medium term, but the US dollar growth outlook is much weaker. Meanwhile, another area where political factors are contributing to uncertainty is regulation of the internet, which could also result in the industry losing its lustre. Our short-term outlook is weaker following our macroeconomic and IT forecast downgrades, however our core view is for an easing of tensions over the medium term, which will allow the Russian economy and IT market to return to a stronger growth trajectory.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: RUB507.6bn in 2014 to RUB515.8bn in 2015, +1.6% in local currency terms. A combination of depreciation, recession and demand being brought forward to 2014 ahead of anticipated price increases have resulted in a sharp deterioration of the hardware growth spending outlook, with decline of over 22% forecast in US dollar terms.
Software Sales: RUB198.1bn in 2014 to RUB212.6bn in 2015, +7.3% in local currency terms. Demand for software from the modernisation initiatives of Russian enterprises will be met by local and global vendors, limiting market disruption relative to hardware sales.
IT Services Sales: RUB289.6bn in 2014 to RUB313.7bn in 2015, +8.3% in local currency terms. New regulations requiring domestic data storage could delay the development of cloud computing supply, but with vendor investment in local presence due to the size of Russia's market, any downside should be short-term.
Key Trends And Developments
One area of disruption following the imposition of sanctions, and the NSA...
The Russia Information Technology Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's Russia Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Russian IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.