Russia Information Technology Report

Published 10 July 2015

  • 98 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Russia Information Technology Report

BMI View: W e downgraded our forecast for Russian IT market growth in the Q3 15 update to reflect the weaker economic outlook - with recession and sharp rouble depreciation forecast to result in local currency contraction, and a sharp fall in the IT market in US dollar terms. We expect growth to return in local currency terms from 2016, but accelerate from 2017 as the economic environment becomes more supportive. There is , however , downside risk to this scenario , with political factors having the potential to generate uncertainty , for instance data localisation requirements and the government's increased strategic value on achieving technological independence .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Computer Hardware Sales: RUB507.6bn in 2014 to RUB471.3bn in 2015, -7.2% in local currency terms. Forecast downgraded in Q315 to reflect the weaker outlook for the rouble, while the fact demand was brought forward to 2014 ahead of anticipated price increases adds to the drag on spending.

  • Software Sales: RUB198.1bn in 2014 to RUB196.1bn in 2015, -1.0% in local currency terms. Demand for software from the modernisation initiatives of Russian enterprises will be met by local and global vendors, limiting market disruption relative to hardware sales, but the decline in purchasing power and confidence levels will mean the market contracts in 2015.

  • IT Services Sales: RUB289.6bn in 2014 to RUB284.7bn in 2015, -1.7% in local currency terms. New regulations requiring domestic data storage could delay the development of cloud computing supply, but with vendor investment in local presence due to the size of Russia's market, any downside should be short-term and IT services is forecast to be the outperforming segment over the medium term.

Key Trends And Developments

The Russian data localisation law is presenting challenges to vendors operating across all three segments of the IT market. In June 2015, it was reported in Russian business newspaper...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
IT SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2019)
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Economic Activity (Russia 2010-2019)
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Industry Risk Reward Index
29
Table: Europe IT RRIs, Q3 2015
31
Market Overview
32
Hardware
32
Software
41
Cloud Computing
47
Table: Russia Cloud Vendor Developments, 2014-2015
52
Services
53
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Regulatory Development
64
Table: IT Authorities
64
Competitive Landscape
68
International Companies
68
Table: Lenovo
68
Table: Foxconn
69
Table: Huawei Technologies
70
Local Companies
71
Table: Kaspersky Lab
71
Table: Mail
72
Company Profile
73
DEPO Computer
73
IBS Group
76
Table: IBS Group Sales Breakdown (USDmn)
79
Kraftway
81
NCC
83
Regional Overview
86
Europe
86
Demographic Forecast
89
Demographic Outlook
89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
90
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
90
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)
92
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Sources
95
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
96
Table: It Risk/Reward Index Indicators
97
Table: Weighting Of Components
98

The Russia Information Technology Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.

BMI's Russia Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Russian IT market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

  • IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
  • Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).

Information Technology Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Country Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecast

BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).

Sources

The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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