BMI View: We have left our forecasts for the Russian IT market unchanged in our Q1 2016 report update after undertaking multiple revisions in 2015. We made multiple downgrades in 2015 to account for the tougher economic climate, international sanctions and the steep depreciation of the rouble against the US dollar. As a result of these conditions , 2014 and 2015 saw a significant contraction in dollar terms. In 2016, we believe the market will begin to grow positively in US dollar terms after two years of massive contraction. Sanctions impact vendors asymmetrically, for instance US vendors are most likely to suffer due to reputational damage, with IT products and solutions increasingly seen through the lens of national security by both the US and the Russian government. As a result , we expect Chinese server and storage vendors to capitalise on increased demand in Russia, which could also have implications for software vendors over the medium term. W e expect growth to return in local currency terms from 2016, but with a more significant acceleration from 2017 onwards as the economic environment becomes more supportive, offering some growth potential in the latter years of our forecast. There is, however, downside risk to this scenario owing to tense US-Russian relations , while political factors also present risks to vendors ; for instance , data localization requirements and the government's increased strategic emphasis on achieving technological independence .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Overall IT market Value in 2016: RUB1trn (up5.2% y-o-y)
Hardware market Value in 2016: RUB490.8bn (up4.1% y-o-y)
Software Market Value in 2016: RUB203bn (up 3.7% y-o-y)
IT Services Value in 2016: RUB307.5bn (up 8% y-o-y)
|Depreciation A Drag On IT Market Performance|
|Russian IT Market Demand, RUB vs USD|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
The Russia Information Technology Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's Russia Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Russian IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.