BMI View: The IT market recovered from lows in H116, following its plunge in US dollar terms in 2016 After IT market plunged in US dollar terms in 2015 . However, the medium term outlook for growth is modest and we do not envisage a sustained acceleration in spending growth. The subdued economic outlook is one factor, and the weaker rouble could have a long term impact by promoting more cost-competitive domestic software and services solutions. There is also substantial uncertainty due to Russian economic performance correlating with the oil price, as well as the path for US-Russia relations around which there are several potential flashpoints.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Hardware: RUB476.9bn in 2016 to RUB539.0bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1%. A declining population and sluggish purchasing power growth, as well as potential PC cannibalisation by smartphones, means the hardware segment is forecast to underperform.
Software: RUB200.0bn in 2016 to RUB240.2bn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.7%. Russian software vendors have benefited from depreciation, and as local capacity is scaled up we expect the software segment to accelerate to meet the demand of Russian public and private sector clients.
Services: RUB296.3bn in 2016 to RUB395.2bn in 2020, a CAGR of 7.5%. There are regulatory risks, for instance Russian data localisation requirements, but these are positive for cloud services in the short-run provided the government does not further expand initiatives for technological sovereignty that could become disruptive.
|Depreciation Erodes The Competitiveness Of Global Vendors|
|Russian IT Spending Forecast, RUB vs USD|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
The Russia Information Technology Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's Russia Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Russian IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.