Russia Infrastructure Report

Published 07 May 2015

  • 88 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Russia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We have further downgraded our construction industry forecast for Russia in 2015 from -5.4% to -7.1% this quarter. This is on the back of a wors e tha n expected industry contraction in 2014 and the increasing impact of international sanctions and falling oil prices on Russia's economy.

Key Trend And Developments

  • Developments have prompted our Country Risk team to revise down our GDP growth forecasts for Russia to a 5.2% contraction in 2015. Russia's annexation of Crimea and perceived belligerence towards Ukraine, in addition to falling oil prices, have triggered significant rouble volatility and massive private net capital outflows. The flight of capital, which could have otherwise been deployed to productive investment domestically, has worsened the investment outlook.

  • Russia's actions in Ukraine have resulted in sanctions from the EU which target loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB). We expect these sanctions will have a significant impact on the Russian government's capacity to fund infrastructure projects. In fact, credit availability has declined as reflected in the 'credit availability' component of Russia's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

  • The impact of Russia's weakening macroeconomics has started to be felt on infrastructure projects. A metro line connecting central Moscow to the south-west of the city has been put on hold due to a rise in the cost of importing building materials - a result of the drop in the value of the Russian rouble against the US dollar since January 2015. This is in addition to Finnish firm Lemminkainen deciding to withdraw from its role as developer in a proposed 2,000 apartment project with Lipsanen & Co Group in Vasily Island, St Petersburg, in April 2014.

  • Further, the Russian government cancelled two projects - Taman Port and Lena Bridge - to free resources to fund their investment projects in Crimea's infrastructure. In turn,...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (2013-2018)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (2019-2024)
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (2013-2018)
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (2019-2024)
20
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
21
Harsh Investor Climate
27
Major Projects Table - Transport
29
Table: Key Projects Database - Transport
29
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
36
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (2013-2018)
36
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (2019-2024)
37
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
38
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
44
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
44
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview
49
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (2013-2018)
49
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (2019-2024)
49
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Outlook and Overview
49
New Policies
55
Go East
57
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects
58
Table: Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects
58
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
61
Russia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
61
Russia Risk/Reward Index
61
Rewards
61
Risks
62
EU Funding To Spur Growth In CEE
63
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
70
Market Overview
71
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Competitive Landscape
71
Company Profile
74
Mostootryad No
74
Global Industry Overview
76
Industry Trend Analysis
76
Table: Multilaterals And Development Bank Infrastructure Support Programmes
80
Methodology
82
Industry Forecast Methodology
82
Sector-Specific Methodology
83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
87
Sector-Specific Methodology
88
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
88
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
89

The Russia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Russia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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