Russia Infrastructure Report

Published 04 February 2015

  • 90 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We forecast a contraction of 5.4% real growth in Russia's construction industry in 2015 on the back of international sanctions and falling oil prices. Private investment - which is critical for infrastructure development in Russia - has declined severely as the Russian economy weakens in line with the country's business environment.

Key Trend And Developments

  • Developments have prompted our Country Risk team to revise down our GDP growth forecasts for Russia from 0.5% real growth to a 5.6% contraction in 2015. Russia's annexation of Crimea and perceived belligerence towards Ukraine, in addition to falling oil prices, have triggered significant rouble volatility and massive private net capital outflows. The flight of capital, which could have otherwise been deployed to productive investment domestically, has worsened the investment outlook.

  • Russia's actions in Ukraine have resulted in sanctions from the EU which target loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB). We expect these sanctions will have a significant impact on the Russian government's capacity to fund infrastructure projects. In fact, credit availability has started to decline as reflected in the 'credit availability' component of Russia's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

  • The impact of Russia's weakening macroeconomics has started to be felt on infrastructure projects. A metro line connecting central Moscow to the south-west of the city has been put on hold due to a rise in the cost of importing building materials - a result of the drop in the value of the Russian rouble against the US dollar since January.

  • Further, the Russian government cancelled two projects - Taman Port and Lena Bridge - to free resources to fund their investment projects in Crimea's infrastructure. In turn, President Putin directed the government agencies responsible for major construction projects to build a bridge across the Kerch Strait...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
20
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
20
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
22
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
23
Harsh Investor Climate
28
Major Projects Table - Transport
30
Table: Key Projects Database - Transport
30
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
39
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2012-2017)
39
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2018-2023)
40
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
41
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
46
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
46
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview
53
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
53
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
53
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Outlook and Overview
53
New Policies
56
The Consumer Story
59
Go East
59
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects
60
Table: Residential / Non-Residential Key Projects
60
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
64
Russia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
64
Russia Risk/Reward Index
64
Rewards
64
Risks
65
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
66
Limited Access To Funding
70
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk Reward Index
71
Market Overview
72
Competitive Landscape
72
Table: Competitive Landscape
72
Company Profile
75
Mostootryad No
75
Global Industry Overview
77
Table: Construction Industry Value, Real Terms, % Change
78
Table: BMI's Top 5 Markets
82
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Sector-Specific Methodology
85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Sector-Specific Methodology
90
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
91

The Russia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Russia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc