Russia Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Russia Mining Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Russia Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Russia's g old and coal production growth will be the sector's relative bright spots , while P GM's and iron ore output growth will grind to a halt . Low metal prices , the country's inadequate infrastructure and Western sanctions will continue to limit the sector's production growth.

Russia Mining Industry Value
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 153.90 144.80 153.90 160.50 169.00 175.10
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -17.68 -5.86 6.27 4.29 5.29 3.62
Russia Mining Industry Value
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 153.90 140.20 145.90 153.40 160.70 167.40
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -17.68 -8.87 4.08 5.10 4.80 4.17

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • The gradual re-orientation of Russia's coal exports from Europe to Asia will be driven by growing demand for both thermal and coking coal in the latter region ( see 'Russia Eyes The East', February 10 2015).

  • Russia's gold production growth will slow as the country's unfavourable regulatory environment towards foreign investment will deter new miners from entering the sector and limit new projects from coming online. While we expect gold prices to edge higher, prices will not recover to 2011-2014 heights over our forecast period to 2020.

  • We expect gold prices to continue edging higher in the coming quarters, as weak economic growth and higher inflation keep real interest rates low in major developed markets. We have slightly raised our 2017 average price forecast from USD1,350/oz to USD1,400/oz.

  • We have revised up our iron ore forecasts to 2020. We expect iron ore prices to average USD53.0/tonne during 2016 and USD45.0/tonne in 2017, up from our previous forecasts of USD48.0/tonne and USD43.0/tonne, respectively. Our upwards revision is predicated on the strong H116 iron ore price rally due to increasing demand from Chinese steel mills ( see: 'Iron Ore: Prices To Retest Lows In 2017', August 2).

  • Besides low palladium prices, the Russian government will continue to have an influential role in dictating the amount of palladium supply exiting the country, thus restricting the sector's growth prospects. Moreover, the country's high barriers to entry and restrictive regulation will discourage foreign miners from entering the mining sector.

  • The country's platinum output growth will contract and average an annual 0.5% decline during 2016-2020, due to both declining ore grades and a lack of new projects coming online over the coming years. We forecast the country's annual output growth to contract slightly during 2016-2020. We expect Russia's platinum production to decrease from 0.81moz in 2016 to 0.79moz by 2020.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Russia Mining Industry Value
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Coal: Growth To Be Supported By Eastwards Drive
11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Russia 2015-2020)
11
Table: Russia - Distance From Coal Production Area To Shipping Seaport
18
Gold: Rouble Weakness To Support Output
20
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Russia 2012-2020)
20
Iron Ore: Subdued Growth Ahead
24
Table: Iron Ore Production (Russia, 2014-2020)
24
Nickel: Tough Times Ahead For Miners
29
Table: Russia - Nickel Mine Production Forecast
29
Palladium: Gradual Growth In Coming Years
33
Table: Palladium Production
33
Platinum: Reserves Offer Growth Potential In The Long Term
36
Table: Russia - Platinum Production
36
Table: Russia - Largest Platinum Projects
36
Industry Risk/Reward Index
40
Russia Risk/Reward Index
40
Europe: Risk/Reward Index
41
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index
42
Regulatory Development
43
Commodities Forecast
47
Commodities Outlook
47
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
47
Competitive Landscape
48
Table: Russia - Key Financial Data
49
Company Profile
51
Polyus Gold
51
Table: Polyus Gold - Financial Data
53
SUEK
55
Table: SUEK Subsidiaries
57
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel
60
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
62
Company Analysis
62
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Projects
66
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
68
Regional Overview
69
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sources
77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
79

The Russia Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Russia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.