Russia Power Report

Published 12 May 2015

  • 89 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Power Report

BMI View : A severe economic contraction will destroy demand for electricity in Russia and weigh heavily on investment and profitability in the utilities sector in 2015. A combination of a weakened currency and rising inflation will suffocate consumer demand , while tight credit conditions in reaction to this inflationary pressure will restrict funding for projects in the power sector.

The outlook for domestic and foreign utilities operating in the Russian power market in 2015 is bleak and the operating environment will remain challenging. Our Country Risk team forecast the economy will contract by 5.2% in 2015 as a combination of a weakened currency and rising inflation will suffocate consumer demand. At the same time, tight credit conditions in reaction to this inflationary pressure will severely restrict business activity across all areas of the economy.

This means there is limited upside to our outlook for the Russian economy - and by extension the power market and electricity demand growth. Domestic electricity demand remains highly correlated with industrial output in Russia and, as such, we forecast electricity generation will contract 2.3% in 2015. In addition to weaker demand, tightening credit conditions are a direct risk to domestic utilities. A series of downgrades to Russia's credit rating (and the ratings of some Russian utilities themselves) over late 2014/early 2015 - to just above 'junk status' will further raise borrowing costs for domestic utilities. This risks starving the power sector of much-needed funding for new, more efficient generation capacity.

This will present significant challenges for domestic utilities such as Inter Rao, RusHydro, Gazprom and Rossetti, as well as foreign firms like E.ON and Fortum, which have domestic subsidiaries. We do not expect an exodus of foreign owned power companies, but we do expect them to repatriate any profits rather than reinvest in assets during this period of volatility.

Key Trends And...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Russia Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Russia Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2019-2024)
16
Electricity Consumption
32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2019-2024)
32
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Export
33
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
33
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2019-2024)
34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk/Reward Index
37
Industry Risk Reward Index
37
Russia Power Risk/Reward Index
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Key Policies And Market Structure
44
Regulation And Competition
44
Sustainable Energy Policies
45
Pricing
46
Russia Power Projects Database
49
Table: Major Projects - Power
49
Competitive Landscape
54
Federal Grid Company (FGC)
54
Inter RAO UES
55
Gazprom Energoholding
55
E
56
Enel
57
Company Profile
58
E
58
Inter RAO
71
Regional Overview
75
CEE Power Regional Overview
75
Glossary
82
Table: Glossary Of Terms
82
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Sources
86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
86
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
88

The Russia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Russia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Russia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc