BMI View: A deep economic contraction, a weakened rouble and tight credit conditions in Russia will continue to halt utility investments in new domestic power capacity. In addition, a sustained period of contraction in the manufacturing sector will curb growth in electricity consumption.
The worst may now have passed for the Russian economy but we emphasise that the economic outlook remains bleak - with our Country Risk team forecasting a contraction of 4% in 2015 - and there will significant implications for the power sector. We highlight that elevated borrowing costs - a symptom of tight credit conditions and ratings downgrades - will limit utilities' willingness to borrow to fund investment in new capacity. In addition, a sustained period of contraction in the manufacturing sector will curb electricity demand growth, weighing on utilities' margins.
Key Trends And Developments:
Russia froze tariff growth on state-regulated services including gas and electricity in 2014 - in an effort to ease pressure on household budgets and help lower inflation. We expect weak domestic growth and a freeze on electricity and gas tariff growth to further depress the outlook for Russian power generators such as Inter Rao, Gazprom and Finland's Fortum.
We maintain that Russian energy policy is orientating eastwards towards China in the wake of deteriorating relations with Europe. This will feed through into the power sector, where we have already seen projects mooted that would deliver export electricity flows to the Chinese market - presumably with backing from Chinese investors.
In July 2015, Russia's energy ministry signed a contract worth up to RUB47.3bn (USD830mn) for the construction of energy infrastructure in Crimea. An electricity cable will be laid along the bottom of the Kerch Strait to connect Crimea with Russia's southern Krasnodar region by end-2020, according to the tender published on the Russian government's official procurement website (cited by news...
The Russia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Russia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).