Russia Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Russia Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our ten-year forecast for the Russian power sector remains muted - despite the country's rich resource endowment and size of its market. As a contracting economy, a weakened ruble and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty keep a hold of the country, development projects of Russia's power sector encounter increasing financial and political headwinds.

Headline Power Forecasts (Russia 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 981.190 987.680 998.960 1,001.220 1,014.670 1,019.850 1,043.370
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 850.6 849.8 860.8 870.3 880.7 890.4 903.8
Capacity, Net, MW 245,627.8 248,621.0 249,636.6 252,070.9 255,623.8 257,893.9 262,452.9

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The broader economic and political backdrop frames our views on the Russian power sector in 2016. The annexation of Crimea and perceived Russian belligerence towards the West has shattered investor confidence and will deter significant foreign investment. Meanwhile, global oil prices of below USD30/bbl in early 2016 (expected to remain around USD40/bbl for 2016) have made the government's budget assumptions untenable, which will necessitate further spending cuts. At the same time, tight credit conditions - exacerbated by international sanctions - will drag on economic growth.

  • Weak electricity demand will result in overcapacity and feed into lower capacity payments in some of Russia's wholesale electricity pricing zones - weighing on the margins of utilities. Russia awards capacity payments to existing power plants - through competitive auctions to ensure plants remain capable of dispatch during periods of high electricity demand. Capacity auction payments for 2016 in Russia's first pricing zone (spanning European Russia and the Urals) fell 15.3% y-o-y on account of overcapacity amid weak demand.

  • Providing electricity supply to the annexed Crimea region will remain high on Russia's agenda, as Moscow looks to integrate the peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin switched on two power lines in late December 2015, with plans to turn on another two in 2016. In November and December 2015, Crimea was facing serious electricity shortages as a result of bomb blasts - carried out by unidentified assailants - which destroyed two pylons in Ukraine on November 22 2015.

  • Georgia, Iran, Armenia and Russia agreed in April 2016 to create a joint electricity market by 2019. The market will initially be open for large-scale users who use high-voltage networks. Following a successful first stage, the market may be liberalised for small and medium power users.

  • We have largely retained our forecasts for sluggish growth in thermal-fired power generation over our 10-year forecast period on account of generation overcapacity in some of Russia's electricity pricing zones, weak electricity demand and a deteriorating economic environment. We expect gas-fired electricity generation to register muted annual average growth of 1.07% between 2016 and 2025 - and maintain a steady 45% share of the generation mix over the next decade amid limited expansion in renewables and nuclear capacity.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Russia 2015-2021)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Russia Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2015-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2020-2025)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Russia Power Forecast Scenario
12
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast
15
Table: Russia's Energy Strategy 2030
17
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019)
25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025)
26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019)
27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025)
28
Electricity Consumption
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019)
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025)
29
Transmission & Distribution, Import And Export
30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019)
33
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025)
33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019)
33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025)
33
Industry Risk/Reward Index
34
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index
40
Russia Power Risk/Reward Index
40
Rewards
40
Risks
41
Market Overview
42
Key Policies And Market Structure
42
Regulation And Competition
42
Sustainable Energy Policies
43
Pricing
44
Russia Power Projects Database
46
Competitive Landscape
50
Federal Grid Company (FGC)
50
Inter RAO UES
51
Gazprom Energoholding
51
E
52
Enel
52
Company Profile
54
Inter RAO
54
E
58
Regional Overview
67
CEE Power Regional Overview
67
Glossary
74
Table: Glossary Of Terms
74
Methodology
75
Methodology And Sources
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sources
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
78
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
80

The Russia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Russia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Russia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).